Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Picks for Sunday, October 5th, 2025
We have a highly anticipated cross-conference showdown on Sunday afternoon, as the Washington Commanders (2-2) make the trip out west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (3-1). We’ve got you covered with our Commanders vs. Chargers prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NFL Betting Picks!
Commanders Slide to 2-2
The Washington Commanders are coming off of a run to the NFC Championship in 2024, so the expectations were high entering 2025. However, the Commanders are off to a modest 2-2 start, which is partially due to enduring injury issues. Chiefly, QB Jayden Daniels (knee) has missed two games, but he is expected to play on Sunday. Marcus Mariota did a fair job filling in his shoes. The Commanders have beaten the Giants (21-6) and the Raiders (41-24), while dropping road games to the Packers (27-18) and the Falcons (34-27), most recently. From a sports betting perspective, Washington is 2-2 ATS and they’ve split the over/under 2-2.
Due to playing in only two games, the aforementioned Daniels is off to a slow start. He has 433 passing yards on a 59.7% completion rate, adding three touchdowns and no picks. Newcomer WR Deebo Samuel is the top receiving target, catching 22 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the lead back, gaining 172 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries (5.9 YPC). Number one receiver Terry McLaurin missed last week's game with a quad injury and is likely to miss his second straight game.
- Offensively, the Commanders are scoring 26.8 points per game (eighth), while averaging 339.0 yards per week (12th).
- Defensively, they are 18th in the NFL this year, conceding 22.8 points per game. They’re allowing 356.0 yards per contest, which is 24th. They allowed 34 points last week to an Atlanta team that was shut out by Carolina in their previous game.
- Injury Report: Washington has a lengthy injury report, including all of the following players who didn’t participate in practice on Wednesday: DE Dorance Armstrong (illness), LB Nick Bellore (quad), WR Noah Brown (groin/knee), TE Zach Ertz (rest), LB Ale Kaho (concussion), WR Terry McLaurin (quad), OLB Von Miller (rest), CB Mike Sainristil (knee), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (heel), OT Laremy Tunsil (rest).
Chargers Drop Road Game to the G-Men
Coach Jim Harbaugh and his Los Angeles Chargers made a push to the AFC wild card round last year, but were promptly dismissed by the Texans (32-12) in the opening round. The Bolts have regrouped and fortified their roster, and it has paid dividends as they’re off to a 3-1 start in 2025. The Chargers opened the year with wins over the Chiefs (27-21), Raiders (20-9), and Broncos (23-20), but suffered their first loss last weekend against the Giants (21-18) on the road. Los Angeles is 3-1 ATS and 3-1 to the under. They’re still a slim +110 favorite to win the AFC West.
It’s none other than quarterback Justin Herbert leading the way offensively this season. The signal caller has racked up 1,063 passing yards on a 63.8% completion percentage, adding seven touchdowns and three picks. WR Quentin Johnston is finally finding his footing in the NFL, as he’s the top receiver with 337 yards and four touchdowns on 22 receptions. Rookie running back Omarion Hampton leads the rushing attack with 270 yards and two touchdowns on 54 carries (5.0 YPC).
- Los Angeles’ offense has been mediocre this season, ranking 20th in scoring (22.0 PPG), while putting up 356.3 yards per game (eighth).
- On the defensive side, the Chargers are fourth this year, allowing 17.8 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re third, conceding 270.0 yards per contest.
- Injury Report: The Bolts only had two non-participants at Thursday’s practice, including T Joe Alt (ankle) and WR Derius Davis (knee).
Commanders vs. Chargers Pick
Spread Pick for Commanders vs. Chargers
- Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 (-105) (5 units)
Both of these teams are pretty banged-up at the moment. With that being said, I think the Chargers are better equipped to overcome the injuries and prevail in this contest. They have injuries to OT Joe Alt (D: ankle) and G Mekhi Becton (Q: concussion), but basically all of their skilled players are at full health. Being that the Commanders are a mid-tier group defensively, it bodes well for the Bolts to overcome the issues and still move the ball.
On the flip side, Washington will get Jayden Daniels back from a sprained knee, but he draws a tough matchup against a top-five Los Angeles defense. He’ll be without WR Terry McLaurin (quad), and his other top target, WR Deebo Samuel, is questionable with a heel injury. The Chargers are allowing just 270.0 yards per game (third) and 158.8 passing yards per contest (fifth). They should have no issue shutting down Washington’s injury-plagued receiving group, which in turn will allow them to stack the box and focus on shutting down the run. This is simply a bad matchup for the Commanders. I like the Chargers to bounce back and cover this number.
Over/Under Pick for Commanders vs. Chargers
- Under 47.5 (-115) (5 units)
The Chargers are 3-1 to the under this season, and that’s a trend that I’m expecting to continue on Sunday afternoon. I laid out the game plan above, and I believe that the defensive mastermind duo of Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter should have no issue slowing down the Commanders in this spot. They’ve been excellent this season, allowing only 17.8 points per game (fourth).
On the other side of things, I think the Chargers will put up some points, but I’m not convinced that they’ll go nuclear. They’ll potentially be without a couple of their best offensive linemen, and this is already a group that’s had issues blocking this season. If the Commanders can find some early-down success defensively, they should be able to limit the Bolts enough to keep this game under the number. Ultimately, this total is just a few points too high, and I’m going to lock in the under.