Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants Picks and Prediction - September 21, 2025
A pair of teams looking to get off the mat meet up on Sunday night in the Meadowlands and we’re making sure you are ready for this one with our Chiefs vs. Giants predictions. Kansas City (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) lost the Super Bowl rematch with Philadelphia, 20-17, as +1 underdogs at home. New York (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) dropped a 40-37 tilt against Dallas on the road as +5.5 underdogs. Kickoff from MetLife Stadium is scheduled for 8:20 EST and be sure to check out all of our Free NFL Picks.
Chiefs trying to regain some shine
Chirps have begun to fly around about the Chiefs' dynasty having one foot in the grave following their 0-2 SU start to the season. While they have certainly had their moments, it hasn’t been all bad. Their defense played well against the Eagles, allowing only 216 total yards in the loss. The offense had 294 total yards but entered the red zone only twice and scored once.
After two games, the Kansas City offense sits 18th in the league with an average of 320.5 total yards to go with their 19 points per game. The passing attack is averaging 211 yards per game, 16th in the league. Patrick Mahomes popped up on the Chiefs' injury report this week for a right wrist issue, but was a full participant all week. The QB has completed 58.8% of his passes thus far for 445 yards, 2 TDs and an interception. He’s been working with a banged-up receiving corps, and long-time target Travis Kelce is starting to show his age. Hollywood Brown has been targeted by Mahomes 22 times and caught 15 passes for 129 yards. The run game is averaging 109.5 yards per game, led by Mahomes, who has 123 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. The line has allowed four sacks.
The Chiefs’ defense is giving up 305 total yards and 23.5 points per game. Against the rush, they’ve allowed 106 yards per game, and opponents are averaging 3.6 yards per carry against them. They’ve allowed 199 passing yards per game, disrupting the opposition with five sacks, though they have yet to record an interception. Safety Chamarri Conner leads the team with 19 tackles, 10 of them solo. Linebacker Drue Tranquill picked up two sacks to push the opposition back 13 combined yards.
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Injury report
- DE Michael Danna (quad) out
- CB Kristian Fulton (ankle) out
- WR Jalen Royals (knee) questionable
- WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder) questionable
Giants defense needs tightening
After dropping two games against division foes on the road to open the season, the Giants finally get their home opener. After scoring a go-ahead touchdown with 25 seconds remaining, Dallas marched the field and tied the game with a field goal as time expired to force overtime, where New York would ultimately fall. The teams scored a combined 41 points in the fourth quarter.
New York’s offense went for 506 total yards last week, and on the year, they average 368.5 total yards and 21.5 points per game. Their 289.5 passing yards per game average leads the league. Russell Wilson had a monster game in the loss to Dallas, throwing for 450 yards and his first 3 TDs of the year. He’s thrown for 618 yards and rushed for a team-high 67 yards. Second-year receiver Malik Nabers has 14 catches and 2 TDs and leads the league with 238 receiving yards. Wan’Dale Robinson also has 14 catches for 197 yards and a TD. The run game is 29th in the NFL, averaging 79 yards per game. Rookie RB Cam Skattebo has 13 carries for 42 yards and a touchdown.
Defensively, they’ve allowed 30.5 points per game and the 455 total yards per game allowed is the worst mark in the game. They have the worst rushing defense in the land, allowing 177.5 yards per game while teams average 5.9 yards per carry against them. Against the pass, they are 29th, allowing 277.5 yards per game. They’ve applied enough pressure to get the opposing QB for six sacks, and they’ve picked off one pass. Linebacker Bobby Okereke is tied for second in the league with a team-high 26 tackles. Linebacker Brian Burns has been a menace in the backfield, recording three sacks and four tackles for loss.
Injury report
- LB Demetrius Flanningan-Fowles (calf) doubtful
- DE Chauncey Golston (ankle) questionable
- LB Darius Muasau (concussion/eye) out
- WR Gunner Olszewski (back) questionable
- DT Rakeem Nunes-Roches (foot) doubtful
- OT Andrew Thomas (foot) questionable
Chiefs vs. Giants Picks
Spread Pick for Chiefs vs. Giants
- Giants +5.5 (5 units)
These two sides last crossed paths in 2021, a game the Chiefs won by three points at home as -10.5 favorites. It wasn’t all bad for both sides, minus the lack of wins. The Chiefs' defense has been decent, and the Giants' offense went off last week. Both sides do need to find the other side of the coin, though, and in that regard, I like New York to be able to pull things together enough in their home opener. The Chiefs' offense is still very much banged up at the receiver position and Mahomes himself seems to be dealing with a little bit of something in his throwing wrist. The Giants may not need their A-game on defense here, surprisingly, but a B-game performance could go a long way. Wilson really got the offense rolling last week, and I expect that to carry over here. They do still need to establish their run a bit more, but they’ve done well to move the ball forward and get in position to score. It might take a little bit more to pull out victory, but I know for sure they keep this close. New York is 3-1 ATS in their last four games against Kansas City.
Take the Giants getting the points at home.
Over/Under Pick for Chiefs vs. Giants
- Over 44.5 (4 units)
This is an interesting matchup given what both teams have done thus far. There is no doubt that both teams are going to push their offenses to try and get on the scoreboard in an effort to ensure their first victory. The Giants’ offense did well in that role last week until the defense collapsed in the end. They won’t need to put 37 points on the board here, but I do believe they’ll keep things rolling and get enough points to contribute to the effort. The Chiefs’ offense is the bigger concern. They’ve struggled mightily and Mahomes needs help. Kelce is due to step up and catch a couple of big passes. If they can utilize other weapons until they need the big tight end in goal-line situations, then they can get back on track here. New York allowed 40 points last week, so Kansas City should be able to score a few times here.
Take the over.
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