Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 20 2026

The Washington Commanders visit the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 PM ET. Both NFC East teams enter Week 2 at 0-1. Washington lost a competitive 24-22 game at Philadelphia, while Dallas suffered a 28-20 home loss to the New York Giants. The Cowboys are currently 4.5-point home favorites, with Washington at +4.5 and the total set at 51.5 points. Be ready for all the NFL action with our free NFL picks.

Washington Was Competitive Against Philadelphia

Washington didn't get the result it wanted in Week 1, but a 24-22 road loss at Philadelphia is hardly a disastrous beginning. The Commanders stayed within one possession against a strong divisional opponent and now receive another opportunity to earn their first win against an NFC East rival.

The most encouraging aspect is that Washington remained competitive for four quarters. That matters when evaluating a 4.5-point underdog because the Commanders don't necessarily need to win this game to cash a ticket.

Washington also gets a Dallas defense that struggled in Week 1. The Cowboys allowed 28 points and permitted a 134.2 opposing passer rating. If those defensive problems continue, Washington should have enough opportunities to remain within striking distance.

Dallas Is Under Immediate Pressure at Home

Dallas' 28-20 loss to the Giants was one of the more disappointing Week 1 results. The Cowboys were at home and favored, yet they allowed New York to generate enough offense to win by eight.

The Cowboys now remain home and again receive significant respect from oddsmakers. Dallas is favored by 4.5 despite Washington losing by only two points at Philadelphia. That tells us the market still views Dallas as the better team, but it also creates an appealing number for the underdog.

Dallas needs a much better defensive performance. Allowing a 134.2 passer rating is particularly concerning entering another divisional game. If Washington consistently generates efficient passing opportunities, the Cowboys may once again need their offense to win a higher-scoring game.

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Picks and Prediction

Pick: Washington Commanders +4.5

Take the Washington Commanders +4.5. Washington lost by only two points on the road against Philadelphia, while Dallas lost by eight at home against the Giants. Yet the Cowboys are being asked to cover more than a field goal. Dallas' Week 1 defensive performance is concerning enough that I prefer taking the points with Washington. The Commanders also have a legitimate opportunity to win outright.

Pick: Over 51.5

Take the Over 51.5. Dallas allowed 28 points in Week 1, while Washington produced 22 against Philadelphia. The Cowboys should be capable of generating more than the 20 they scored against New York, but Washington also has an appealing matchup against a defense that struggled badly in its opener. A projected final around Dallas 28, Washington 27 produces 55 combined points while giving us the Commanders cover.

Final Picks: Washington Commanders +4.5 and Over 51.5