New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 1 2026

Miami finally won a football game last week. Beat the Jets 28-25, snapped a five-game losing streak, and now everybody wants to know whether the Dolphins are starting to figure things out.

Well, I wouldn’t go that far.

Beating the Jets by three is one thing. Trying to handle New England is something else. The Patriots have been throwing the ball pretty well, and Miami has spent most of this season struggling to keep drives alive.

New England visits Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Sunday, November 1, with kickoff at 4:25 PM ET on CBS. The Patriots are favored by seven points, and the total is 43.5 at FanDuel. The forecast calls for temperatures around 79 degrees, winds near 15 mph with gusts potentially reaching 28, and a high chance of passing showers. That’s worth watching, particularly for the passing game and field-goal attempts. With the NFL season picking up you should make sure you check out our free NFL picks to find a winner.

New England Patriots Have the Better Passing Game

New England is 4-3, coming off a 30-24 loss to Chicago on October 22. Before that, the Patriots beat the Jets 26-19 and the Raiders 45-17. So they’ve shown they can score when the offense gets rolling. They haven’t been perfect, but this is a much better team than the one Miami has been putting on the field.

The Patriots have been particularly effective throwing the football. Their passing attack ranks near the top of the league in efficiency, and they’re getting enough protection to keep the offense moving. Defensively, New England allows 20.4 points per game, ninth-best in the NFL. That’s the number I like against Miami. You don’t have to shut the Dolphins out. Just make them put together long drives without mistakes, something they haven’t been doing very well.

Drake Maye has thrown for more than 1,700 yards with 13 touchdowns, and he’s been playing with a lot more confidence. He’s finding receivers early and isn’t afraid to take a shot when the coverage gives him one. A.J. Brown is questionable with ankle and knee injuries, and TreVeyon Henderson is questionable because of an illness. Maye practiced fully despite a right shoulder issue. Those are important details, especially Brown’s status. New England can still win without him, but the passing game is more dangerous when he’s available.

Miami Dolphins Need More Than One Good Afternoon

Miami is 1-5, and last week’s 28-25 win over the Jets was its first victory of the season. The Dolphins needed that badly. But I’m not going to forget the first five losses just because they finally got one in the win column.

Miami averages only 16.3 points per game, ranking 30th in the league. The Dolphins also rank near the bottom in passing yards and completion percentage. They’re running fewer than 57 offensive plays per game, which tells you how often drives are ending without much happening. Against a New England defense that’s been limiting scoring opportunities, that’s a real problem. Miami needs to stay ahead of the chains and avoid third-and-long situations.

Malik Willis has been dealing with a groin issue but practiced fully Friday. He gives Miami a running threat at quarterback, and that’s something New England has to account for. The Dolphins are also without offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor because of a concussion, while defensive backs JuJu Brents and Reese Taylor are questionable. Losing Proctor is particularly concerning because Miami already struggles to sustain offense. The Dolphins need better blocking, not another change up front.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Prediction

New England Patriots -7

I’m taking New England minus seven. Miami could make this uncomfortable if Willis gets loose and starts picking up first downs with his legs. That’s the part that worries me. But the Patriots have been much more dependable throwing the football, and their defense is allowing only about 20 points a game. Miami is averaging just over 16. I don’t want to lay a touchdown on the road without a good reason, but I think Maye gives New England enough of an edge to get it done. Give me the Patriots by ten.

Under 43.5 Points

I’ll take Under 43.5. Miami’s offense hasn’t been good, and New England’s defense has been doing a decent job keeping teams out of the end zone. The weather could help the Under too, especially if those showers arrive during the game. The concern is Maye having a big afternoon against Miami’s secondary and pushing New England into the 30s. That could happen. But I don’t think the Dolphins contribute enough to make this a high-scoring game. Something like New England 27-16 is my call.

Final Picks: New England Patriots -7 and Under 43.5 Points