New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 27 2026

The New England Patriots visit the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida, on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. New England enters at 1-1 after an impressive 20-3 road victory over Pittsburgh, while Jacksonville is also 1-1 after losing 20-13 at Denver. Jacksonville is currently favored by 2.5 points with the total set at 44.5. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.

New England’s Defense Travels to Jacksonville

New England delivered one of Week 2’s stronger defensive performances by going into Pittsburgh and winning 20-3. The Patriots bounced back from their opening-week defeat and showed that they can control a game away from home when their defense consistently puts the offense in manageable situations.

That defensive performance becomes especially relevant against a Jacksonville team that managed only 13 points at Denver. New England does not need to transform this matchup into a high-scoring contest. The Patriots can remain patient, protect field position and attempt to force Jacksonville to sustain long drives.

The question is whether New England can generate enough offense to win another road game. Twenty points were plenty against Pittsburgh, but the Patriots should not assume Jacksonville will be held to three. New England needs to avoid becoming overly conservative and leaving the outcome dependent upon one late possession.

Jacksonville Returns Home Looking to Rebound

Jacksonville dropped to 1-1 with a 20-13 road loss to Denver. The Jaguars now return home as a small favorite, suggesting the market views these teams as relatively close on a neutral field. Home advantage accounts for much of the current 2.5-point spread.

Jacksonville’s offense needs a better performance after being held to 13 points. New England’s defensive showing in Pittsburgh makes that challenge more significant. If the Jaguars struggle on early downs and repeatedly face obvious passing situations, the Patriots should have an opportunity to keep this game close.

Jacksonville does have the advantage of returning home after a difficult trip to Denver. This is not a situation where the Jaguars need to dominate. A controlled performance and a few more successful scoring possessions could be enough to win, but laying points against a New England defense coming off such a strong showing is difficult.

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks and Prediction

Pick: New England Patriots +2.5

New England +2.5 is the side pick. The Patriots just won 20-3 on the road, while Jacksonville scored only 13 points in Denver. The Jaguars deserve some respect as the home team, but the matchup appears much closer than one in which laying points provides significant value. New England’s defense gives the Patriots a realistic opportunity to remain within one possession throughout the afternoon.

Pick: Under 44.5

Under 44.5 is the stronger total angle. The teams’ Week 2 games produced 23 and 33 combined points, respectively. New England has shown it can win through defense, while Jacksonville is coming off a 13-point offensive performance. Something in the 20-17 or 21-20 range fits this matchup considerably better than a shootout.

Final Picks: New England Patriots +2.5 and Under 44.5