Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 13 2026

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio, to face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, September 13, in one of Week 1's most intriguing quarterback matchups. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on FOX. Cincinnati is currently favored by approximately four points, with the total sitting at 50.5 — one of the higher numbers on the opening-week board. Baker Mayfield leads Tampa Bay against Joe Burrow and a Cincinnati offense with significant scoring potential. The NFL season is just starting and you can easily start off on the right foot with our free NFL picks.

Baker Mayfield Gives Tampa Bay a Chance as the Underdog

Baker Mayfield returns as Tampa Bay's starting quarterback after completing 343 of 543 passes for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season. He also remained dangerous outside the pocket, adding significant production as a runner. Tampa Bay finished only 8-9 in 2025, but Mayfield's presence gives the Buccaneers a proven quarterback capable of keeping pace when games become offensively aggressive.

Mayfield's supporting cast gives Tampa Bay legitimate potential through the air. Chris Godwin Jr. remains an important veteran target, and Tampa Bay's offense has enough experience to attack a Cincinnati defense that cannot simply sell out to pressure the quarterback.

Tampa Bay also enters 2026 with some interesting young defensive talent. Rueben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter are expected to have substantial roles, with both potentially opening the season in the starting lineup. The Buccaneers need that youth to translate quickly because Cincinnati presents one of the more difficult passing-game assignments in the AFC.

Mayfield's ability to extend plays could be particularly valuable. He was sacked 36 times last season but still produced 3,693 passing yards, and his willingness to attack downfield gives Tampa Bay a chance to answer if Cincinnati starts quickly.

Joe Burrow Returns With Cincinnati's Explosive Receiving Corps

Joe Burrow remains the foundation of Cincinnati's offense. Injuries limited him to eight games in 2025, but he was excellent when available, completing 66.8% of his passes for 1,809 yards, 17 touchdowns and only five interceptions. His 100.7 passer rating demonstrated that when healthy, Burrow remained one of the league's most efficient quarterbacks.

The Bengals also retain the receiving combination of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, although both have dealt with issues during the buildup to Week 1. Head coach Zac Taylor indicated that the Bengals were managing their workloads while keeping their focus on being ready for Tampa Bay. Their availability is one of the most important variables surrounding this game.

Cincinnati's offense has a much higher ceiling with Burrow healthy from the beginning of the season. In 2024, his last full 17-game campaign, he threw for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns. Even though those numbers shouldn't simply be projected onto 2026, they demonstrate what this passing attack can become when Burrow and his primary receivers stay available.

The Bengals also get the benefit of opening at Paycor Stadium. With a healthy Burrow and his primary weapons available, Cincinnati should be capable of putting immediate pressure on Tampa Bay to score into the upper 20s.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals Picks and Prediction

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4

Cincinnati is the more likely straight-up winner, but Tampa Bay +4 is the better betting position. Mayfield threw for 3,693 yards and 26 touchdowns last season and gives the Buccaneers enough quarterback play to remain competitive if Cincinnati's offense starts quickly. Burrow is clearly capable of taking over this game, but he played only eight games last season, and Chase and Higgins have both had their workloads managed entering the opener. Getting four points with an experienced quarterback in a matchup carrying a total above 50 provides enough value to take the underdog. Tampa Bay +4 is the play.

Pick: Over 50.5

This is a high number, but Over 50.5 is still the preferred total. Burrow threw 17 touchdown passes in only eight appearances last season, while Mayfield produced 26 across 17 games. Cincinnati has the receiving personnel to challenge Tampa Bay downfield, and the Buccaneers have enough offensive firepower to force the Bengals to remain aggressive rather than protecting a modest lead. A score in the range of 30-27 or 31-24 is entirely plausible. With two established quarterbacks and both offenses possessing explosive-play potential, take Over 50.5.

Final Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 and Over 50.5