NFL Week 5 Picks
NFL Week 5 Picks: Predictions and Best Bets for Every Game
NFL Week 5 brings a 15-game betting slate beginning Thursday night with Tampa Bay visiting Dallas and ending Monday night when Buffalo travels to Los Angeles to face the Rams.
This week's board has already produced some significant line movement. Philadelphia opened as a favorite against Jacksonville before the Jaguars moved to more than a touchdown favorite. Chicago and Green Bay have also flipped favorites, Houston has moved from a short favorite to more than a touchdown over Tennessee, and Atlanta has become the favorite against Baltimore with Lamar Jackson's status creating uncertainty.
Those moves make the current number especially important. A pick that made sense early in the week may no longer offer the same value after moving through a key number such as three or seven.
Here are our NFL Week 5 picks and predictions for every game on the schedule.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Pick
Tampa Bay enters Thursday night without Baker Mayfield, leaving rookie Jalon Daniels to make another start. The Buccaneers are also missing several defensive starters, including Antoine Winfield Jr., which creates a difficult matchup against Dak Prescott and a Dallas offense that has scored at least 30 points in three consecutive games.
The problem is the spread. Dallas has moved from a much smaller opening favorite to more than a touchdown, and Tampa Bay has continued to compete despite its 0-4 record.
Daniels gives the Buccaneers some mobility, and Tampa Bay can shorten the game by leaning on the rushing attack. Dallas should win, but asking the Cowboys to cover more than eight points creates backdoor risk.
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5
Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick
No Week 5 line has changed more dramatically than Philadelphia-Jacksonville. The Eagles opened as the favorite in London, but Jacksonville is now laying approximately 7.5 points.
That is a major adjustment after Philadelphia lost consecutive games and Jacksonville improved to 3-1.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars deserve to be favored, but Philadelphia still has Jalen Hurts and a defense capable of keeping the game competitive. Getting more than a touchdown is much more attractive than laying the inflated number after the market has already made such a massive adjustment.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Pick
Indianapolis has won two straight after beating Washington 30-13 in London. Jonathan Taylor gives the Colts a reliable way to control early downs and keep Daniel Jones from having to carry the offense.
Pittsburgh is coming off a 27-24 loss in Cleveland and remains inconsistent offensively. The Steelers still have a dangerous pass rush and home-field advantage, but Indianapolis has played the steadier football recently.
In a matchup priced below a field goal, taking the points with the more balanced offense has appeal.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +2.5
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints Pick
Minnesota has started 4-0 because its defense continues to control games. The Vikings held Miami to 10 points last week and have allowed only 29 points over their last three games.
New Orleans can move the football through Tyler Shough and Chris Olave, but the Saints have not paired that passing production with reliable defense. Atlanta scored 45 points against New Orleans on Monday night.
Minnesota does not need a huge offensive performance to cover a short spread. If its defense continues generating pressure and forcing difficult third downs, the Vikings should have enough offense to leave New Orleans with another loss.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -2.5
Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets Pick
Cleveland has quietly won three consecutive games after beginning the season 0-1. Deshaun Watson has protected the football better, and the Browns have repeatedly found ways to win close games.
New York has lost three of four and continues to deal with questions surrounding its offensive skill positions. The Jets scored only 12 points in Chicago last week.
The total is below 40, making every point on the spread more valuable. Cleveland is getting points despite owning the better record and entering with considerably better recent form.
Pick: Cleveland Browns +1.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins Pick
Miami remains winless and has scored only 33 points over its last three games. The Dolphins now face a Cincinnati team that should control the matchup even if the Bengals are not at full strength offensively.
The spread has moved beyond six points, which makes laying the number less attractive than attacking the total.
Miami has not shown enough scoring ability to force a high-possession game, while Cincinnati has no reason to play aggressively if it establishes a lead. The Bengals can win comfortably without the game reaching the mid-40s.
Pick: Under 42.5
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Pick
New England earned one of Week 4's biggest victories by beating Buffalo 29-26. That result deserves respect, but the Patriots are now being asked to cover more than a field goal against a Las Vegas team that has started 3-1.
Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards against Kansas City last week, and the Raiders have enough receiving talent to challenge New England vertically.
This projects as another one-score game. Getting the hook above three provides valuable protection for the road underdog.
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Pick
Washington should benefit from having Jayden Daniels back under center, but the Commanders are still only 1-3 and are being asked to cover more than a field goal against a Giants team that has won three games.
New York scored 36 points against Arizona last week and has continued finding ways to remain competitive despite its quarterback changes.
Daniels gives Washington the higher offensive ceiling, but the market has already priced that return into the spread. In a divisional matchup, the extra half point above three matters.
Pick: New York Giants +3.5
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Pick
Houston-Tennessee has produced another massive Week 5 move. The Texans opened as a short favorite and are now laying more than a touchdown despite entering the game 0-4.
Houston is better than its record in several statistical categories, but asking a winless road team to cover 7.5 points is an entirely different proposition from simply predicting a Texans victory.
Tennessee stayed within six points of Baltimore last week and can keep this game slow through Tony Pollard and the rushing attack.
