New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction and Picks - December 7, 2025
Sunday afternoon National Football League action, and we have a New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction locked and loaded for you. The Saints come in off a hard-fought loss to Miami on the road, and they are now 2-10 on the year. The Buccaneers are off a 20-17 home win over Arizona and they are now 7-5 on the year. Tampa has won six of the last seven in this series. Read on to see our Saints vs Buccaneers prediction.
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Saints Fall Short Against Miami
The Saints’ most recent game was a 21–17 loss to the Miami Dolphins on November 30, where rookie quarterback Tyler Shough threw for 239 yards and two touchdowns but was intercepted on a two‑point conversion attempt that sealed the defeat. It was another close call for a team that has now dropped four of its last five, underscoring how narrow the margins have been in a season where New Orleans simply hasn’t been able to finish games.
Offensively, New Orleans has struggled all year, averaging just 296.6 yards per game (26th) and a league‑low 15.2 points per game. Their rushing attack ranks 29th at 90.7 yards per game, and with Alvin Kamara ruled out (knee/MCL), the ground game falls to Devin Neal and Evan Hull to carry the load. Shough has shown flashes, completing 65.2% of his passes with five touchdowns and four interceptions, but turnovers remain a problem — the Saints have committed 19 giveaways, ranking 30th. Chris Olave, who is questionable with a back injury, leads the team with 781 receiving yards, and his availability will be critical to keeping defenses honest.
Defensively, the Saints have been far more competitive, ranking 12th in total defense (314.6 yards allowed per game) and seventh against the pass (187.7 yards allowed). Cameron Jordan continues to anchor the front with 6.5 sacks, while Demario Davis leads with 111 tackles. Still, injuries loom large: OT Taliese Fuaga (ankle, out) and S Justin Reid (knee, out) weaken both the offensive line and secondary. Without their top playmakers, New Orleans faces an uphill battle against Tampa Bay’s balanced attack.
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Buccaneers Hold Off The Cardinals
Tampa Bay’s most recent game was a 20–17 win over the Arizona Cardinals on November 30, where Baker Mayfield threw for 194 yards and a touchdown, and running back Bucky Irving added 61 rushing yards and a score. The victory snapped a three‑game losing streak and kept the Buccaneers atop the NFC South, though they remain just a half‑game ahead of Carolina.
Offensively, the Buccaneers average 316.2 yards per game (21st) and 23.3 points per game (17th). Mayfield has been steady, throwing for 2,600 yards with 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Emeka Egbuka has emerged as the top receiving option with 791 yards and six touchdowns, while Chris Godwin Jr. returned two weeks ago and provides another reliable target. The run game has been modest at 109.8 yards per game, but Irving’s return adds balance. Tampa Bay has been disciplined with the football, committing only nine turnovers, fifth‑fewest in the league.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has been inconsistent, allowing 344.9 yards per game (22nd) and 25.1 points per game (23rd). They rank sixth against the run (97.4 yards allowed) but have struggled against the pass (247.5 yards allowed, 29th). Injuries remain a factor: WR Mike Evans (collarbone, IR) and WR Jalen McMillan (neck, IR) are out, while OT Tristan Wirfs (oblique, questionable) and CB Benjamin Morrison (hamstring, questionable) could impact protection and coverage. Even so, Tampa Bay has generated 11 takeaways, and Todd Bowles’ defense has historically fared well against rookie quarterbacks. With Mayfield healthy and the offense regaining weapons, the Buccaneers enter this divisional matchup favored to extend their lead in the NFC South.
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick
Saints vs Buccaneers Spread Pick
- New Orleans +9 (4 Units)
Taking New Orleans +9 makes sense because even though the Saints have been one of the league’s lowest‑scoring teams at just 15.2 points per game, their defense has kept them competitive. They rank seventh against the pass (187.7 yards allowed per game) and 12th overall in total defense, which gives them a chance to slow down Baker Mayfield and a Tampa Bay offense that has been steady but not explosive. In their most recent outing, a 21–17 loss to Miami, the Saints showed resilience by hanging around against a playoff contender despite missing Alvin Kamara. With Tyler Shough settling in at quarterback and Chris Olave expected to play through a back issue, New Orleans has enough weapons to keep this game within reach.
The other angle is Tampa Bay’s inconsistency. The Buccaneers average 23.3 points per game, but they’ve struggled against teams that can defend the pass, and New Orleans’ secondary is one of the better units they’ll face. Tampa Bay’s defense has also been shaky, allowing 25.1 points per game and ranking 29th against the pass (247.5 yards allowed), which opens the door for Shough to find success through the air. Even if the Saints’ offense isn’t built to win shootouts, their defense and ball‑control approach can shorten the game and keep it close. With the spread sitting at +9, New Orleans doesn’t need to win outright — they just need to lean on their defense and avoid turnovers to cover against a divisional rival.
Saints vs Buccaneers Over/Under Pick
- Over 41.5 (4 Units)
The Over 41.5 looks like a strong angle because both teams bring vulnerabilities that point toward points piling up. Tampa Bay averages 23.3 points per game and has been efficient with the football, committing only nine turnovers, while New Orleans’ defense, though solid against the pass, still allows 24.6 points per game and has struggled against the run (126.9 yards allowed per game). On the other side, the Saints’ offense has been anemic at times, but they showed life in their 21–17 loss to Miami, and Tyler Shough should find opportunities against a Buccaneers secondary that ranks 29th in the league, giving up 247.5 passing yards per game. With Tampa Bay’s defense prone to breakdowns and New Orleans capable of capitalizing through the air, this divisional matchup has the right ingredients for a total that clears the 41.5 mark.
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