Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Picks - October 26, 2025
Use Code SSWC National Football League action on Sunday afternoon, and we have a Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Dolphins come in at 1-6 on the year, and they are off a 31-6 road loss to Cleveland. The Falcons have gone 3-3 on the year, and they come in off a 20-10 loss at San Francisco. These teams last met in 2021, and Atlanta won that game 31-28. Read on to see our Dolphins vs Falcons prediction.
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A Bad Start For The Fish
Miami enters Week 8 with one of the league’s least efficient offenses, averaging just 279.0 total yards per game (27th) and 20.0 points per game (25th). The passing attack has been inconsistent, ranking 27th at 186.6 yards per game, while the ground game has been even less productive at 92.4 yards per game (29th). Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,313 yards with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and his turnover issues have been costly — Miami’s 12 giveaways are tied for 31st in the NFL. The lone bright spot has been De’Von Achane, who leads the team with 472 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging nearly 5 yards per carry despite limited support from the offensive line.
The passing game has leaned heavily on Jaylen Waddle, who leads the team with 405 receiving yards, but the lack of a consistent secondary option has made Miami easier to defend. Tight end production has been minimal, and explosive plays have been scarce — the Dolphins rank near the bottom of the league in completions of 20+ yards. Their offensive line struggles have compounded the problem, limiting both the run game and Tagovailoa’s ability to push the ball downfield. To stay competitive against Atlanta, Miami will need to lean on Achane early, control tempo, and avoid the turnovers that have repeatedly flipped momentum.
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Defensively, Miami has been just as shaky, ranking 26th in total defense at 363.1 yards allowed per game. The run defense has been the biggest liability, giving up 159.3 yards per game (32nd), and opponents have scored 29.3 points per game against them, ranking 29th overall. The pass defense has been a relative strength, sitting 11th at 203.9 yards allowed, with Minkah Fitzpatrick recording the team’s lone interception. Bradley Chubb leads the pass rush with 4 sacks, but Miami has generated little consistent pressure. With only one takeaway all season (30th in the NFL), the Dolphins have struggled to flip field position or create momentum-changing plays. Against a Falcons team built around Bijan Robinson’s rushing attack, Miami’s inability to stop the run looms as the defining challenge.
Falcons Look To Get The Offense Back On Track
Atlanta enters Week 8 with one of the league’s most balanced statistical profiles, ranking 7th in total offense (364.3 yards per game) and 2nd in total defense (265.2 yards allowed). Despite those strong yardage numbers, the Falcons have struggled to finish drives, averaging just 18.3 points per game (28th). Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has been steady, throwing for 1,409 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, completing 65% of his passes. His chemistry with Drake London has been a highlight, as London leads the team with 469 receiving yards and has become a reliable target in contested situations. Free-agent addition Darnell Mooney has added speed on the perimeter, while Kyle Pitts Sr. remains a matchup problem at tight end when healthy.
The ground game has been the engine of Atlanta’s offense, ranking 4th in the NFL at 136.3 rushing yards per game. Bijan Robinson has been the centerpiece, racking up 524 rushing yards and averaging 4.7 yards per carry. His versatility as both a runner and receiver forces defenses to account for him on every snap, while Tyler Allgeier has been effective in short-yardage and red-zone situations, leading the team with 3 touchdowns. The offensive line has been inconsistent in pass protection but has opened lanes for the run game, allowing Atlanta to control tempo when playing with a lead. Against Miami’s 32nd-ranked run defense, Robinson and Allgeier are positioned for a heavy workload that could tilt the game script in Atlanta’s favor.
Defensively, the Falcons have been among the league’s best, ranking 1st in passing yards allowed (141.2 per game) and 8th in points allowed (20.0 per game). The secondary, anchored by A.J. Terrell Jr. and safety Jessie Bates III, has limited explosive plays, while rookie safety Xavier Watts has already recorded 2 interceptions. The pass rush has been led by Zach Harrison with 3.5 sacks, though Atlanta has relied more on coverage and disciplined zone schemes than sheer pressure. The run defense has been more vulnerable, ranking 19th at 124.0 yards allowed per game, but it has tightened in the red zone. Against Miami, the Falcons’ defensive plan will likely focus on collapsing the pocket on Tagovailoa and forcing him into mistakes, while trusting their secondary to contain Jaylen Waddle. If they execute, Atlanta has the statistical edge to control both pace and field position.
Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons Pick
Dolphins vs Falcons Spread Pick
- Atlanta -7.5 (5 Units)
Falcons -7.5 looks like a strong position given the statistical gap between these two teams. Atlanta ranks 7th in total offense (364.3 YPG) and 2nd in total defense (265.2 YPG allowed), while Miami sits near the bottom in both categories, averaging just 279.0 yards per game (27th) and surrendering 363.1 yards per game (26th). The biggest mismatch comes on the ground: Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier headline a rushing attack that ranks 4th in the league (136.3 YPG), while Miami’s run defense is dead last, giving up 159.3 yards per game. That sets up perfectly for Atlanta to control tempo, dominate time of possession, and wear down a Dolphins defense that has struggled to get off the field.
On the other side, Miami’s offense has been turnover-prone, with 12 giveaways already (31st in the NFL), while Atlanta’s defense has forced 6 takeaways and ranks 1st in passing yards allowed (141.2 YPG). Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 9 interceptions, and against a secondary anchored by A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates III, mistakes could pile up quickly. With the Falcons’ defense holding opponents to just 20.0 points per game (8th), and Miami averaging only 20.0 points per game themselves, the margin for error is slim. If Atlanta establishes the run early and forces Miami into catch-up mode, the Falcons have the balance and defensive edge to not only win but cover the 7.5-point spread with room to spare.
Dolphins vs Falcons Over/Under Pick
- Under 45 (5 Units)
The Under 45 has strong appeal here given how both teams’ profiles line up. Atlanta ranks 28th in scoring at just 18.3 points per game despite being top 10 in total yardage, a sign of red-zone inefficiency and stalled drives. Miami, meanwhile, averages only 20.0 points per game and has turned the ball over 12 times, often killing momentum before it builds. Defensively, the Falcons are elite, allowing just 20.0 points per game and ranking 1st in passing yards allowed, while Miami’s offense has struggled to generate explosive plays without consistent balance. With Atlanta likely leaning on Bijan Robinson to control tempo and Miami’s defense vulnerable but bendable in the red zone, this matchup sets up for a slower, possession-heavy game that keeps the total under the 45-point mark.
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