Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills, Odds, Preview, Picks and Prediction, Sunday, November 16, 2025
We have a Week 11 clash as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers battle it out with the Buffalo Bills in our Bucs vs. Bills prediction. Kickoff clarity: NFL predictions for Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills.
Buccaneers Looking to Bounce Back
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking to recover from their 28-23 home loss on Sunday against the New England Patriots in Week 10. Quarterback Baker Mayfield stepped up as he completed 28-of-43 passes for 273 yards with three touchdown passes.
As a team, the Bucs are ranked 14th in the NFL in passing yards, averaging 228.6 per game. Tampa Bay’s total offense, which averages 328.4 yards per game, will need to find ways to get the ball into the skill position players’ hands despite injuries to Bucky Irvin and WR Mike Evans. The rushing game, contributing 99.8 yards per game (25th), might see an increased emphasis on handing the ball off. Tampa Bay’s offense has shown the ability to still score, ranking 11th with 24.4 points per game.
The Bucs’ defense, allowing an average of 22.9 points per game, places them in 14th place in the league thus far. The pass defense is struggling to limit big plays as Tampa Bay is allowing 10.3 yards per completion, which is 24th in the sport.
Injury Report for Tampa Bay
- Outside linebacker Haason Reddick: Ankle is out.
- Nose tackle Vita Vea: Back (Questionable)
- Outside linebacker Anthony Nelson: Illness (Questionable)
- RB Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) is out.
- WR Mike Evans (collarbone) is out until late December.
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Bills Looking to Shake Off Last Week
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a brutal 30-13 road loss on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. They've now lost htree of their last five games.
Buffalo’s offense has been led by quarterback Josh Allen has been doing an outstanding job as he has completed 185 of 263 (70.3%) of his passes for 2,139 yards with 15 passing touchdowns to five interceptions, while also running 59 times for 311 yards (5.3 yards per carry) with seven rushing touchdowns. Running back James Cook leads the team with 920 rushing yards (2nd in the NFL) and also has seven TDs.
Their offense is scoring 27.6 points per game (sixth), with passing accounting for 231.2 yards (12th). The rushing game was where the team excelled, as they had recorded 153.2 rushing yards (first).
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Defensively, Buffalo has been able to limit the scoring as they are 11th with 21.9 points per game, with their rush defense being one of the worst in the 21st century as they give up 5.5 yards per carry. If they can do a mediocre job against the run, they will be in a lot better position going forward.
Injury Report for Buffalo
- Defensive back Cam Lewis: Calf (Questionable)
- Defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis: Shoulder is out
- Tight end Dalton Kincaid: Hamstring (Questionable)
- Defensive tackle T.J. Sanders: Knee is out
- Defensive tackle Ed Oliver: Biceps is out for the regular season.
- Safety Taylor Rapp: Knee (OUT)
- Defensive end Michael Hoecht: Achilles (OUT)
- Safety Damar Hamlin: Pectoral (OUT)
- NT T.J. Sanders (knee) was placed on the IR.
- Cornerback Taron Jonson (groin) is questionable.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills Pick
Spread Pick for Buccaneers vs. Bills
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (4 units)
The Bucs are dealing with some offensive injuries with a handful of key skill position players on the injury report, but they still have been able to win games and continue to look like a legitimate contender in the NFC. The lack of being able to stop the run for Buffalo makes things extremely difficult to slow teams down. The Buccaneers are 4-1 on the road outright this season as they are clicking, so go with Tampa Bay to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Buccaneers vs. Bills
- Under 47.5 (5 units)
These teams are going to be able to have extended drives, and that is going to make fewer total possessions, leading to fewer opportunities for points. These teams are doing a respectable job defensively on third downs as the Buccaneers are allowing 45-of-117 (38.46%) on third downs, while the Bills are giving up 39-of-104 (37.5%) in those opportunities. Josh Allen is turning the ball over more with a 4:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two weeks, which shows he is not doing too well. Only throwing for six touchdown passes in his last four games makes things a bit difficult for the offense to take that next step. All in all, go with under 47.5 total points in this game as the better bet here.
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