New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys Picks and Prediction for Friday August 28, 2026

The New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys close out their 2026 preseason schedules on Friday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. CT), with ESPN Unlimited among the viewing options. Dallas enters the finale 2-0, while New Orleans is 0-2 and trying to rebound from an ugly shutout loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Be prepared for the NFL season with our free NFL picks.

The betting market currently has Dallas favored by 2.5 points, with the Cowboys around -126 on the moneyline and New Orleans around +108. The total sits at 38.5. That's a relatively modest number considering how productive the Dallas reserve offense has been, but the Saints' inability to generate points last week creates a legitimate argument for the Under.

Saints Need a Major Offensive Response

New Orleans enters the finale looking for answers after being thoroughly outplayed by Los Angeles. The Saints lost 34-0 to the Rams in Week 2, dropping to 0-2 in the preseason. New Orleans finished with 293 total yards, including 196 through the air and 105 on the ground, but repeatedly failed to convert its movement into points.

The scoreless performance is the biggest concern heading into Dallas. Preseason results don't carry much predictive value by themselves, but offensive execution among the backups absolutely matters when evaluating a finale. Turnovers and penalties contributed to the problems against Los Angeles, and New Orleans now faces a Dallas reserve group that has performed well through two games.

The Saints have averaged only 10 points per game through their first two preseason contests. That puts additional pressure on the offense to show progress Friday night, especially with roster decisions approaching.

From a betting perspective, New Orleans doesn't necessarily need to become an explosive offense to cover +2.5. It does, however, need to eliminate the mistakes that destroyed drives against the Rams. Another performance resembling Week 2 would make it extremely difficult to stay competitive against a Dallas team whose quarterback depth has become one of its biggest preseason strengths.

Cowboys Have Been One of the Better Preseason Teams

Dallas enters its home preseason finale 2-0, and the Cowboys are coming off an impressive 34-13 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Dallas jumped ahead 14-0 in the first quarter, led 24-6 at halftime and controlled the game throughout.

The biggest reason to like Dallas in this matchup is the quarterback situation. Joe Milton threw two touchdown passes and ran for another score against Arizona while continuing to compete with Sam Howell for the No. 2 quarterback position behind Dak Prescott. Howell completed 7 of 10 passes for 65 yards in the second half, although he also threw an interception in the end zone.

That quarterback competition is exactly the type of situation I want when betting a preseason finale. Dallas isn't simply trying to get through four quarters. Milton and Howell have something meaningful at stake, and head coach Brian Schottenheimer has said he believes the Cowboys have two capable backup quarterbacks competing for the job.

Dallas has also received production elsewhere on the depth chart. Jaydon Blue rushed for 75 yards on 15 carries against Arizona, while undrafted receiver Camden Brown has continued making an impression during the preseason.

The Cowboys rested most of their starters against Arizona and still won by 21 points. That's perhaps the most important handicapping point of all. Dallas has demonstrated that the players expected to handle Friday night's extended preseason snaps are capable of controlling a game without significant assistance from the top of the roster.

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys Picks and Prediction

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -2.5

I'm taking Dallas -2.5. This isn't simply a play based on Dallas being 2-0 and New Orleans being 0-2. The underlying preseason circumstances favour the Cowboys as well.

Dallas has a legitimate quarterback competition between Milton and Howell, and Milton's performance against Arizona demonstrated what he can do against reserve defenders. The Cowboys scored 34 points despite resting most of their starters, while New Orleans couldn't score at all against the Rams.

That's a significant difference when we're trying to determine which roster is better equipped to win the second half of a preseason finale. The Saints should be motivated to produce a much better performance, but motivation doesn't automatically fix execution.

With the spread sitting below a field goal, Dallas is my preferred side.

Take the Dallas Cowboys -2.5.

Pick: Under 38.5

Under 38.5 is my total pick. Dallas has demonstrated enough offensive firepower to make the Over tempting, particularly after putting 34 points on Arizona. But the total requires New Orleans to contribute considerably more than it did against Los Angeles.

The Saints have scored only 20 points through two preseason games, including zero last week. Dallas doesn't need another 30-point performance for the Cowboys -2.5 ticket to cash, and I can see the game slowing considerably once the deepest portions of both rosters take over.

Something around 23-13 Dallas fits the matchup. That would give the Cowboys a comfortable cover while keeping the combined score below 38.5.

Take Under 38.5.

Final Saints vs Cowboys Prediction

Dallas has shown substantially more through the first two preseason games. The Cowboys are 2-0, just beat Arizona 34-13 and have a quarterback competition that should keep their reserve offense aggressive. New Orleans, meanwhile, needs to prove its 34-0 loss to the Rams was an aberration rather than an indication of problems with its offensive depth.

The spread is short enough that I'm comfortable asking Dallas to win by a field goal, while New Orleans' offensive struggles make the Under the better choice on the total.

Final Picks: Dallas Cowboys -2.5 and Under 38.5.

Projected Score: Dallas Cowboys 23, New Orleans Saints 13.