Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 1 2026

You know what bothers me about the Jets? They’re 2-5, they score fewer than 20 points a game, and somehow they’re favored against a Raiders team that’s been scoring 26.

I get it. Las Vegas has lost four straight. The Raiders haven’t exactly been playing winning football lately. But if you’re asking me which offense I trust to put together three or four touchdown drives, I’m going with the visitors.

The Raiders head to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Sunday, November 1, with kickoff at 1 PM ET on FOX. New York is favored by 1.5 points, and the total is 45.5. That’s a small number on the side, so I’m not going to pretend there’s some enormous difference between these teams. I just think the wrong one is favored. The NFL season is just starting to warm up, make sure you are ready for all the games with our free NFL picks.

Las Vegas Raiders Need to Finish What They Start

Las Vegas is 3-4 and has dropped four consecutive games. The Raiders lost 35-21 in their last outing after falling 33-30 the week before. That tells you quite a bit. They’re scoring enough to compete, but the defense isn’t holding up its end of the bargain. A team can’t keep allowing 30-plus points and expect to climb back above .500.

The Raiders average 26.1 points and 343.7 yards per game. That’s sixth in the NFL in scoring. They’re also plus-four in turnover differential, which I like against a Jets defense that has managed only one interception all season. Las Vegas has recorded 16 sacks, so the pass rush isn’t terrible, but it hasn’t been strong enough to cover up every mistake behind it. Against New York, I don’t think the Raiders need to play perfect defense. Just make the Jets work for their points.

Kirk Cousins has thrown for 1,877 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. That’s pretty good production through seven games. Tre Tucker has 474 receiving yards and four touchdowns, while Ashton Jeanty has rushed for 328 yards. Jeanty is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry, so the running game still needs work. Patrick Johnson and Carter Runyon are out, while Jack Bech and Jackson Powers-Johnson are questionable. Losing Powers-Johnson would hurt the offensive line, and that’s worth checking before kickoff.

New York Jets Have to Find More Offense

The Jets are 2-5, and their offense hasn’t done much to make me believe a turnaround is coming. They’ve had some competitive games, but competitive doesn’t pay the bills. At some point, you have to finish drives and put touchdowns on the board.

New York averages 19.6 points and 303 yards per game. That’s 27th in scoring and 23rd in total offense. The defense has been better at getting pressure, recording 19 sacks, but it has only one interception. One. Through seven games. That’s an awful number when you’re trying to steal possessions from a quarterback who’s thrown 16 touchdowns. The Jets need to make Cousins uncomfortable, because letting him sit back and pick his spots won’t work.

Geno Smith has thrown for 1,623 yards with ten touchdowns and only two interceptions. That’s respectable. Braelon Allen has rushed for 418 yards at 4.6 per carry, and Garrett Wilson has 444 receiving yards with three touchdowns. So there are players capable of moving the football. But Max Mitchell, T’Vondre Sweat and Joseph Ossai are out, while Breece Hall is questionable with a quad injury. Losing Sweat hurts the defensive front, and Hall’s availability matters to the offense.

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets Picks and Prediction

Las Vegas Raiders +1.5

I’m taking the Raiders plus 1.5. Look, they’ve lost four straight, and that’s the obvious argument against them. Their defense has been giving up too many points. But Cousins has 16 touchdown passes, Las Vegas is sixth in scoring, and the Jets haven’t been doing enough offensively to make me trust them as favorites. New York’s pass rush could cause problems, especially if Powers-Johnson can’t play. Still, I think the Raiders have more ways to score. Give me Las Vegas to win outright.

Over 45.5 Points

I’ll take Over 45.5. The Raiders have been involved in some high-scoring games lately, and their defense has struggled to keep opponents out of the end zone. New York hasn’t been scoring much, but the Jets should have opportunities against this Las Vegas defense. The risk is the Jets turning the game into a slow, ugly contest and holding the ball with their running game. That’s possible. But I can see something like Raiders 27-23, and that gets us Over.

Final Picks: Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 and Over 45.5 Points