NFL Week 4 Picks: Predictions and Best Bets for Every Game
NFL Week 4 brings a full 16-game slate beginning Thursday night in Cleveland and ending Monday night with an NFC South matchup between Atlanta and New Orleans. The board features everything from a low-total AFC North battle to double-digit favorites in Baltimore and Minnesota, plus several games where quarterback injuries have already created major movement.
There are also several spreads sitting directly on or around important NFL numbers. That makes price especially important this week. A team getting +3.5 offers a very different wager than the same side at +2.5, while favorites sitting below a field goal can become much less attractive once the market moves through three.
Here are our NFL Week 4 picks for every game on the schedule.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Pick
Pittsburgh finally found some offensive rhythm in its 30-27 win over Cincinnati, with Aaron Rodgers throwing three touchdown passes and Jaylen Warren producing 176 yards from scrimmage. Cleveland has won two straight, but its offense remains inconsistent and the Browns are dealing with injury concerns along the offensive line.
That is a difficult setup against T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and a Pittsburgh defense capable of creating pressure without selling out in coverage. Cleveland should keep this close at home, but the Steelers have the more reliable path to scoring.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Pick
Washington heads to London without Jayden Daniels, leaving Marcus Mariota in charge again after his efficient three-touchdown performance against Seattle. Indianapolis is favored by more than a field goal, but that number gives Washington valuable protection in a game that should remain competitive.
The Commanders have enough rushing ability and defensive playmaking to keep Mariota from needing to carry the offense. Indianapolis is the more stable team, but laying 3.5 on a neutral field is asking more than simply picking the winner.
Pick: Washington Commanders +3.5
Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants Pick
Arizona's offense has shown considerably more explosiveness than New York's through three weeks. The Cardinals scored 30 points in San Francisco last week and continue to get steady quarterback play, while the Giants needed a defense-first performance to escape Tennessee 12-7.
New York's front can make this difficult, but the Cardinals have shown more ways to create touchdowns. With the line close to a pick'em, Arizona is the preferred side.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -1
Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Pick
Dallas can score. The problem is whether the Cowboys can consistently stop opponents from doing the same. Baltimore put up 34 points in Dallas last week, and the Cowboys now face a Houston team that should be more comfortable playing at home after a close loss in Indianapolis.
C.J. Stroud has not produced a breakout performance yet, but Houston's defensive front gives the Texans a meaningful matchup advantage. If Houston prevents Dak Prescott from consistently extending drives, the home side should have enough offense to cover a short spread.
Pick: Houston Texans -2.5
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick
This is one of the week's most important quarterback situations. Tampa Bay will be without Baker Mayfield after he dislocated his thumb, leaving rookie Jalon Daniels to make his first NFL start.
Green Bay has issues of its own after a 35-14 loss to Atlanta, but the Packers now face an inexperienced quarterback who went 0-for-3 with an interception in relief last week. Green Bay does not need an elite offensive performance if its defense can force Tampa Bay into long-yardage situations.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -4
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals Pick
Jacksonville has quietly built one of the strongest early-season defensive profiles in the league. The Jaguars have allowed only three touchdowns through three games, while Trevor Lawrence has thrown seven touchdown passes and looks increasingly comfortable in the offense.
Cincinnati is capable of winning this game behind Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, but the Bengals are being asked to cover against a Jacksonville team that has already shown it can win with both offense and defense.
The Jaguars also have an outright-win path, making the points attractive.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick
Philadelphia's 27-7 loss in Chicago raised real questions about an offense that has struggled to consistently protect Jalen Hurts. The Rams are only 1-2, but their defense has been more reliable than the record suggests.
Los Angeles also has the veteran quarterback advantage with Matthew Stafford. The Rams do not need to dominate this matchup. They need to create enough pressure on Hurts and avoid giving Philadelphia short fields.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams -3
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Pick
New England's 35-6 loss in Jacksonville exposed the gap between the Patriots and the AFC's stronger teams. Buffalo enters 3-0 and has already shown it can win both shootouts and more controlled games.
Josh Allen should create too much stress for a New England defense that cannot count on its offense to consistently answer. The spread is substantial, but it remains below seven at most books.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -6.5
New York Jets vs Chicago Bears Pick
Chicago produced one of Week 3's biggest surprises by beating Philadelphia 27-7 despite starting Case Keenum. Caleb Williams is expected to remain sidelined, which makes the Bears difficult to lay points with even after that impressive result.
