Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 21, 2025
The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) are looking to recover from their 31-17 home loss on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers struggled in the game as he completed 18-of-33 passes for 203 yards with one passing touchdown and two interceptions.
The New England Patriots (1-1) are looking to build upon their 33-27 road win on Sunday over the Miami Dolphins. Quarterback Drake Maye was able to step up as he completed 19-of-23 passes for 230 yards with a pair of passing touchdowns as well as 10 rushing attempts for 31 yards (3.1 yards per carry) with a rushing touchdown.
Kickoff clarity: NFL predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers at the New England Patriots in plain terms.
Steelers Looking to Step Up
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a rough 31-17 road loss in Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers struggled a bit, but the offense was led by running back Jaylen Warren. Robinson finished with 14 rushes for 48 yards (3.4 yards per carry) but also added four receptions for 86 yards (21.5 yards per catch) but did not find the end zone. The offense struggled as they only recorded 13 total first downs.
The defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers struggled as they allowed the Seattle Seahawks to record 31 points on 395 total yards (278 passing, 117 rushing). Seattle was able to run the ball well as they averaged 4.0 yards per attempt. The defense was able to force a pair of takeaways and the special teams allowed a touchdown.
The special teams let the Steelers down against Seattle as kicker Jason Myers' kick early in the fourth quarter, hit returner Kaleb Johnson off his shoulder, and settled in the end zone. Seattle recovered the ball for a live touchdown. Head coach Mike Tomlin hinted that Johnson will be replaced at least temporarily.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are stepping up offensively so far this season as their 25.5 points per game is eighth in the NFL. The defense was has been absolutely terrible as they are 29th in football with 31.5 points per game against.
Injury Report for Pittsburgh
- Safety DeShon Elliott: Knee (Questionable)
- Cornerback Joey Porter Jr: Hamstring (Questionable)
- Defensive tackle Derrick Harmon: Knee (Questionable)
- Offensive guard Max Scharping: Knee (OUT)
- Linebacker Alex Highsmith: Ankle (OUT)
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Patriots Hoping to Show Some Improvement
The New England Patriots were able to secure a 33-27 road win in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for Mike Vrabel’s first win as the team’s coach. The offense was able to score 33 points on 333 total yards (211 passing, 122 rushing) and scoring 10 points in the fourth quarter helped the team come from behind to win. Quarterback Drake Maye had a good showing, as we highlighted earlier. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson led the rushing and receiving stats as he had 11 rushes for 54 yards (4.9 yards per carry) while also adding five grabs for 88 yards (17.6 yards per reception), but could not find the end zone. The one major issue was the fact that New England committed 12 penalties on the day.
The defense of the Patriots struggled as they allowed 27 points on 358 total yards (297 passing, 61 rushing). Miami was able to run the football well against them as they averaged 4.1 yards per attempt. However, the Dolphins couldn’t keep drives alive as the Pats held them to 3-for-10 on third downs and 0-for-2 on fourth. New England was getting pressure throughout the game as they had five sacks, six tackles for loss, five quarterback hits, an interception and a touchdown from the defense/special teams.
The Patriots have been a middling offensive team right now as they are 14th in the league with 23.0 points per game scored. However, the defense has been a bit weaker as they are tied for 19th in the sport with 23.5 points per game allowed. The pass defense could be getting stronger if CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring), who is back at practice for the first time in nearly two months and is listed as questionable.
Injury Report for New England
- Offensive tackle Morgan Moses: Foot (Questionable)
- Linebacker Harold Landry III: Foot (Questionable)
- Cornerback Carlton Davis III: Achilles (Questionable)
- Linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson: Hamstring (Questionable)
- Cornerback Christian Gonzalez: Hamstring (Questionable)
- Linebacker Marte Mapu: Neck (Questionable)
- Fullback Jack Westover: Hamstring (Questionable)
- Center Jared Wilson: Thigh (Questionable)
Steelers at Patriots Pick
Spread Pick for Steelers vs. Patriots
- Pittsburgh Steelers -130 (4 units)
This game is expected to be close, but this is a chance for Aaron Rodgers to overcome an obstacle he has had as he is 0-2 at Gillette Stadium in his career, despite being 3-3 against New England in his career. This is also a chance for the wide receiver group for Pittsburgh to show up as DK Metcalf (seven catches for 103 yards and a touchdown) and Calvin Austin III (five catches for 92 yards and a touchdown) are not getting as many looks as anticipated to start the season. New England has some significant talent on the injury report, but Drake Maye needs to find expecting father Stefon Diggs more as he has 10 catches for 89 yards, but no touchdowns. All in all, go with the Pittsburgh Steelers to win on the road.
Over/Under Pick for Steelers vs. Patriots
- Over 44.5 (5 units)
This Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed 30+ points to the New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks to begin the season, so it is difficult to assume they will just step up out of the blue. Both teams are struggling to get stops on third downs as the Steelers are 13-of-28 (46.43%) against third downs while the Patriots are giving up 9-of-23 (39.13%) on third downs against them. Go with over 44.5 total points to be scored here.
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