New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints Picks and Prediction, October 12, 2025
Use Code SSWC In a non-conference matchup in the Big Easy on Sunday afternoon, the New Orleans Saints (1-4) play host to the New England Patriots (3-2). The Saints are coming off their first win of the season and the Patriots have won two in a row. Right here in this New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints prediction, you can check out the full score info and other free NFL picks.
The Patriots come to the Caesars Superdome as a road favorite posted at -3.5 with a total of 46.
Here Come the Patriots!
After losing two of their first three games, the Patriots have won their last two games and their last one was impressive, beating the Buffalo Bills 23-20, knocking them from the ranks of the unbeaten. While they were outgained 363 yards to 338 yards, they held Buffalo to three points in the first half and forced three turnovers while committing one. Drake Maye did not have a TD but was not picked off and passed for 273 yards, and Stefon Diggs had 146 yards against his former team. New England covered as an 8-point underdog, and they have covered the spread in two in a row and in three of four games.
- While the Pats rank in the top 12 in ppg and points against per game and seventh in passing yards per game, they still only rank 27th in rushing yards per game.
- Maye (1,261 yards 7 TD 2 INT) ranks 13th and has been playing with poise, but is still the second most sacked QB in the league.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (139 yards 2 TD) is the leading rusher but has not rushed for over 18 yards in two of the last three games.
- Diggs (359 yards) has gone for over 100 receiving yards in each of the last two games.
- New England is a little banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but has no major injuries.
- The Pats will face a Saints’ defense that ranks a legit ninth against the pass but only 20th against the run.
Saints Rack Up Turnovers in First Win
In their last game, the Saints were at home in a 26-14 win over the New York Giants, where they forced five turnovers and did not commit any. Those turnovers were vital, as New Orleans was outgained 335 yards to 332 yards and only rushed for 88 yards. Spencer Rattler passed for 225 yards with a TD, Kendre Miller led the way with only 41 rushing yards, and Rashid Shaheed had 114 receiving yards and a TD. The Saints covered as a 2.5-point underdog and have covered the spread in their last two games after failing to do so in their first three games.
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- It’s not a shock that the Saints are 1-4, as they only rank 24th in the league in ppg and 24th in points against per game.
- Rattler (990 yards 6 TD 1 INT) ranks 19th in QBR and has one TD and no INT in each of the last two games.
- Alvin Kamara (283 yards 1 TD) is the lead back and is listed as questionable and Miller (165 yards 1 TD) has combined to rush for 105 yards in the last two games.
- Three players have at least 221 receiving yards, led by Shaheed (288 yards 2 TD).
- Rattler and company will be up against a Pats’ D that only ranks 26th against the pass but fourth against the run.
New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints Pick
Spread Pick for Patriots vs. Saints
- Patriots -3.5 (+4 Units)
The Patriots have won two in a row, and the Saints are coming off their first win of the season. Both the team’s QBs have played pretty well, despite neither team having many offensive weapons. Maye has gotten more of the press and that is not shocking since the Pats are over .500 and are coming off a huge win, handing the Bills their first loss of the season. New England has had issues protecting Maye, but the Saints only rank in the middle of the pack in terms of team sacks. Regarding the New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints prediction, Maye and the Pats will stay hot and build on their huge win with a win and covering the spread against the one-win Saints.
Over/Under Pick for Patriots vs. Saints
- Under 46 (4 units)
The total has gone under for the last two games for the Patriots and for the last game for the Saints, and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this game. Neither team has a dynamic offense, especially the Saints, who only rank 28th in the NFL in points per game. While both teams will be balanced running and passing the ball in this non-conference affair, neither team is set up for the big play. While both teams have issues on D, they also have issues on the offensive side of the ball, and in a lower-scoring affair in the Big Easy, the Under is the pick.
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