The Jets lost in Detroit but Geno Smith threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. New York's defense has also been competitive enough to keep games close.
Getting the full field goal is more attractive than asking Chicago's backup-quarterback offense to produce another comfortable win.
Pick: New York Jets +3
Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens Pick
Tennessee has scored 20 combined points in its last two games and now faces a Baltimore team capable of turning a close game into a rout quickly. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry give the Ravens multiple ways to attack a Titans defense that will spend too much time on the field if the offense continues to struggle.
Double-digit NFL spreads always carry risk, but Tennessee has not shown enough offensive production to trust a backdoor cover.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -11.5
Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings Pick
Miami has scored only 23 points over its last two games, and now travels to Minnesota to face one of the league's stingiest early-season defenses. The Vikings are heavy favorites, but laying 11 or more points creates very little margin for error.
The cleaner approach is the total. Miami's offense has struggled to generate sustained scoring drives, while Minnesota has little reason to push the pace if it controls the game.
Pick: Under 38.5
Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers Pick
This is one of the most competitive games on the board. San Francisco is favored by roughly a field goal, but Denver just beat the Rams and has enough defensive talent to prevent Brock Purdy from playing a completely clean game.
The Broncos do not need to win outright to cash. Getting the full field goal is valuable in a matchup that projects to remain within one possession deep into the fourth quarter.
Pick: Denver Broncos +3
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Pick
Las Vegas is coming off its best offensive game of the season, scoring 35 points in New Orleans, but Kansas City presents a much more difficult defensive matchup. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs also looked more balanced in their 24-10 win at Miami.
Kansas City is laying less than a touchdown, which keeps the price manageable for a divisional favorite with the superior quarterback.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks Pick
Seattle's 33-31 loss in Washington was disappointing, but the Seahawks still generated 31 points and remain one of the NFC's more complete teams. The Chargers have scored only 30 combined points over their last two games.
Seven is a significant spread, so this becomes much less attractive if Seattle moves to -7.5. At a flat touchdown, the Seahawks are the side.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -7
Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers Pick
Carolina has been competitive, but Detroit brings a much higher offensive ceiling. The Lions have scored at least 30 points in all three games and have enough rushing and receiving depth to force Carolina to defend every part of the field.
The Panthers may keep this close for stretches, but Detroit laying only 3.5 creates a reasonable entry point for the better offense.
Pick: Detroit Lions -3.5
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Pick
Atlanta produced the most impressive result of Week 3, beating Green Bay 35-14 after Michael Penix Jr. returned to the lineup. New Orleans allowed 35 points to Las Vegas and now has to deal with an Atlanta offense that suddenly looks considerably more dangerous.
The Saints have home field and are short favorites, but the Falcons are getting points despite showing the higher ceiling last week.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2.5
NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Several games offer playable numbers, but five stand above the rest entering the week.
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs Cleveland Browns: Pittsburgh's improved rushing attack and pass rush give the Steelers the more repeatable advantages in a game lined below three.
Washington Commanders +3.5 vs Indianapolis Colts: Marcus Mariota gives Washington enough stability to stay competitive, and getting more than a field goal on the neutral London field is valuable.
Green Bay Packers -4 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay is turning the offense over to an undrafted rookie quarterback after Baker Mayfield's thumb injury.
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals: Jacksonville has been excellent defensively and has enough offensive upside to win outright.
Denver Broncos +3 vs San Francisco 49ers: Denver's defense and improving offense make the full field goal attractive in one of the week's closest matchups.
NFL Week 4 Picks Summary
- Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over Cleveland Browns
- Washington Commanders +3.5 over Indianapolis Colts
- Arizona Cardinals -1 over New York Giants
- Houston Texans -2.5 over Dallas Cowboys
- Green Bay Packers -4 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 over Cincinnati Bengals
- Los Angeles Rams -3 over Philadelphia Eagles
- Buffalo Bills -6.5 over New England Patriots
- New York Jets +3 over Chicago Bears
- Baltimore Ravens -11.5 over Tennessee Titans
- Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings Under 38.5
- Denver Broncos +3 over San Francisco 49ers
- Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 over Las Vegas Raiders
- Seattle Seahawks -7 over Los Angeles Chargers
- Detroit Lions -3.5 over Carolina Panthers
- Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over New Orleans Saints
Week 4 has several lines likely to move as injury reports develop, particularly Green Bay-Tampa Bay, Indianapolis-Washington and Jets-Bears. The best approach is to lock favorable key numbers when they are available rather than treating every version of a spread as the same wager.