Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Preview, Odds, Line Movement, Picks and Prediction, Monday, Dec. 15, 2025
We have a potentially strong AFC matchup in this Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction. It's going to be very frigid on Monday night in the Steel City as Miami (6-7, 7-6A ATS) hopes to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a road win. At 6-7, with no chance to win the AFC East, they would need to win out just to get to 10-7 and hope the 8-5 Colts and Texans fall apart. Pittsburgh (7-6, 6-7 ATS) is a game up on Baltimore in the AFC North after beating the Ravens 27-22 on the road as a 5.5-point underdog to take the lead in the division. This is just one game, but we have more big matchups this week in basketball, college bowls and free NFL picks on Stat Salt.
Quick Picks and Prediction on Dolphins vs. Steelers
If you're in a rush, have a quick guide to what you're looking for.
- Pittsburgh 21-Miami 20
- Miami +3
- Under 42.5
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds and Line Movement
Check out the opening odds and current odds along with line moves for the Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction below. You'll get the money line, spread and totals.
Opening Odds for Dolphins vs. Steelers
- Spread: Miami +3.5 (-115)/Pittsburgh -3.5 (-105)
- Total: o42.5 (-110)/u42.5 (-110)
- ML: Miami +160/Pittsburgh -190
(odds from FanDuel)
Steelers vs. Dolphins Line Movement
- Spread: Miami +3.5 (-115)/Pittsburgh -3.5 (-105) moved to Miami +3 (-105)/Pittsburgh -3 (-115)
- Total: o42.5 (-110)/u42.5 (-110)
- ML: Miami +160/Pittsburgh -190 moved to Miami +150/Pittsburgh -179
(no major changes)
Key Matchups for Steelers vs. Dolphins
The Fins are still in it
It's been a very disappointing 2025 for Miami. They fired GM Chris Grier in late October after they fell to another disappointing team, Baltimore, 28-6 on a Thursday night to fall to 2-7. Since the Baltimore loss, the Dolphins have won four straight games, including crushing Buffalo 30-13 and beating also-rans Washington (16-13), New Orleans (21-17), and the NY Jets (34-10) in their last game. The Dolphins' defense held the Jets to just 12 first downs and 207 yards. However, Miami was playing against third-string QB Brady Cook after Tyrod Taylor was injured earlier in the game. Tua Tagovailo completed 13 of 21 for 127 yards and a TD, while Jaylen Wright and De'Von Achane combined for 199 yards rushing and two TDs. Achane suffered an injury to his ribs and is listed as questionable for this game.
Tagovailoa is completing 66.9% of his passes for 2,407 yards with 18 TDs and 14 INTs this season. Achane is having a big season with 1,126 yards and seven TDs (5.8ypc). He also has 44 catches for 383 yards and four TDs. Jaylen Waddle leads all receivers with 57 catches for 812 yards and six TDs. Miami's passing game has been missing in action in most of the season, ranking 28th with 178.2. The fact that Tyreek Hill is out for the season with a knee injury after playing just four games and is reportedly considering retirement as his next step.
MVP Rodgers shows up against the Ravens
Aaron Rodgers has not had a season to remember. His offense was near the bottom of the league in most categories coming into their game at Baltimore. But Rodgers, still playing with a fractured left wrist, was able to complete 23 of 34 for 284 yards (most of the season by far) with a TD and no picks. He targeted DK Metcalf 12 times and he caught seven passes for 149 yards.
Pittsburgh wasn't able to run the ball against the Ravens, and that's been a concern all year. Jaylen Warren, who had a receiving TD against the Ravens, leads the team with 652 yards and four TDs. Rodgers is completing 65.4% of his passes for 2,370 yards with 20 TDs and six INTs. Metcalf leads a shaky receiving corps with 52 catches for 753 yards and five TDs. Backup running back Kenneth Gainwell adds 50 catches for 286 yards. OLB T.J. Watt leads the team with seven sacks and three forced fumbles, while LB Alonzo Highsmith adds 6.5 sacks and one forced fumble. Watt (lung) is likely to miss this game on Monday night after experiencing lung discomfort on Monday. He hasn't missed a game since the 2022 season.
Betting Trends for Dolphins vs. Steelers.
Miami is:
- 4-2 ATS last 6 games.
- 5-1 Under last 6 games.
Pittsburgh is:
- 4-1 Under last 5 at home.
- 4-1 Under last 5 vs. Miami.
Key Injuries and Analysis for Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami:
- RB De'Von Achane (ribs) is questionable.
- LB Tyrel Dodson (hamstring) is questionable. Has 55 tackles and four sacks.
Pittsburgh:
- OT Calvin Anderson was placed on the IR.
- DK Metcalf (stomach) is questionable. Top receiver.
- OG Andrus Peat (concussion) is questionable.
- LB Malik Harrison (concussion) is questionable.
- TE Darnell Washington (concussion) is questionable.
- OLB T.J. Watt (lung) is doubtful. Has seven sacks
Dolphins vs. Steelers ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
Check below for the winner, total and analysis of the Dolphins vs. Steelers pick.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Spread
- Miami +3 (4 units)
Total for Dolphins vs. Steelers
- Under 42.5 (4 units)
Dolphins vs. Steelers Final Score Prediction
- Pittsburgh 21-Miami 20
Miami may not be great in the cold weather, but the Steelers will miss T.J. Watt. The Steelers somehow beat Baltimore last week against a weak pass rush and got a few late calls that went their way (Isaiah Likely's TD pass called incomplete, Travis Jones' penalty on a Chris Boswell FG attempt that the NFL said was a mistake). Achane is a dynamic back and should play with some extra padding. Pittsburgh's run defense is ranked 21st in yards allowed per game and 18th in yards per attempt. Unlike Baltimore, the Fins have a legitimate pass rush and they'll make Rodgers move out of the pocket. Miami is 10th in sack percentage and 14th in sacks per game at 2.2. In terms of total, the cold weather and the fact that both passing offenses have been dreadful make that an easy pick. Miami has gone under four of their last five games. The Steelers have gone under in four of their last six games.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
