Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Picks and Prediction - Sunday, September 28, 2025
Use Code SSWC A pair of winless AFC South sides clash in the Lone Star State and we’re breaking things down, plus providing you with our Titans vs. Texans predictions for Sunday. The Titans (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) got smoked on their home turf last weekend, losing to Indianapolis, 41-20, as +6 underdogs. The Texans (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) couldn’t get their offense moving in a 17-10 loss at Jacksonville when they were +1.5 underdogs. With the first win of the season on the line for one of these teams, kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 EST from NRG Stadium. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our free NFL Picks!
Titans still not close
The growing pains continue for the youthful Titans who have lost three games by an average of 14.3 points per game. Last weekend, the defense allowed the Colts to put points on the board in all four quarters as they yielded 365 yards and 22 first downs. Tennessee’s offense was able to get 21 first downs but had just 282 yards and they went 5-14 on third downs.
Tennessee comes into this week sporting the fifth-worst scoring offense with 17 points per game. Their 222.3 yards per game is the second-worst mark in the league and their 133.7 passing yards per game is dead last. Cam Ward went 23-39 for a season-high 219 yards, a touchdown and he threw his first career interception on Sunday. The rookie QB has completed 54.5% of his passes thus far for 506 yards and 2 TDs. He has been sacked 15 times already. Calvin Ridley has been targeted 21 times but caught only eight passes for 111 yards. The Titans' running game averaged 3.8 yards per carry and 88.7 yards per game, 28th in the league. Tony Pollard, who leads the team with 197 rushing yards, found the end zone for the first time this season against the Colts, but ran for a season-low 45 yards.
The Titans rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 31.3 points per game. The 373.7 total yards per game allowed is the sixth-worst mark in the league, and their run defense ranks 29th with an average of 145.7 rushing yards per game going against them. Three players had six tackles in Sunday’s loss and on the year. Cody Barton leads the team with 20 tackles and has one of the team’s three interceptions.
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Injury report (with Thursday’s practice status)
- T JC Latham (hip) DNP
- LB Dorian Mausi (back) DNP
- RB Kalel Mullings (ankle) DNP
- WR Bryce Olive (knee) DNP
- QB Cam Ward (ankle/calf) limited
- S Kevin Winston Jr. (hamstring) is limited
- G Kevin Zeitler (bicep) limited
Texans in striking distance
Unlike Tennessee, the Texans have lost their three games by less than a score each time and have a losing margin of just 4.3 points per game. At Jacksonville last weekend, they scored just three points through the first three quarters. The offense had 271 total yards and 13 first downs in the loss. Houston’s defense gave up 291 yards and 17 first downs.
Houston possessed the lowest scoring offense through three games, averaging 12.7 points per game. They average 267.3 yards per game, 29th in the league, and are one of 13 teams averaging under 100 rushing yards, with 95 ypg. Nick Chubb leads the team with 141 rushing yards, but has had fewer yards each week since getting 60 in the season opener. The Texans are passing for 172.3 yards per game, 26th in the league. C.J. Stroud has a 64% completion rate and 599 passing yards with 2 TDs and 3 INTs. He’s also averaging 6.1 rushing yards on 13 carries. The opposition has gotten to Stroud eight times for a sack. Nico Collins has been targeted 25 times and leads the team with 14 catches, 181 yards, and two TDs.
The Houston scoring defense ranks sixth in the league, allowing just 17 points per game. They are giving up 315.7 total yards and 206.7 passing yards per game. Their defensive front has helped the team to nine sacks, but the defense has only one interception thus far. Will Anderson Jr. has 12 tackles, 10 of them solo, and he is tied for eighth in the league with three sacks, recording one in each game so far. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair leads the team with 25 tackles.
Injury report (with Wednesday’s practice status)
- WR Nico Collins (knee) limited
- CB Derek Stingley Jr. (oblique) DNP
- RB Jakob Johnson (hamstring) DNP
- C Jake Andrews (ankle) limited
- OT Tytus Howard (illness) DNP
Titans vs. Texas Picks
Spread Pick for Titans vs. Texans
- Houston -7.5 (5 units)
These two met late in the season last year, splitting their two games with the visiting team winning SU and ATS each time. Unlike the Titans, the Texans have actually been close in all three of their games this season. Collins may be limited a bit as he deals with a knee injury, but Stroud has found 11 different receivers this season, so he has his options. Ward popped up on the injury report this week with some ankle and calf issues, limiting his practice availability. I would guess it could limit his efforts here as well if he’s unable to evade pressure. The right side of the offensive line is also banged up, so Ward could be in for a long day in the backfield. There are just too many questions still for the Titans and they haven’t done much to address them. All three of their losses have been by eight points or more. Houston is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Titans
Take the Texans to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Titans vs. Texans
- Under 38.5 (5 units)
This matchup features two of the bottom five scoring offenses in the league going toe-to-toe. The Titans high-water mark this season is 20 points and it’s just 19 for the Texans. Neither side has shown anything to think that they can break through here. Tennessee is banged up on the offensive side of the ball and Ward is still very much learning on the job. He’s dealing with lower-body injuries, the right side of his line is dealing with injuries, and the Texans' defensive front has been the team’s best unit thus far. That formula equals the Titans once again scoring very little. Houston has had their chances but has shot itself in the foot plenty via turnovers and penalties. Regardless, they still aren’t getting into position to make it matter, even if they were able to score without folly. They’ve scored 10 points or less twice already. Between the two teams, the under is 4-2 this season and also 7-3 in the last ten games between the teams.
Take the under.
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