New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction and Picks - December 28, 2025
The New York Giants (2-13) travel to Allegiant Stadium this Sunday to face the Las Vegas Raiders (2-13) in a matchup that has massive implications—not for the playoffs, but for the 2026 NFL Draft. Both teams enter Week 17 on staggering nine-game losing streaks, tied for the worst record in the league. This rare meeting of two teams 11 games under .500 is a battle for the No. 1 overall pick, as the Giants currently hold the tiebreaker for the top spot. While the stakes on the field are low, both locker rooms are desperate to avoid being the team that finishes the season with a double-digit losing streak.
The Giants vs Raiders is a good game, but you can check out all of our other free NFL picks.
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New York Giants Searching for First Road Win
The Giants’ 2025 campaign has been defined by offensive futility and a winless 0-8 record on the road. Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has shown flashes of his first-round potential, throwing for 1,835 yards and 13 touchdowns, but he is coming off a nightmare performance against Minnesota where he was held to just 33 passing yards. The offense has struggled to find any rhythm behind a line that lost 60% of its starters to injury during last week's game. Running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. (575 yards) remains the focal point of the ground game, but he’ll be running behind a depleted unit on Sunday.
The one bright spot for New York has been their pass rush. Brian Burns has put together a Pro Bowl-caliber season with 15 sacks, leading a defense that ranks 6th in the league in total sacks. For the Giants to cover the 1.5-point spread, they will need Burns and Bobby Okereke to harass a mistake-prone Raiders backfield and force the turnovers that have eluded them during this two-month slump.
Las Vegas Raiders Dealing with Major Offensive Losses
The Raiders return home following a narrow 23-21 loss to the Texans, a game in which they showed more life than they have in weeks. However, that momentum was blunted on Wednesday when the team placed star tight end Brock Bowers and safety Jeremy Chinn on Season-Ending Injured Reserve. Bowers leads the team in every major receiving category, leaving quarterback Geno Smith without his primary security blanket. Smith has struggled with ball security this year, tossing 15 interceptions, and he will now have to rely heavily on rookie sensation Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty has been a lone bright spot for Las Vegas, tallying 828 rushing yards and five scores. He faces a Giants defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in $EPA/Rush$ allowed. If the Raiders are to win their second home game of the year, they must lean on Jeanty to exploit a Giants' run defense that allows a league-high 5.5 yards per carry.
Expert Picks and Predictions
ATS Pick For Raiders vs Giants
Las Vegas Raiders +1.5
When I look at this "Race for the Number One Pick," I have to side with the home team in a game that should be an ugly, low-scoring affair. The Giants have not won a single game outside of MetLife Stadium all year, and their offensive line is currently in shambles, which should allow Maxx Crosby to take over the game even if he's playing at less than 100%. While the loss of Brock Bowers is massive, Ashton Jeanty has the best matchup of his young career against a Giants run defense that is statistically the worst in the NFL. I'm taking the points with the Raiders to finally break their losing streak at home.
O/U Pick
Under 41.5
I am hammer-locking the Under in this matchup. These are two of the three lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL, and both are missing their most explosive weapons. The Giants' offense was "lifeless" last week, managing only 13 points, and Jaxson Dart is clearly hitting a rookie wall behind a backup offensive line. On the other side, the Raiders are missing their leading receiver (Bowers) and their quarterback has turned the ball over 15 times this season. With both teams ranking in the bottom five for red-zone efficiency, I don't see how this game reaches the 40s. Expect a defensive struggle that is won in the teens.
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