Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 8 2026

Tampa Bay heads to Chicago on Sunday night for an 8:20 PM ET game against the Bears at Soldier Field. NBC and Peacock have the coverage. Chicago is favored by six points, and the total is 47.5. The weather looks pretty good for November. Temperatures should be around 50 degrees at kickoff, with west winds near 8 to 10 mph, gusts around 14, and no rain expected. That’s not going to bother either team much. The Bears have won three straight, and Tampa Bay has won two. Chicago is the better team, but six points is a pretty decent number to lay against a Buccaneers club that’s been running the football extremely well. Get ready for the football action with our free NFL picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Have Found Their Running Game

Tampa Bay is 3-5, including 2-1 on the road, after winning its last two games against Carolina and Atlanta. The Buccaneers have been much better lately, and the biggest difference has been the running game. They’ve rushed for a combined 584 yards in those two victories. That’s an incredible number, and it’s given the offense a way to win without depending on the passing game.

The Buccaneers are averaging 22.3 points per game and allowing 18.9. Defensively, they’ve been pretty good, especially against the run. Tampa Bay is allowing only about 80 rushing yards per game, one of the best numbers in football. The offense has been generating roughly 300 yards per game, but almost 169 of those have come on the ground. That’s a pretty unusual split. The Buccaneers aren’t throwing the ball particularly well, but they’ve been controlling games with their rushing attack.

Bucky Irving has rushed for 728 yards and five touchdowns, and that’s why Tampa Bay has been able to keep the offense moving. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 679 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in his limited passing opportunities. Chris Godwin has 27 catches for 243 yards. Yaya Diaby is out with a knee injury, while Emeka Egbuka is questionable with a foot problem. Those injuries matter, but the Buccaneers have been finding ways to win without needing much from the passing game.

Chicago Bears Have Been Playing Some Good Football

Chicago is 6-2, including 3-1 at home, after beating Seattle 34-17 on Monday night. That’s three straight wins for the Bears, and they’ve been playing well on both sides of the ball. Chicago has been one of the better offensive teams in the league, and the defense has been doing enough to keep opponents from hanging around.

The Bears are averaging 26.8 points and about 388 yards per game while allowing 20 points. Chicago has been much more balanced offensively than Tampa Bay, throwing for around 237 yards and rushing for 151 per game. The Bears have also been good at controlling possession, keeping the ball for more than 35 minutes a game. That’s an advantage against most teams, although Tampa Bay has been doing a good job running the ball and shortening games itself.

Caleb Williams has thrown for 1,267 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. D’Andre Swift has rushed for 545 yards and ten touchdowns, while Luther Burden III has 42 catches for 547 yards. Those are important numbers because Chicago has multiple ways to move the football. Kyle Monangai, Malik Muhammad, and Tyrique Stevenson are questionable, while Zavier Scott is on injured reserve. The Bears have enough healthy offensive talent to keep moving the ball, but Tampa Bay’s run defense will be a good test.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-108)

I’m taking Tampa Bay and the six points. Chicago is the better team, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears win. They’ve been playing good football, and Williams has been doing a better job taking care of the ball. But Tampa Bay is allowing fewer than 19 points per game, and the Buccaneers have been running for almost 170 yards a night. That’s a pretty good way to keep a game close. Chicago’s run defense has been strong, so Tampa Bay might not get another 250-yard rushing performance. But six points feels like a little too much against a team that’s been playing better lately.

Total Pick: Under 47.5 (-110)

Give me the under 47.5. Both teams have been running the ball well, and both defenses are allowing around 20 points or fewer per game. That usually means longer drives and fewer possessions. Chicago can score, but Tampa Bay has been excellent against the run, and I think that slows the Bears down a little. The danger is Chicago hitting a couple of big plays through the air and forcing Tampa Bay to abandon its running game. But I think the Buccaneers keep this close and make it a physical game. Something around 24-20 sounds right.

Final Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-108) | Under 47.5 (-110)