Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Picks and Prediction - Thursday, September 18, 2025
The AFC East gets the Thursday night treatment and we’re rolling out our Dolphins vs. Bills predictions and picks. Miami (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) is on the verge of an early collapse after losing 33-27 at home against New England when they were -2.5 favorites on Sunday. Things have gone as expected for Buffalo (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS), who cruised by the Jets on Sunday, 30-10, as -6 favorites on the road. These two will kick things off from Highmark Stadium at 8:15 EST and if you want more NFL winners, check out our award-winning NFL Predictions.
Dolphins dive to new depths
The hot seat is on fire right now for head coach Mike McDaniel following the team’s latest loss. The Dolphins had a 27-23 lead in the fourth quarter following a punt return for a touchdown but on the ensuing kickoff, they allowed the Patriots to return it to the house, taking the wind out of their sails. They only made it to the red zone twice, turned the ball over once and committed 10 penalties as they fell to 0-2.
The Miami offense has been a mess, averaging 284.5 total yards per game, 25th in the NFL. They have leaned heavily on the pass, gaining 215 yards per game, compared to the 69.5 rushing yards per game they’ve averaged, the fourth worst mark in the NFL. Through two games, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 429 yards with 3 TDs and 3 interceptions. Tyreek Hill has been targeted 13 times, catching ten of those for 149 yards. De’Von Achane has found the end zone twice on his 11 catches and he leads Miami with 85 rushing yards and one rushing TD. The team has 28 first downs, the third fewest in the league, and they’ve gone 9-for-20 on third downs.
The defense hasn’t done the team any favors either, allowing 375.5 total yards and 33 points per game. Opponents have had success rushing the ball against the Dolphins, averaging 139 yards per game. They are one of twelve teams that did not intercept a pass in the first two weeks, and their four sacks were tied for 16th most. Jordyn Brooks has been the most active defender for the team, with 22 tackles, a sack and two tackles for loss. Bradley Chubb is responsible for half of the team's sacks.
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Injury report (with Monday’s practice participation status)
- CB Storm Duck (ankle) DNP
- S Ifeatu Melifonwu (calf) DNP
- CB Ethan Bonner (hamstring) limited
- C Aaron Brewer (hip) limited
- DT Benito Jones (oblique) limited
- LB Chop Robinson (knee) limited
- TE Darren Waller (hip) limited
- WR Malik Washington (thumb) limited
- RB Jaylen Wright (knee) limited
Bills look for full conference control
Following a classic, one-point win over Baltimore in week one, the Bills were in full command in their win over the Jets this past weekend. They staked themselves a 20-3 halftime lead behind a rushing attack that rolled for 224 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. The defense kept New York to just 154 yards total, forced three fumbles and recorded four sacks in the win.
Buffalo’s offense has come out of the gate to average 450 total yards in their first two games, the best mark in the NFL. Their 166 rushing yards per game are the second most in the league and their 284 passing yards average is tied for second. Josh Allen wasn’t even necessary last week, yet he still suffered a bloody nose and was forced out for two plays on Sunday. The Bills' field general has 542 passing yards and two TDs, while also rushing for 89 yards and 2 TDs. James Cook is fourth in the league with 176 rushing yards and tied for first with three TDs. Only the Cowboys have equaled the 54 first downs that the Bills have picked up, but they’ve also gone 41.4% on third downs, if there was an early weakness to point to.
On defense, Buffalo allowed 293 yards, eighth in the NFL, and 25 points per game. Despite having no interceptions, they have the best passing defense in the land, giving up just 124 yards per game. Their defensive line pressure has produced six sacks, tied for the seventh most in the game. Christian Benford has a team-high 11 tackles. Five different players have one sack, including Joey Bosa, who has also forced three fumbles.
Injury report (with Monday’s practice participation status)
- LB Matt Milano (pectoral) DNP
- DT Ed Oliver (ankle) DNP
- CB Taron Johnson (quadricep) limited
- CB Cam Lewis (shoulder) limited
- LB Shaq Thompson (hamstring/hand) limited
- DB Jordan Hancock (shoulder) full
Dolphins vs. Bills Picks
Spread Pick for Dolphins vs. Bills
- Buffalo -11.5 (4 units)
In their two meetings last season, the Bills went 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, with an average winning margin of 12 points per game. The Dolphins offense did put up 27 points last week, but that was against a weak Patriots defense which was missing their best player. You have to expect that they are playing with some desperation at this point and that will not fare well for them coming into the belly of the beast in Buffalo, where they’ve lost nine straight games. They are completely out of sync on the offensive end, and Tua looks frantic in the pocket and out. Now they have to face off with the league’s best passing defense. The Bills are a bit banged up in the defensive backfield, but should have plenty of hands on deck to take care of business. The Bills’ front will be in the backfield all night as well, putting more pressure and panic on Tua and company. Offensively, if the Pats can score 33 against Miami’s defense, then Josh Allen should have no issues leading his group towards paydirt. Buffalo is 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last ten games versus Miami.
Take the Bills, at home, in prime time, giving the points.
Over/Under Pick for Dolphins vs. Bills
- Under 49.5 (5 units)
In the two regular-season meetings between these teams last season, they averaged a combined 49 points per game, splitting against the over, 1-1. The Dolphins put 27 points on the board last weekend, but noted above, against a low-end defense. Their eight-point effort against Indianapolis in their season opener was a mess and might, unfortunately, be a more accurate depiction of their offense. Miami’s defense has fared well against the rush this season, so it’ll probably do a better job than Buffalo’s first two opponents at limiting their ground game. However, they’ll have issues against Allen in the passing attack for sure; it's just a matter of how much? In this situation, the Dolphins know this Bills offense well enough to make things a little tougher to score. Buffalo’s defense should also dominate the day. The total has alternated between under and over in the last nine games between these two and the last meeting went over.
Take the under.
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