New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 13 2026

The New Orleans Saints travel to Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, to face the Detroit Lions on Sunday, September 13, in the regular-season opener for both teams. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on FOX. Detroit enters as a substantial home favorite, with the current market around Lions -7 and a total of 49.5. The matchup brings together an established Detroit offense led by Jared Goff against a New Orleans team hoping Tyler Shough can build upon an encouraging finish to his rookie season. The Saints also enter Week 1 with a significant problem in the backfield, as Alvin Kamara is expected to miss the opener with a knee injury. The NFL season is just starting and you can easily start off on the right foot with our free NFL picks.

Tyler Shough Gets His First Full Season as the Saints Starter

Tyler Shough enters 2026 as one of the most intriguing young quarterbacks in the NFC after taking over the New Orleans offense midway through last season. Shough appeared in 11 games and started nine, completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also contributed 186 rushing yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, New Orleans went 5-4 in his nine starts, including four victories over the final five games.

That finish gives New Orleans more reason for optimism than its overall 2025 results might suggest. Shough led all rookie quarterbacks in completion percentage, passer rating and wins as a starter, and his ability to contribute with his legs gives Kellen Moore another element to incorporate into the offense. This is no longer a rookie simply trying to survive NFL defenses; Shough now has a full offseason as the focal point of the Saints' offense.

The problem is the absence of Alvin Kamara. New Orleans is expected to be without its veteran running back because of a sprained MCL, while additional injuries have reduced the Saints' offensive depth. That puts more responsibility on Shough against a Detroit team that should be capable of forcing New Orleans to chase points if the Lions start quickly.

The Saints did show improvement late last season, and that makes laying a full touchdown less automatic than it might initially appear. Shough has demonstrated that he can operate the offense efficiently, and New Orleans' best chance is to sustain drives, keep Goff and Detroit's offense on the sideline and prevent the game from turning into a track meet.

Jared Goff Leads Another Loaded Detroit Offense

Jared Goff enters 2026 after another excellent season. He completed 68% of his passes for 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns and only eight interceptions in 2025, producing a 105.5 passer rating. Those numbers reinforce why Detroit remains so dangerous when Goff is protected and operating on schedule.

Goff continues to have one of the NFL's best collections of offensive weapons. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 1,223 yards and 13 touchdowns last season while catching 77 passes for another 616 yards and five scores. Detroit traded David Montgomery during the offseason, positioning Gibbs for an even larger role in 2026. The Lions also return Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta as primary targets for Goff.

Detroit's first-team offense looked sharp at the end of training camp. Goff, Gibbs and St. Brown led a productive scrimmage, with Goff connecting repeatedly with St. Brown and Williams while Gibbs remained heavily involved. That is meaningful because Detroit largely protected Goff during preseason games rather than exposing its veteran quarterback to unnecessary hits.

There are defensive injury concerns for Detroit, particularly in the secondary, and LaPorta has also dealt with a hip issue. Those are reasons to be somewhat cautious about laying a huge number. But offensively, the Lions have a substantial advantage in proven production and are opening at Ford Field.

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions Picks and Prediction

Pick: Detroit Lions -7

New Orleans has enough upside with Shough to make this interesting for stretches, but Detroit -7 is the preferred side. Goff is coming off 4,564 yards and 34 touchdown passes, Gibbs gives Detroit an elite multidimensional threat, and the Lions' primary receiving weapons remain intact. New Orleans losing Kamara is particularly important because the Saints need to control possession to keep Detroit from dictating the game. Shough played well after becoming the starter last season, but opening his first full year as QB1 at Ford Field without his veteran running back is a difficult assignment. Detroit has enough offensive firepower to eventually create separation. Take the Lions -7.

Pick: Over 49.5

The Over 49.5 is the preferred total. Detroit has the offensive personnel to reach the high 20s or low 30s on its own, while Shough's late-season performance suggests New Orleans can contribute enough to push the game past this number. Detroit also enters the season with concerns in its secondary, which gives the Saints a path to generating offense even without Kamara. Something in the neighborhood of 31-20 or 31-23 fits the matchup. Take Over 49.5.

Final Picks: Detroit Lions -7 and Over 49.5