Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Line Movement for December 28
Tampa Bay vs Miami picks take center stage in Week 17 as the Buccaneers head to South Florida to face the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon. With postseason urgency clearly tilted toward Tampa Bay, this matchup has drawn betting attention all week, and it stands out among the slate of NFL picks because of line movement, injury context, and contrasting team trajectories.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread: Miami +5.5
- Total: Under 46.5
- Projected Final Score: Tampa Bay 23, Miami 20
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Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Tampa Bay vs Miami
- Tampa Bay has lost six of its last seven games after opening the season 6-2.
- Miami is coming off back-to-back blowout losses, including a 45-21 defeat last week.
- The Buccaneers are 2-6 against the spread on the road this season.
- Miami is 4-3 against the spread at home despite overall inconsistency.
- Recent totals movement shows early money leaning toward the under in the mid-40s.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | -5.5 (-105) | Over 46.5 (-110) |
| Miami | +5.5 (-115) | Under 46.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Tampa Bay | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | -2.5 | +2.5 |
| 12/21 | -4.5 | +4.5 |
| 12/22 | -5.5 | +5.5 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | 46 | 46 |
| 12/21 | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| 12/22 | 46.5 | 46.5 |
Tampa Bay vs Miami Game Preview and Analysis
This matchup comes down to stability versus desperation. Tampa Bay still has a path forward, but the Buccaneers have not looked like a trustworthy road favorite for much of the season. Even with steadier quarterback play, their recent inability to close games has been costly.
Miami’s season has unraveled in different ways, but playing at home with reduced expectations changes the dynamic. The Dolphins are likely to lean heavily on their ground game and short passing concepts, especially with the offense built around De’Von Achane’s explosiveness rather than sustained downfield efficiency.
From a handicap perspective, the number feels inflated given Tampa Bay’s road profile. Laying more than five points away from home with a team that is 2-6 ATS on the road is not a comfortable position, particularly against a home underdog that can shorten the game.
Key Injuries and Notes (TB vs MIA)
- Tampa Bay: Anthony Nelson questionable, Zyon McCollum on injured reserve, Calijah Kancey on injured reserve.
- Miami: Minkah Fitzpatrick questionable, Isaiah Johnson questionable, Dee Eskridge questionable.
- Miami continues to operate with limited offensive line depth.
Final Score Prediction
Tampa Bay 23, Miami 20
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Miami +5.5
- Total Pick: Under 46.5
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