Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 13 2026

The Miami Dolphins travel to Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas to face the Raiders on Sunday, September 13, with kickoff scheduled for 4:25 PM ET on FOX. This matchup features new starting quarterbacks on both sides. Miami begins the Jeff Hafley era with Malik Willis, while Las Vegas has officially named veteran Kirk Cousins its Week 1 starter. The current market has Las Vegas favored by 3.5 points, with the total sitting around 39.5 to 40.5 depending on the sportsbook. With the NFL season just kicking off it is a great time to find the best free NFL picks.

Malik Willis Gets His Opportunity in Miami

The Dolphins made a major organizational change during the offseason, releasing Tua Tagovailoa and signing Malik Willis to a three-year contract. Miami's own training-camp preview identified Willis as the quarterback in line to start the opener in Las Vegas, making this a genuine opportunity for the former Green Bay backup to establish himself as an NFL starter.

Willis was excellent in limited work for Green Bay last season. He completed 30 of 35 passes for 422 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, producing a 145.5 passer rating. He also rushed 22 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Across his two seasons with Green Bay, Willis threw six touchdowns without an interception while demonstrating substantial efficiency when called upon.

His mobility could become a central component of Miami's offense. De'Von Achane remains in the backfield after receiving an extension through 2030, giving Miami the potential to create considerable stress horizontally with two explosive runners operating from the same backfield. The receiving corps looks different after Miami traded Jaylen Waddle and released Tyreek Hill, so Willis will be leading an offense undergoing a genuine transition.

Miami protected Willis during much of the preseason, but his recorded preseason work included completing four of five passes for 43 yards while adding nine rushing yards. Those numbers don't tell us much by themselves, but the Dolphins clearly entered camp treating him as more than a temporary bridge quarterback.

Kirk Cousins Wins the Raiders Quarterback Competition

Las Vegas had one of the NFL's most interesting quarterback competitions, with Kirk Cousins battling Aidan O'Connell and No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza. Head coach Klint Kubiak officially ended the competition on September 2 by naming Cousins the Week 1 starter.

Cousins earned the job with a strong offseason and efficient preseason. He completed 13 of 17 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown across his two preseason appearances, good for a 76.5% completion rate. He also brings 167 career starts, 44,700 passing yards and 298 career touchdown passes into his 15th NFL season.

The Raiders are not abandoning Mendoza as their future quarterback. General manager John Spytek has emphasized that the rookie's opportunity will come, but Cousins gives Las Vegas the veteran option to begin the year. That's a sensible approach for a team trying to improve immediately rather than treating 2026 solely as a developmental season.

Las Vegas also has Ashton Jeanty in the backfield and Brock Bowers at tight end, giving Cousins two significant offensive pieces. The Raiders scored only 241 points last season, however, so improvement needs to be demonstrated rather than assumed.

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Dolphins +3.5

Las Vegas is more likely to win than the raw records from last year suggest, but Miami +3.5 is attractive. Willis was extremely efficient when Green Bay needed him, and his running ability creates an additional problem for a Raiders defense preparing for a significantly different Miami offense. Cousins provides Las Vegas with stability, but laying more than a field goal with a team that scored the fewest points in the NFL last season is difficult. Miami's offense is undergoing major changes, yet Willis and Achane give the Dolphins enough explosiveness to keep this within one possession. Take Miami +3.5.

Pick: Under 40.5

The Under is the stronger portion of the handicap. Both teams have changed quarterbacks, Miami has substantially rebuilt its receiving corps, and Las Vegas scored only 241 points last season. Cousins should improve the Raiders' efficiency, but Kubiak has little reason to immediately ask his veteran quarterback to carry the offense if Las Vegas can establish Jeanty and play from ahead. Miami should similarly make Willis' mobility and Achane's running ability major parts of its plan. A 21-20 or 21-17 game fits this matchup. Take Under 40.5.

Final Picks: Miami Dolphins +3.5 and Under 40.5