Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 28, 2025
Use Code SSWC An NFC matchup goes down on Sunday, September 28, as the Washington Commanders take on the Atlanta Falcons at 1 p.m. ET. Washington (2-1) is coming off a 41-24 home win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3. Atlanta (1-2), meanwhile, is coming off a 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers on the road in Week 3.
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Commanders Rout Raiders
Washington is coming off a 41-24 win over the Raiders in Week 3 in a game that Marcus Mariota started, due to Jayden Daniels being injured. Mariota finished the game going 15-of-21 for 201 yards and a touchdown, while he also rushed for 40 yards and another touchdown. Washington's offense was led by the ground game as the Commanders rushed for three touchdowns and 201 yards in the win.
The Commanders this season are averaging 26.6 points per game, while averaging 157.3 rushing yards per game and 213.3 passing yards per game. Defensively, Washington is allowing just 19 points per game, while opponents are averaging 249.6 passing yards and 100.6 rushing yards per game.
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Washington is expected to be without star wide receiver Terry McLaurin (leg), while Daniels is questionable due to a knee sprain as Mariota could get his second-straight start.
Falcons Remaining With Penix Jr. At Quarterback
Atlanta is coming off a 30-0 blowout road loss to the Panthers on Sunday. In the loss, Michael Penix Jr. went 18-for-36 for 172 yards and two interceptions, and was benched late in the game. Yet, despite his struggles, Falcons coach Raheem Morris made it clear that Penix Jr. will remain the starter. The Falcons responded to being shut out for the first time in four years by firing wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard and moving OC Zac Robinson to the sidelines, after calling plays from the coaches' box.
But the key is the performance of Pennix Jr., who is completing 58.6% of his passes for 605 yards with just one TD and two picks. RB Bijan Robinson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has amassed 239 yards on the ground.
“I mean, he’s a big-time competitor,” Morris said. “So, I’m actually looking forward to it. You never want to say you’re happy it happened, but I can’t wait to see the response. I’m actually more encouraged with Michael Penix’s behavior today and his movement today for this franchise and for our team than ever."
The Falcons have struggled offensively out of the gate, as Atlanta is averaging 14 points per game. Atlanta is also averaging 211.3 passing yards and 139.3 rushing yards per game. The Falcons' defense, meanwhile, is giving up 19.6 points per game, while opponents are rushing for 96.3 yards per game and throwing for 148.6 passing yards per game, as the defense has been a bright spot for the team.
Key injuries: TE Kyle Pitts (toe), DE James Pearce Jr. (groin). CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring)
Commanders vs. Falcons Pick
- Commanders ML -130 (4 units)
Even if Daniels doesn't play - which seems likely at this point - taking Washington on the money line is the way to go here. Head coach Dan Quinn is also making a return to Atlanta, where he coached six seasons and was fired in 2020. Mariota played well in Week 3 as the Commanders' offense should continue to have success. Washington will continue to put an emphasis on the ground game, which should be able to carry the offense. Atlanta, meanwhile, has struggled offensively with turnovers, while Washington's defense has been solid against the run. The Commanders should be able to limit Bijan Robinson, while the defense will force a turnover or two to put them in good field position to get the road win here.
Take the Commanders ML.
Over/Under Pick for Commanders vs. Falcons
- Under 44.5 -105 (4 units)
The under is also a good spot here as both teams will commit to the run, which will burn out the clock and limit the amount of possessions both teams get. Meanwhile, both defenses have been solid this season and don't give up a ton of big plays or points, which helps the under, Pennix Jr. has been subpar thus far and the Falcons can only do so much with their ground game against teams expecting them to run. You can say the same thing about Washington with McClaurin out, but Mariota does give them another option as a runner. This should be a quick game with a lot of running. Atlanta is 3-0 in hitting the under this season, while Washington is 2-1, so look for those trends to continue here.
Take the under.
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