Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Prediction for Thursday August 27, 2026

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Orchard Park to face the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, August 27, 2026, in the preseason finale for both teams. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium. Pittsburgh enters at 1-1 in the preseason, while Buffalo is a perfect 2-0. Current markets have Buffalo around a 2.5-to-3-point favorite, with the total sitting at 35.5. The Bills are roughly -146 to -152 on the moneyline, depending on the book. Be ready for the NFL action with our free NFL picks.

The biggest handicapping issue in any preseason finale is playing time rather than the regular-season talent of the two rosters. Buffalo has announced that some starters will see action Thursday, but Josh Allen will not play. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has roster and depth-chart decisions of its own to make after a rough second preseason game.

Steelers Need an Offensive Rebound

Pittsburgh's preseason has produced two dramatically different performances. The Steelers opened with a convincing 28-9 victory over Green Bay, but their offense disappeared in the second game, when the New York Jets shut them out 17-0 at Acrisure Stadium. Pittsburgh therefore comes into the finale at 1-1 and looking for considerably better execution from its offensive depth.

The quarterback play against New York was particularly concerning. With Aaron Rodgers resting, Will Howard threw two interceptions, while Drew Allar completed 11 of 23 passes for 110 yards. The Steelers generated only 14 first downs and averaged 3.6 yards per offensive play. That's a major step backward from the opener, when the young quarterbacks helped Pittsburgh produce 28 points.

There is at least an incentive angle working in Pittsburgh's favor. Several players remain in meaningful roster battles, and rookie first-round offensive tackle Max Iheanachor is preparing to make his preseason debut after returning from an upper-body injury. Pittsburgh should have plenty of players treating this as much more than an exhibition, but the question is whether that urgency translates into offensive production against a Buffalo team whose reserves have been excellent.

Bills Depth Has Been the Difference

Buffalo has done exactly what bettors want to see from a preseason favorite: its depth has produced results. The Bills improved to 2-0 by hammering Cleveland 31-7 on Saturday, giving them their second consecutive preseason victory.

Buffalo's quarterback depth was particularly effective against Cleveland. Kyle Allen completed 10 of 12 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown, while Shane Buechele also threw a touchdown pass. The running game provided production as well, and Buffalo's defense generated multiple interceptions. Those are important preseason indicators because Thursday's result will depend much more heavily on Buffalo's second- and third-team personnel than it will on the players expected to determine the Bills' regular-season fortunes.

Head coach Joe Brady has indicated that some starters will play against Pittsburgh, although Josh Allen will sit. That actually makes Buffalo fairly attractive from a preseason handicapping perspective. The Bills don't need their franchise quarterback to justify being favored here because the backup units have already demonstrated that they can move the football and create turnovers.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Prediction

Pick: Buffalo Bills -2.5

Buffalo -2.5 is my side pick. The gap between these teams' recent reserve-level performances is difficult to ignore. Pittsburgh is coming off a game in which it scored zero points, averaged only 3.6 yards per play and threw two interceptions, while Buffalo just scored 31 against Cleveland and received efficient quarterback play from its backups. Buffalo also gets the game at Highmark Stadium and will use at least some starters. Preseason spreads can be volatile, but at anything below a field goal, I prefer Buffalo. Take the Bills -2.5.

Pick: Under 35.5

Under 35.5 is my total pick. Buffalo's 31-point showing against Cleveland makes the over tempting, but Pittsburgh's offensive situation creates a significant obstacle. The Steelers just failed to score against New York, and neither side has much reason to expose important offensive personnel or expand the playbook in the final exhibition. Buffalo can control this game without it becoming a shootout, and a score in the neighborhood of 20-13 or 23-10 would cash both selections. Take Under 35.5.

Final Picks: Buffalo Bills -2.5 and Under 35.5.