New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Odds, Preview, Prediction and Picks for Sunday, November 9th, 2025
Use Code SSWC There’s a heavyweight matchup set for Sunday afternoon in this Patriots vs. Bucs prediction. The New England Patriots (7-2) hit the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) in a non-conference matchup. We’ve got you covered with our Patriots vs. Buccaneers prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NFL Betting Picks!
Pats vs. Bucs Matchup
Patriots Win Sixth Straight Game
This is Mike Vrabel’s debut season as the head coach of the New England Patriots, and you couldn’t have dreamt up a better start for the team. They’re 7-2 out of the gate, and they’ve now won their last six games. The current streak has seen the Pats take care of the Panthers (42-13), Bills (23-20), Saints (25-19), Titans (31-13), Browns (32-13), and Falcons (24-23), most recently. They sit atop the AFC East with a 0.5-game cushion over the Bills. From a sports betting perspective, New England is priced at +135 to win the division and +2500 to win the Super Bowl. As for the game-by-game numbers, they’re 6-3 ATS and 5-4 to the over.
In terms of personnel, it’s QB Drake Maye leading the charge for the Patriots this year. The second-year man has thrown for 2,285 yards on a 74.1% completion rate, adding 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. WR Stefon Diggs has emerged as his top target with 508 yards and two touchdowns on 45 receptions. RB TreVeyon Henderson has spearheaded the ground game with 283 yards and a touchdown on 67 carries (4.2 YPC).
- New England’s offense has been elite this season, ranking seventh in scoring (26.3 PPG), while putting up 350.7 yards per game (12th).
- On the defensive side, the Patriots are sixth this season, allowing 18.8 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re ninth, conceding 299.0 yards per contest.
- Injury Report: Each of the following players is confirmed out for Sunday: WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), LB Christian Elliss (hip), and RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe).
Buccaneers Sit Atop the NFC South
Meanwhile, Coach Todd Bowles and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in search of their fifth straight division title. So far, the 6-2 Bucs sit atop the NFC South with a 1.0-game cushion over the Panthers. They’re a massive -800 favorite to win the division, while sitting at +2000 to win the Super Bowl. Tampa has won three of its last four games. They beat the Seahawks (38-35) and 49ers (30-19) before losing to the Lions (24-9), but bounced back last time out with an easy win over the lowly Saints (23-3). The Bucs are 5-3 ATS, and they’ve split their totals 4-4 to the over/under.
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QB Baker Mayfield leads the offense this year, and he’s putting together an excellent campaign. He comes into the weekend with 1,919 passing yards on a 63.9% completion rate, adding 13 touchdowns and two picks. Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka has been the top target in the passing game, hauling in 34 passes for 562 yards and five touchdowns. RB Rachaad White is the lead back, gaining 287 yards and four touchdowns on 77 carries (3.7 YPC).
- Offensively, the Bucs are scoring 24.6 points per game (14th), while averaging 323.0 yards per week (17th).
- Defensively, they are 13th in the NFL this year, conceding 22.3 points per game. They’re allowing 321.4 yards per contest, which is 16th.
Key Injury Report and Analysis
New England:
Starters who are out.
- LB Christian Elliss (hip)
- RB Rhomondre Stevenson (toe)
Tampa Bay:
Starters who are out.
- WR Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula)
- RB Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder)
- OLB Haason Reddick (ankle/knee)
- OT Luke Haggard (shoulder)
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Pick
Spread Pick for Pats vs. Bucs
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110) (5 units)
I like the Buccaneers in this spot, and I love that we don’t have to lay the full field goal’s worth of points here. Tampa Bay is a bit banged up, but they’re also coming off a bye week, which should allow their backups to get dialed into the schemes and strategies for this game.
Also, I’m just looking to sell high on the Patriots. New England is 7-2 SU, but they’ve literally played the easiest schedule in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. This is a great time to bet against a young quarterback going on the road against a quality opponent. Tampa is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games, and that’s a notable trend since we’re hanging out in the pick ‘em range in this contest. I’ll take the veteran Baker Mayfield over the young Drake Maye, especially with extra rest for Mayfield and the Bucs.
Over/Under Pick for Patriots vs. Buccaneers
- Over 48.0 (-110) (5 units)
This is a pretty fair total, but I do think it’s best to play the over 48.0 points. There is one huge area of concern for me with the Pats in this game, and it’s their secondary. They’re allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.1% of their passes this season, which is 28th overall. Baker Mayfield should shred this defense, and I won’t be surprised if the Bucs hang 30+ points in this one.
From a trends perspective, the over is 5-1 in Tampa’s last six home games. It’s 4-2 in their last six games overall. New England is 11-5 to the over in its last 16 games. Drake Maye owns a 74.1% completion rate, which suggests that his coaches are putting him in spots to succeed and excel. I think both offenses find enough success to push this final score over the number.
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