The total below 40 also increases the value of getting more than a touchdown.
Pick: Tennessee Titans +7.5
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Pick
This NFC North matchup has flipped dramatically. Green Bay opened as the favorite, but Chicago has moved to a short favorite despite remaining without Caleb Williams.
The Bears have shown they can win with a conservative offensive approach and strong defensive play. Green Bay has also been drawn into low-scoring games, including last week's 17-14 win over Tampa Bay.
Rather than chase a side after the favorite has completely flipped, the total provides the cleaner angle.
Both teams have reasons to emphasize the run, field position and quarterback protection.
Pick: Under 45.5
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Pick
Los Angeles has started 0-4 and now faces additional offensive-line concerns entering a divisional matchup with Denver.
The Broncos have not been an explosive offensive team, but their defense creates a difficult matchup for a Chargers offense already struggling to protect Justin Herbert.
This line has completely flipped from Los Angeles being favored to Denver laying more than a field goal.
Normally that kind of movement can create value on the other side, but the Chargers' protection issues are difficult to overlook against Denver's defensive front.
Pick: Denver Broncos -3.5
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Pick
This may be the best game on Sunday's schedule.
San Francisco enters 4-0 while Seattle is 3-1, yet the undefeated 49ers are getting a full field goal in a divisional game.
Seattle deserves respect at Lumen Field and has been excellent defensively, but San Francisco has been the more complete team through four weeks. Brock Purdy has played efficient football, and the 49ers continue to find ways to win even when injuries create lineup changes.
Getting the full three points with the undefeated team is the preferred position.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers +3
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals Pick
Detroit-Arizona owns the highest total on the Week 5 board, and there is a good reason for it.
The Lions have averaged close to 30 points per game but have also allowed opponents to score consistently. Carolina put up 32 against Detroit last Sunday.
Arizona has lost three straight, but the Cardinals have enough offensive talent to contribute in a game where Detroit should create plenty of scoring opportunities.
Backing an Over at 54.5 requires both offenses to participate, but this matchup has one of the strongest shootout profiles of the week.
Pick: Over 54.5
Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons Pick
Lamar Jackson's ankle injury has completely changed this matchup.
Baltimore was favored on the early line, but Atlanta is now laying approximately three points with Jackson missing practice. If Jackson cannot play, Tyler Huntley would be expected to handle the offense.
Meanwhile, Atlanta has scored 80 points over its last two games since Michael Penix Jr. returned to the starting lineup. Bijan Robinson has become one of the league's hottest running backs during that stretch.
The Falcons are playing their best football of the season at exactly the wrong time for an injured Baltimore roster.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3
Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Pick
Week 5 concludes Monday night with Buffalo visiting the Rams.
Los Angeles is favored by a field goal, but Buffalo getting +3 is one of the more intriguing underdog numbers on the slate. The Bills lost their first game of the season against New England last week, but Josh Allen remains capable of turning any close game in Buffalo's direction.
The Rams have the offensive talent to test Buffalo's defense, and home field makes Los Angeles a reasonable favorite. Still, this projects as a game that should remain competitive into the fourth quarter.
Getting a full field goal with Allen is preferable to laying it against him.
Pick: Buffalo Bills +3
NFL Week 5 Best Bets
The full Week 5 slate offers several appealing numbers, but five wagers stand above the rest.
Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville deserves to be favored, but the market has moved more than a touchdown from the earliest number. Philadelphia still has enough veteran talent to remain competitive.
Tennessee Titans +7.5 vs Houston Texans: Houston has moved from a short favorite to beyond the key number of seven despite being 0-4. In a game with a total below 40, getting 7.5 is particularly valuable.
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 vs New England Patriots: New England's win over Buffalo has boosted the Patriots' market rating, but Las Vegas has been competitive enough to take the hook above a field goal.
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Under 45.5: Chicago is protecting a backup-quarterback offense, while Green Bay has been involved in increasingly low-scoring games. The side has moved significantly, but the Under still fits both teams' preferred game scripts.
Buffalo Bills +3 vs Los Angeles Rams: Buffalo is coming off a loss, but getting a full field goal with Josh Allen in a matchup projected to stay competitive provides one of the week's strongest Monday night numbers.
NFL Week 5 Picks Summary
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 vs Dallas Cowboys
- Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Indianapolis Colts +2.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Minnesota Vikings -2.5 vs New Orleans Saints
- Cleveland Browns +1.5 vs New York Jets
- Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins Under 42.5
- Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 vs New England Patriots
- New York Giants +3.5 vs Washington Commanders
- Tennessee Titans +7.5 vs Houston Texans
- Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Under 45.5
- Denver Broncos -3.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers
- San Francisco 49ers +3 vs Seattle Seahawks
- Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals Over 54.5
- Atlanta Falcons -3 vs Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills +3 vs Los Angeles Rams
Week 5 has already produced several major line moves, and more changes are possible as final injury reports are released. Bettors should pay particular attention to Philadelphia-Jacksonville, Baltimore-Atlanta and Buffalo-Los Angeles before locking in a wager.
Shopping for the best available number matters every week, but it becomes especially important when a spread is sitting directly on three or seven.