Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction and Picks - Sunday, October 12, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Chargers will try to end their losing skid on Sunday as they visit Miami in Week 6 of the NFL season. For great side and total picks on this game, read on for our Chargers vs. Dolphins prediction and picks. Kick-off is scheduled for 1pm ET at Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Dolphins.
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Chargers suffer double blow
The Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) made a flying start to the 2025 season, including an upset win in Week 1 over the Chiefs. But things have slowed since then: LA went down to the Giants on the road and last time out was beaten comfortably 27-10 by the Commanders. Justin Herbert suffered his worst start of the season and failed to break 200 passing yards for the first time as Washington held him to 166 yards. The quarterback threw a touchdown and an interception, his fourth in the last three games.
LA's efforts were not helped by a string of penalty calls against the team, receiving 10 flags for a total of 85 yards. The Chargers averaged 58.7 penalty yards against in 2025, ranking 17th in the NFL. The Chargers' offensive line is also failing, part of the reason for Herbert's recent slump. The quarterback was sacked five times by the Commanders and 11 times in the last three games for a total of 71 yards. Only six quarterbacks have lost more yards to sacks this year in the league than Herbert, with 91.
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Injuries to linemen Joe Alt and Mekhi Becton have weakened the O-line, though Becton may be back for the Chargers after fully participating in Thursday's practice. Alt (ankle) will remain on the sideline for Sunday's game and he could be joined by Trey Pipkins (leg), reducing even further the team's depth at the line of scrimmage. Omarion Hampton (ankle) is on the IR, leaving the Chargers down to their third-string running back with Najee Harris (Achilles) out for the season.
Dolphins turning the corner?
The Miami Dolphins (1-4) have shown signs in the past couple of weeks that their worst stretch may be behind them. In Week 5, Miami finally got off the mark with a strong 27-21 win over the Jets, and it should have finished off the Panthers last week before a late rally from 17 points down for the home team sealed a 27-24 Dolphins loss.
Despite the loss, the Dolphins will have liked what they saw from Tua Tagovailoa. The quarterback threw a season-high 27 completions for a success rate of 75%, picking up three touchdowns - another high mark for 2025 - and zero interceptions. Tagovailoa now has five TDs without a single INT in his last two outings, while he has also done better in keeping out of harm's way, suffering only three sacks in the last three games. His resurgence is vital for one of the most pass-heavy offenses in pro football: Miami throws the ball on 63.5% of its plays, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
On the injury front, Tagovailoa was cleared for full participation in Thursday's practice after struggling with hip and left thumb issues and shouldn't have any problem when Sunday comes. LB Tyrel Dodson (concussion) and DB Elijah Campbell (quadricep) were Miami's only non-participants on Thursday. WR Tyreek Hill (knee) is out for the season.
Spread Pick for Chargers vs. Dolphins
- Dolphins +4.5 (five units)
The Dolphins still haven't shown much in 2025, but with Tagovailoa's recent progress and LA's injury troubles, I am backing them to take advantage of a slumping Chargers team and cover as underdogs, possibly even pushing on to take the win outright. The Dolphins quarterback got the best of Herbert in their last meeting, a 36-34 win for the Dolphins in LA back in 2023. Herbert could face trouble from this Miami pass rush, which sacked Cam Newton three times in Week 5, especially with the Chargers' personnel issues in the O-line. Miami is 2-1 ATS in its last three games, while the Chargers have gone 0-3 ATS in the same period.
Take the Dolphins.
Over/Under Pick for Chargers vs. Dolphins
- Under 43.5 (five units)
These two offenses are scuffling at the moment, and the most likely scenario is a low-scoring game on Sunday, which hits the under. The Chargers rank 19th in the NFL with an average of 19.2 points scored per gam,e while they have done a terrible job taking their chances in the red zone, scoring a touchdown in just 38.5% of their RZ visits - a proportion which tops only the Raiders and Giants. On the other side of the ball, LA boasts the sixth-toughest defense in pro football and allows 19.6 points and less than 300 yards per game. The Dolphins' mark of 21.4 ppg ranks 21st in the NFL. The Chargers are 1-4 on the over this season and have hit the under in all of their last four games. Their offensive potency will be diminished further by the absence of Hampton.
Take the under.
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