Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Picks - December 29, 2025
The Los Angeles Rams (11-4) visit the Atlanta Falcons (6-9) for the final Monday Night Football game of the 2025 regular season. This is a game of high stakes for Los Angeles, who are still mathematically alive for the NFC West title but need a win to keep pace with Seattle. Atlanta, though eliminated from playoff contention, enters with momentum after winning two straight and will look to play the role of spoiler in front of their home crowd at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
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Los Angeles Rams: Elite Offense in a "Must-Win" Spot
The Rams boast one of the NFL's most dangerous offenses, ranking 2nd in points scored (30.5 PPG) and 3rd in passing yards. Matthew Stafford is putting up MVP-caliber numbers with 4,179 yards and a league-leading 40 touchdowns. His connection with Puka Nacua (1,592 yards, 2nd in NFL) has been unstoppable, especially with the likely absence of Davante Adams, who is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury.
The main concern for Sean McVay’s squad is a defense that has shown cracks lately, allowing 38 points in a crushing overtime loss to Seattle last week. Additionally, the offensive line will be missing Kevin Dotson (Out), and tackle Alaric Jackson is a game-time decision (Questionable). For the Rams to cover a large road spread, their young pass rush led by Jared Verse (6.5 sacks) must harass Atlanta's veteran quarterback.
Atlanta Falcons: Finishing Strong with Bijan Robinson
Despite a disappointing 6-9 record, the Falcons have been a difficult out at home and in primetime. Bijan Robinson remains the engine of this team, ranking 5th in the NFL with 1,250 rushing yards. He will likely be the focal point again as Atlanta looks to exploit a Rams run defense that allowed 171 yards on the ground last week.
With rookie Michael Penix Jr. on IR, veteran Kirk Cousins has steadied the ship, leading recent wins over Arizona and Tampa Bay. The status of star receiver Drake London (Questionable, Knee) is the biggest storyline for Atlanta; while he is officially questionable, head coach Raheem Morris expressed optimism that he would play. Defensively, the Falcons rank 10th against the pass, which sets up a fascinating strength-on-strength battle against the Rams' high-flying aerial attack.
Expert Picks and Predictions
Falcons vs Rams ATS Pick
- Atlanta Falcons +7.5 (-115)
I am taking the points with the Falcons at home. While the Rams are the better team and have everything to play for, 7.5 points is a lot to give a desperate home team in a dome environment. The Falcons have covered the spread in five of their last six meetings against the Rams and have played their best football in primetime this year. With the Rams missing Davante Adams and dealing with offensive line injuries, Atlanta’s defense should be able to do enough to keep this within a touchdown.
Rams vs Falcons O/U Pick
- Over 49.5 (-120)
I am hammering the Over in this matchup. Both teams feature top-tier playmakers and are playing indoors on a fast track. The Rams have seen the Over hit in four of their last five games, while Atlanta’s offense has found its rhythm under Cousins recently. Los Angeles is averaging over 30 points a game, but their defense is giving up over 24 points per game over the last month. Expect a high-scoring affair similar to a 31-27 or 30-24 finish.
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