New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks Picks and Prediction for Wednesday September 9 2026

The 2026 NFL season gets underway Wednesday night with the New England Patriots traveling to Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington, for a rematch with the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 PM ET on September 9, with NBC and Peacock carrying the season opener. Seattle enters its title defense at home after finishing 14-3 last season, while New England returns to the scene of one of the biggest games in franchise history looking to begin another run through the AFC. The current betting market has Seattle favored by 3.5 points with a total of 44.5, while the Seahawks are around -187 on the moneyline and New England is approximately +155. This matchup looks considerably closer than simply comparing last year's final results might suggest. Get ready for the NFL action with our free NFL picks.

New England Gets Another Shot at Seattle

New England enters Week 1 with the difficult assignment of opening on the road against the defending champions, but the Patriots should have no shortage of motivation. This is an immediate rematch of Super Bowl LX, giving New England an opportunity to measure the changes it made during the offseason against the team that ended its previous season.

The Patriots were already good enough to reach the Super Bowl last season, and their offense showed that it could operate at a high level. The bigger question Wednesday will be whether New England can consistently sustain drives against a Seattle defense that was particularly strong against the run last season. Seattle allowed only 91.9 rushing yards per game, ranking third in the NFL, while its pass defense allowed 193.9 yards per game and ranked 10th.

That creates an interesting tactical challenge for New England. Trying to establish a conventional ground attack against Seattle may be difficult, meaning the Patriots could have to lean more heavily on their passing game and create manageable situations through shorter throws. New England cannot afford to consistently face third-and-long against a Seattle defense playing in front of what should be a loud opening-night crowd.

The point spread is what makes New England attractive from a betting standpoint. Seattle deserves to be favored at home, but getting more than a field goal with a Patriots team coming off a Super Bowl appearance creates value. This does not necessarily require New England to win the game; it simply asks the Patriots to keep the season opener within one possession.

Seattle Begins Its Super Bowl Defense at Home

Seattle could hardly ask for a bigger stage on which to begin its championship defense. The Seahawks return to Lumen Field as defending Super Bowl champions, and the NFL has placed them in the spotlight for the league's Wednesday night opener. Seattle went 14-3 last season before completing its postseason run with the franchise's second Lombardi Trophy.

The Seahawks' defense is one of the biggest reasons to be cautious about expecting New England to immediately take control offensively. Seattle's ability to limit opposing rushing attacks should allow the defense to concentrate on creating difficult passing situations. If the Seahawks can win early downs and force New England into obvious passing situations, the home-field environment becomes even more valuable.

There are, however, reasons not to automatically lay the points with Seattle. The Seahawks enter the opener dealing with changes to their roster, and their backfield has taken a significant hit entering Week 1. That could affect Seattle's ability to establish the type of balanced offense that would make it easier to protect a lead and control the second half.

Seattle still deserves to be the straight-up favorite. Home field, its defensive profile and its championship pedigree all point toward the Seahawks having a slight overall advantage. The more difficult question is whether Seattle should be laying more than a field goal against a New England team capable of making this a four-quarter game.

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks Picks and Prediction

Pick: New England Patriots +3.5

Seattle may ultimately win the game, but New England +3.5 is the stronger betting position. The Patriots are getting the valuable hook above a field goal in a matchup between the two teams that reached last season's Super Bowl. Seattle's defense and home-field advantage make the Seahawks deserving favorites, but laying 3.5 requires them to win by at least four points. New England should be capable of staying competitive deep into the fourth quarter, and Seattle's offensive personnel concerns reduce the appeal of asking the defending champions to win by margin. Take the Patriots +3.5 in what projects as a close season opener.

Pick: Under 44.5

The Under 44.5 is the second play. Seattle's defensive performance from last season is the foundation of the handicap, particularly its ability to limit the running game. That could force New England into longer possessions built around shorter passing opportunities rather than explosive rushing plays. Seattle may also have reason to play conservatively with its own offensive personnel situation. Season openers can require time for offenses to establish rhythm, and this matchup has enough defensive strength to make every scoring opportunity valuable. A game played somewhere in the low 40s fits the matchup, making Under 44.5 the preferred total.

Final Picks: New England Patriots +3.5 and Under 44.5