Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts Picks and Predictions, Sunday September 7, 2025
The 2025 NFL season has now officially kicked off, and with optimism for all 32 teams around the league, we'll see an interesting Week One clash with our Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts prediction.
The Miami Dolphins took a major step back in 2024 after some incredible offensive years, but with the team hopeful over Tua Tagovailoa's health, they're in with a great shot at a Wild Card spot in the AFC in 2025.
On Sunday they start their season up against the Indianapolis Colts, a team that has major question marks at the most important position in the sport, but with a very winnable AFC South ahead of them, they could be a true dark horse in the AFC. Read on to see our Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts prediction.
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Can the Dolphins make a statement early in Week One?
Last season, the Miami Dolphins ended the year 8-9 as they missed the postseason, with starting QB Tua Tagovailoa appearing in just 11 games, a major reason they took a step back from a fantastic 2023 campaign. This off-season, the Dolphins added Darren Waller and some significant upgrades on the offensive line, but their biggest changes came on the defensive side, as they traded Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith for veteran safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, a deal that could have major consequences for the team in 2025.
Last year, Miami ranked 18th in total yards per game and 22nd in points, and with Tyreek Hill, Tagovailoa and others dealing with injuries, if those persist, there will be major question marks over how far they can go in 2025. When healthy, however, Tua remains strong, tossing 19 Touchdowns with a 73% completion rate, showing that if they can establish the run game early, this isn't a team that can be taken lightly around the league.
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Can the Colts compete for a wide open AFC South?
The Indianapolis Colts have been showing signs of taking huge steps forward in recent years, but with question marks at QB, the team is once again doubted heading into a very winnable AFC South this season. After drafting Anthony Richardson a season ago, the Colts have now turned to free agent signee Daniel Jones as their starting quarterback this season, and with the team being very quiet beyond that in free agency and on the trade market, there's not much hope for them to improve upon their 8-9 record from 2024.
The one big addition that the Colts did make came through the draft, as they used the No. 15 pick on talented tight end Tyler Warren, who is quickly expected to become one of, if not their biggest threats in the passing game this season. This was a team that averaged just 22 points a game despite ranking top-10 in yards per game, and with a defense that gives up 25 a night that wasn't improved much over the off-season, 2025 could be a rough season in Indianapolis.
Dolphins vs. Colts Pick
Spread pick for Dolphins vs. Colts
- Miami -1 (4 units)
These two teams have met just once since the end of 2021, with the Colts coming away 16-10 winners a year ago, but with the Dolphins healthy heading into this one, this should be a different story after Indianapolis failed to make significant improvements this offseason.
With Tagovailoa, Hill and Waddle all healthy, the Dolphins are a completely different team, and with the Dolphins having genuine confidence that they can make a playoff run in 2025, they should start the season off with an impressive, statement-making win on the road.
Over/Under Pick for Dolphins vs. Colts
- Over 46.5 (5 units)
One thing we know about these teams from 2024 is that they love to play high-scoring matchups, with both ranking in the top-20 in the NFL in yards per game, and with both offenses' healthy matching up against struggling defenses, this should be a high-scoring affair.
For the Dolphins, the over sits at 6-4 in their last 10 overall games, with 30 or more points allowed in three of their past five played away from home, and for the Colts, the over comes in at 7-3 in their past 10, with an average of exactly 50 total points per game during that stretch.
Keep it simple, take the over.
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