New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction and Picks - Sunday, September 14
Two teams that started the 2025 NFL season with losses will be looking for better fortunes in Week 2. For great side and total picks on this game, read on for our New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins prediction and picks. Kick-off is scheduled for 1pm ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, home of the Dolphins.
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Patriots brace for another tough year
The New England Patriots (0-1) began the year with a new face on the sidelines after hiring Mike Vrabel as their head coach. Vrabel, who spent five seasons with the Titans between 2018 and 2023, was hired to replace Jerod Mayo, who was shown the door after just one year in charge, having taken New England to a 4-13 record in the 2024 regular season. He got a clear view of how big the challenge will be in Week 1 as the Pats folded to a 20-13 loss at home to Las Vegas. New England went almost the entire second half without getting a single point before Andy Borregales slotted his second field goal of the game with 19 seconds left on the clock.
Offensively, the Patriots were extremely one-dimensional, relying almost exclusively on the passing game and picking up 287 yards through the air compared to a mere 60 on the ground. Drake Maye completed 30-46 attempts with a TD for a career-high 287 passing yards, but also threw for an interception and took four sacks in a disappointing start to the year for the young QB. New England also had a tough time of things against another pass-heavy offense, giving up 333 passing yards to Geno Smith and the Raiders on an average of 10.6 yds/completion - the second-worst mark in all of the NFL in Week 1 on both of those categories. The Patriots' injury report on Thursday listed CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) and DE Keion White (illness) as non-participants.
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Dolphins pay price for mistakes
It is far too early to know whether Miami (0-1) can reclaim a place in the postseason in 2025 after missing out last year. What is certain is that the Dolphins will not come close if they keep committing the mistakes on offense that led them down the road to disaster in Week 1. Miami came unstuck in a 33-8 blowout to the Colts, finally getting on the board with six minutes left in the game after putting up three and a half scoreless quarters in Indianapolis.
Tua Tagovailoa was the big culprit on Miami's side in a rough start for the QB. Tagovailoa threw for just 114 yards against the Colts, his worst mark since January 2022. He completed 60.9% of his pass attempts while throwing for two INTs and also losing a fumble, handing possession back to Indianapolis on no fewer than three occasions. The QB was also sacked three times for a total loss of 13 yards. The Dolphins' defense let the Colts off the hook over and over again, allowing them to complete 7-15 third-down conversions and a perfect 3-3 fourth-down attempts while giving up a total of 419 yards, the fourth-highest tally from Week 1. For Sunday's game, Miami is looking at two absences in its OL. Right guard James Daniels (pectoral/ankle) has gone on the IR with an expected recovery time of four weeks, while right tackle Austin Jackson (toe) didn't finish the Colts game and is expected to also sit this weekend.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Pick
Spread Pick for New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
- Dolphins -1.5 (five units)
The Dolphins were a mess in Week 1, but I think they will tighten up and cover in front of their own fans. Tagovailoa loves playing the Pats: he has a 7-0 record against New England in his career and has thrown 300+ yards in each of the two most recent games between these two teams with seven TDs and a single INT. Last year, this game was a comfortable win in Miami's favor at Hard Rock Stadium as it beat New England 34-15. The Pats went 7-9-1 ATS in 2024 and 5-8 when playing after a loss.
Take the Dolphins.
Over/Under Pick for New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
- Under 43.5 (five units)
These are two teams that are yet to get going on offense, and I think Sunday's total will reflect that. Miami picked up just 211 offensive yards in Week 1, ranking 30th in the NFL. The Patriots did better, but it was almost entirely thanks to the passing game and that strategy is risky against a strong defense. In 2024, Miami ranked ninth in the league by allowing just 63.8% pass completion while only five teams allowed fewer passing TDs than the Dolphins' 22. The Pats were 3-5 on the over last year on the road. Miami had an O/U record of 8-9 overall in 2024. The Dolphins averaged 20.3 points per game last season (22nd in NFL) while allowing 21.4 ppg (10th in NFL).
Take the under.
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