Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 15 2026

Miami heads to Indianapolis on Sunday for a 1 PM ET game at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts are favored by 3.5 points, and the total is 37.5. Lucas Oil Stadium has a retractable roof, which is expected to be closed, so weather shouldn’t be an issue. Neither team has been playing particularly good football. Miami just scored nine points against Detroit, while Indianapolis lost another close game to Dallas. Somebody has to win this thing. I’m taking the Colts, mostly because Miami’s offense has been so difficult to watch. Get into the NFL action with our free NFL picks.

Miami Can’t Keep Scoring Nine Points

Miami is 1-7 after losing 19-9 to Detroit on Sunday. That’s another frustrating afternoon for a team that hasn’t been able to get much going offensively. The Dolphins have been losing games in different ways, but the offense has been a problem almost every week. They’re not generating enough explosive plays, and the passing game hasn’t been consistent.

The Dolphins are averaging only 15.8 points per game while allowing 25. That’s a pretty ugly difference. Miami has been better defensively than the record suggests, allowing 326.1 yards per game, but the offense keeps putting the defense in bad situations. Indianapolis has been giving up plenty of points itself, so Miami should have opportunities. The problem is whether the Dolphins can actually take advantage of them.

Malik Willis has been listed on injured reserve, leaving Miami with uncertainty at quarterback. Zach Sieler is also on injured reserve, which affects the defensive front. The Dolphins need better protection and more dependable quarterback play. They can’t afford another afternoon where every first down feels like a major accomplishment. Against Indianapolis, getting the running game established would help take some pressure off the passing attack.

Indianapolis Needs to Finish a Game

Indianapolis is 2-7 after losing 27-23 to Dallas on Sunday. The Colts have been competitive in some games, but they’ve had trouble finishing. That’s what makes them frustrating. Indianapolis isn’t getting embarrassed every week. It’s losing games that could swing the other way with one or two better plays.

The Colts are averaging 20.4 points per game and allowing 27.3. The defense has been a problem, giving up 361.8 yards a night. That’s a lot of opportunities for opposing offenses. Miami hasn’t been taking advantage of those opportunities lately, which is why I like Indianapolis here. The Colts don’t need to play perfect defense. They need to keep Miami from finding a rhythm and make the Dolphins drive the length of the field.

Indianapolis has some secondary concerns, including injuries involving Justin Walley and A.J. Haulcy. Those are worth monitoring because the Colts can’t afford to give Miami easy completions. The offense also needs to protect the football. Against a struggling team, turnovers are one of the easiest ways to turn a winnable game into another loss.

Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3.5

I’m taking Indianapolis and laying the 3.5 points. I don’t love backing a 2-7 team, especially one that’s allowing more than 27 points a game. But Miami has been scoring only 15.8, and the Dolphins just managed nine against Detroit. Indianapolis should be able to move the ball against Miami, and I think the Colts have enough offense to create some separation. The biggest concern is the Indianapolis defense making Miami look better than it has all season. That’s possible. But I’ll take the home team.

Total Pick: Under 37.5

I’m taking the under 37.5, although that number doesn’t leave much room. Miami has been one of the worst offensive teams in football, and the Dolphins haven’t shown enough consistency to make me expect a sudden breakout. Indianapolis can score, but the Colts haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. The danger is Miami’s defense giving up a couple of easy touchdowns and forcing the Dolphins to throw more. Still, I think this stays fairly low-scoring. Something around 23-13 Indianapolis would get both picks home.

Final Picks: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 | Under 37.5

Disclaimer: Completed November 11, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and starting quarterback availability should be confirmed before kickoff.