Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys, Picks and Prediction, Sunday, October 19, 2025
It’s an NFC East clash in Dallas on Sunday, so check in with our Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions and settle in for some heated action. Washington (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost a tight one against Chicago on Monday night, 25-24, as -5.5 favorites at home. Dallas (2-3-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) fell at Carolina, 30-17, as -3 favorites last Sunday. This matchup kicks off at 4:15 EST from AT&T Stadium and for more Sunday action, try our free NFL Picks!
Commanders riding the waves
Since the very start of the season, the Commanders have alternated a win with a loss to this point. Against Chicago, they had an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter before being sunk by a last-second field goal. The offense turned the ball over three times and had only 329 yards in the loss. That included a Jayden Daniels fumble at Chicago 40 to set up a game-winning field goal for the Bears.
This year, Washington’s offense is averaging 26.3 points per game, the seventh-best mark in the NFL. They are gaining 345.7 total yards, with a heavy emphasis on the run, where they get 151 yards per game, third best in the league. Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the team with 344 yards on the ground, with 4 TDs. The Commanders’ pass attack ranks 25th in the league, averaging 194.7 yards a game. Jayden Daniels has thrown for 875 yards, seven TDs, one interception, and he’s been sacked 11 times. Deebo Samuel has been his top target with 34 catches for 315 yards and 3 TDs, but the Washington WR is dealing with a heel injury that has his status in jeopardy for this game, and top receiver Terry McLaurin is out again with a quad injury. Expect Washington to attempt to run the ball a lot more this week, assuming they can hold onto the ball.
On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 21 points each week, 13th in the NFL. Washington is allowing opponents 356.8 total yards per game, the eighth-worst mark in the league. Against the run, they are allowing 121.7 a game, and versus the pass, 235.2 yards per game to go with their 18 sacks and two interceptions. Linebacker Bobby Wagner leads the team and is second in the league with 65 tackles, complimented by two sacks. Dorance Armstrong is fifth in the league with a team-high 5.5 sacks.
Injury report
- DE Dorance Armstrong (hamstring) DNP
- RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (calf) DNP
- WR Deebo Samuel (heel) DNP
- WR Terry McLaurin (quad) DNP
- G Sam Cosmi (knee) full
- QB Jayden Daniels (knee) full
- CB Jonathan Jones (hamstring) full
No place like home for Cowboys
With a wealth of road games stifling the start to the Cowboys' season, they return home, where they are 1-0-1 SU on the year. In their second straight road game last weekend, they went into the fourth quarter with a four-point lead before being outscored, 10-3. The Dallas offense had only 292 yards and 15 first downs in the loss.
This season, the Cowboys’ scoring offense is averaging 29.7 points per game, third best in the league, and their 387.5 total yards per game are tops in the NFL. They are second in the league in passing with 270.3 yards per game. Dak Prescott is also second in the league with 1,617 passing yards and third with 13 touchdowns. He’s been intercepted three times and sacked seven times. His top target has been George Pickens, who is fourth in the league with 525 receiving yards on only 32 catches, six for touchdowns. The Dallas running game produces 117.2 yards per game, led by Javonte Williams who has 476 yards and 5 TDs on 92 carries. They also get a lift as star WR CeeDee Lamb from an ankle injury that has kept him out since Week 3.
The Dallas defense has been a major issue, allowing 30.7 points per game, the second-worst mark in the league. Opponents are beating them for 411.7 total yards per game, the most allowed by any team. They have the worst pass defense, allowing 269.5 yards a week, while opponents’ running games are earning 142.2 yards per game against them. They’ve only recorded 11 sacks and two interceptions. Donovan Wilson is second on the team with 35 tackles and three pass deflections, and he is responsible for both of the team’s interceptions. Kenneth Murray Jr. has a team-high 42 tackles.
Injury report
- S Donovan Wilson (elbow/knee) limited
- T Tyler Smith (knee) limited
- WR Jonathan Mingo (knee) limited
- CB Trevon Diggs (knee/concussion) out
- DE James Houston (knee) full
- CB Trevon Diggs (knee) full
- CB Caelen Carson (knee) full
- WR KaVontae Turpin (foot) limited
- LB Jack Sanborn (concussion) limited
- WR CeeDee Lamb (ankle) limited
- DE Marshawn Kneeland (ankle) limited
- G Trevor Keegan (neck) limited
- T Ajani Cornelius (knee) limited
- G Tyler Booker (ankle) limited
- S Juanyeh Thomas (migraine)
Commanders vs. Cowboys Picks
Spread Pick for Commanders vs. Cowboys
- Cowboys +1.5 (5 units)
Last season, they split the two games against each other, with the road team winning each time. Neither side has played up to their expectations at this stage of the season, so this should be a decent test to see where both sides stand moving forward. Daniels’ mobility has been slightly hampered by his knee injury, though it hasn’t stopped him from running with the ball. His best bet in this game would be to air it out versus a bad passing defense, but his top target, Samuel, was not a practice participant this week due to his heel issues, and without him, the passing game is a different beast for Washington. The Cowboys’ defense should be able to contain things under those conditions. On the other end, the Dallas offense has not only been playing well, but they’ve also been very consistent. Prescott has been excellent thus far, and now a veteran presence, he should be able to put his time in a position to win. Getting Lamb back is going to be a big lift for an already great passing offense. Dallas is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games against the Commanders.
Take the Cowboys getting a little bit at home.
Over/Under Pick for Commanders vs. Cowboys
- Over 55.5 (5 units)
In two meetings last season, the teams averaged a combined 51 points per game. This year’s meeting features two of the top seven scoring offenses in the league and one of the worst two scoring defenses. The Commanders have scored 27 points or more in three of their last four games, so their offense is getting in position to score a lot of late. Dallas put up at least 27 points in four of their last five games, hitting 40 points in two of them. Prescott has that offense moving upfield and quickly. They’ve only punted the ball six times this season. It’s the first meeting between the bitter rivals, so I’m looking for them to go all out offensively. The over is 3-1 in the last four meetings.
Take the over.