New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction and Picks for Sunday, October 5th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Week 5 continues on Sunday, and all roads lead to an AFC East showdown on Sunday Night Football between the New England Patriots (2-2) and the Buffalo Bills (4-0). We’ve got you covered with our Patriots vs. Bills prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NFL Betting Picks!
Patriots Hammer Panthers, Start 2-2
The New England Patriots have made the postseason just one time in the last five seasons, and they were promptly dismissed by the Bills in the 2021 wild-card round in a 47-17 rout. But with a new head coach in Mike Vrabel and a decent-looking young quarterback in Drake Maye, things are trending upward for the Pats. They’re priced at +135 to make the playoffs. New England is 2-2 out of the gate, collecting wins against Miami (33-27) and Carolina (42-13). They dropped games to Las Vegas (20-13) and Pittsburgh (21-14). The Patriots are 2-2 ATS and they’ve split their totals 2-2 to the over and under.
The aforementioned Drake Maye is leading the offense this season. He has thrown for 988 yards on a 74.0% completion rate, adding seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Veteran WR Stefon Diggs is the top target, hauling in 19 passes for 213 yards. RB Rhamondre Stevenson has spearheaded the rushing attack, gaining 125 yards on 31 totes (4.0 YPC).
- New England’s offense has been solid this season, ranking 10th in scoring (25.5 PPG), while putting up 336.3 yards per game (14th).
- On the defensive side, the Patriots are 10th this season, allowing 20.3 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 16th, conceding 319.0 yards per contest.
- Injury Report: New England has some bumps and bruises, but the only player who didn’t practice on Thursday was DT Milton Williams (ankle).
Bills Improve to 4-0
Meanwhile, it’s shaping up to be a “Super Bowl or Bust” season for Coach Sean McDermott and his Buffalo Bills. They haven’t been able to get over the hump and make a push to Super Bowl Sunday, but they may get there in 2025-26. The Bills sit atop the AFC at 4-0, collecting wins against the Ravens (41-40), Jets (30-10), Dolphins (31-21), and Saints (31-19), most recently. Buffalo is the frontrunner from a sports betting perspective, sitting at +400 to win the Super Bowl.
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QB Josh Allen is coming off of an MVP season, and he is putting up big-time numbers once again. The signal caller has 964 passing yards on a 70.2% completion rate, adding seven touchdowns and one pick. He has added 159 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. RB James Cook has taken a bulk of the rushing workload, registering 401 yards and two touchdowns on 75 carries (5.3 YPC). Out wide, WR Keon Coleman (203 yards, 1 TD) has emerged as the lead receiver.
- Offensively, the Bills are scoring 33.3 points per game (second), while averaging 404.0 yards per week (second).
- Defensively, they are 17th in the NFL this year, conceding 22.5 points per game. They’re allowing 290.0 yards per contest, which is ninth.
- Injury Report: Both LB Dorian Williams (knee) and CB Dorian Strong (neck) are confirmed out, but a good sign is that OLB Matt Milano (pectoral) and DT Ed Oliver (ankle) were able to practice on Thursday.
Patriots vs. Bills Pick
Spread Pick for Patriots vs. Bills
- New England Patriots +8.5 (-112) (5 units)
I’m always hesitant to lay more than a touchdown’s worth of points in a divisional game, and “Exhibit A” would be the banged-up 49ers (+8.5) beating the Rams outright on Thursday night. Now, I do think we’ll see the Bills improve to 5-0, so I’m not sounding the upset alarm, but I expect to see the Patriots keep this game inside the number.
The Bills have had some issues defensively. This is by no means a defensive juggernaut at this point of the season. Buffalo is allowing 22.5 points per game, so I anticipate Drake Maye & Co. moving the ball well enough to keep the game close. What stands out most to me is that Maye has a 74.0% completion rate, while the team is converting 41.7% of its third downs (10th). The coaching staff is putting the young quarterback in a good position to succeed, and he has been very efficient. I like for the Bills to score enough to keep the game close.
Over/Under Pick for Patriots vs. Bills
- Over 49.5 (-110) (5 units)
New England has been an “over machine” in recent history, going 8-3 to the over in its last 11 games. In this specific series, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Buffalo is 5-1 to the over in its last six games. As I mentioned above, I do think we’ll see the Pats put up some scoring, and as long as they hit the 24-point mark, we’ll be looking good on the over.
On the flip side, this Bills offense remains an absolute wagon. They’re a top-five pass-blocking team at Pro Football Focus, and if you give Josh Allen enough time, he’ll succeed with any group of receivers. This is exemplified by the fact that the Bills are scoring 33.3 points per game (second) and averaging 400+ yards per contest. Both offenses are primed for success – give me the over.
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