NY Giants vs. New England Patriots, Picks and Prediction, Monday, Dec. 1, 2025
We have a Super Bowl XLVI rematch where New York shocked New England 21-17 in this Giants vs. Patriots prediction. The Giants (2-10) are playing for pride in this one after losing six straight games. The Pats (10-2) are on the opposite end of the spectrum, having won nine straight and looking to position themselves for home-field advantage in the playoffs. These teams last met in November of 2023, with the Giants winning a rock fight 10-7 as a 4.5-point dog. The Pats are a 7.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 46.5 in what will be a cold Monday night in North Piscataway, NJ at 8pmET. Check out more Free NFL picks, NBA, and college football on Stat Salt.
New coach, same result
Mike Kafka took over as head coach on November 10 after Brian Daboll was fired, and the Giants proceeded to lose to Green Bay at home 27-20, covering the 7.4 and fell at Detroit 34-27, covering the 14. So the good news is that they are 2-0 ATS, but the bad news is 0-2 SU under Kafka. They did that with veteran Jameis Winston at quarterback, with rookie Jaxson Dart out with a concussion. Dart has thrown for 10 TD passes and three picks before he missed the last two games.
The Giants struggled defensively against the Lions, allowing 237 yards rushing, including 219 from Jahmyr Gibbs. Winston was very Jameis-like, completing 18 of 36 for 3665 yards and two TDs, but also had a pick. Wan'Dale Robinson had nine catches for 156 yards and one TD to lead the Big Blue. He was limited by an ankle injury this week in practice but is not listed on the injury report.
New York is averaging 124.5 yards per game rushing (11th) and 224 yards passing (14th). With Cam Skattebo (410yds, 5 TDs) out for the season with a leg injury, Devin Singletary (238 yds) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (398yds) has attempted to fill in. The addition of Dart (317 yds, 7 TDs) will help the ground game.
The defense is allowing 385 yards per game (29th) and 157.2 rushing yards (32nd). Brian Burns has had a great year with 13 sacks, but hasn't had a whole lot of help.
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Key Injuries for Giants:
- LB Demetrius Flanagan-Fowles (shoulder) is out.
- OT Evan Neal (hamstring) was placed on the IR.
- DE Kayvon Thiboeaux (shouleder) is questionable.
Maye leads red-hot Patriots
Drake Maye has it all. A potential MVP in his second season, a strong running game behind him, and a very good defense. The only question is who they will do in the postseason after facing the 32nd schedule in the league. The Pats opened with a 20-13 loss at home against Las Vegas and also fell to Pittsburgh at home (21-14) on Sept. 21. Since then, they've won nine straight games and while most of the teams are not making the playoffs, they did shock Buffalo (23-20) on the road on Oct. 5, beat Tampa Bay (28-23) on the road and won at Cincinnati last week 26-20.
The win over the Bengals wasn't pretty, but it gives New England an impressive 6-0 road record. Maye has been sacked 37 times this season and a big concern for New England will be protecting him without rookie starting left tackle Will Campbell (knee), who is out this week.
Maye leads the NFL with 3,130 passing yards with 21 TDs, six INTs, and a 71% completion percentage. Maye also has 307 rushing yards and two TDs, to assist Treyveon Henderson, who leads with 558 yards and five TDs (4.7 ypc). The Pats are a Mike Vrabel team, which means they are defensive-minded, holding teams to just 87.7 yards per game (2nd) and 18.8 points per game (6th). They are just 21st in rushing yards per game (112.4ypg), but it seems like they are able to get the big first down late in the game, whether it's running or short passes to get the first down.
Key Injuries for Patriots
- C Jared Wilson (ankle) is out.
- LB Harold Landry (knee) is questionable. Has 6.5 sacks.
- OT Will Campbell (knee) was placed on the IR.
Key Betting Trends for Giants vs. Patriots
Giants
- 5-2 ATS last 7 games.
- 6-1 ATS last 7 vs. Patriots
Patriots
- 8-4 Under last 12 vs. Giants
- 7-2 ATS last 9 games.
Spread Pick for Giants vs. Patriots
Giants vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick
- New England 28-NY Giants 24
- NY Giants +7.5 (4 units)
When you see 10-2 against 0-2, you expect a mismatch. But this is the NFL, where the teams are pretty close in terms of talent level. Dart is an athletic quarterback like Maye and could make a big jump next season. He'll electrify the Giants' offense, which wasn't that bad under Winston. New York has also faced the 6th-toughest schedule in the NFL. They've faced Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago, San Francisco, Philadelphia twice, and Denver on the road in the last seven games and covered five of them. Maye will be running at his life at times with Campbell out and Burns pressuring him. The Giants will still play hard for Kafka on Monday night and cover the game.
- Over 46.5 (4 units)
The Giants have gone over in six of their last seven games. They've scored 20 or more points in seven straight games, but also have allowed an average of 29.5 points per game. Their run defense is a worry here against Henderson and Maye running the ball. The Patriots have gone over in four of their last six games and three of their last four home games.
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