Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins, Picks, Odds, Preview and Prediction, Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025
Use Code SSWC Hola and Bueno Dia! Check out this Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction as these teams meet from Madrid on Sunday morning, East Coast time at 9:30amET. Both teams have had disappointing starts at 3-7, though Miami has won two of their last three games. The weather is expected to be mild with temperatures in the mid-50s in Madrid, Spain. These teams last met in 2023, with the Dolphins winning easily 45-15. In that game, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 280 yards and two TDs, while Tyreek Hill caught five passes for 157 yards and two TDs. If you need more winners, check out Stat Salt and our free NFL predictions.
Quick Picks and Prediction on Commanders vs. Dolphins
If you need a quick peek, check the pick and total.
- Miami 28 Washington 17
- Miami -2.5
- Over 47.5
Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins Odds and Line Movement
Check out the opening odds and line movement from the Commanders and Dolphins below.
Opening Odds for Commanders vs. Dolphins
- Line opened at Miami -1.5 (-115)
- The total opened at 47
- The ML opened at Washington +116/Miami -136
(odds from FanDuel)
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Commanders vs. Fins Line Movement
- The spread moved from Miami (-115) ot Miami -2.5 (-112)
- The total went from 47.0 to 47.5.
- ML Washington moved from +116 to +126; Miami jumped from -136 to -148
(total from Caesars Sportsbook)
Key Matchups Commanders vs. Dolphins
Daniels will miss another game
Marcus Mariota takes over the offense again as Washington has now lost five straight games, including a 44-22 defeat at home against Detroit last week. Mariota got the start at quarterback with Jayden Daniels out with another injury (left elbow) suffered in their 38-14 loss at Seattle. The Washington defense was destroyed as they allowed 226 yards on the ground and produced just 93 yards rushing. Head coach Dan Quinn, a former defensive coordinator at Dallas and Seattle, removed DC Joe Whitt Jr. from the defensive play-calling and has taken over.
The move can't hurt a defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed per game (394.6ypg) and 31st against the pass (134.4ypg). It also doesn't help matters that the team is plagued by injuries on defense, with LB Frankie Luvu and S Quan Martin missing time in practice. CB Trey Amos (fibula) is out and DT Daron Payne was suspended for punching WR Amon-Ra St. Brown last week. Starting CB Marshon Lattimore (knee) is out for the season.
Mariota has been fair this season with 852 passing yards, six TDs and four INTs. He also has 144 rushing yards and one TD. Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt leads the team with 470 rushing yards and four TDs. They are also missing the top wide receiver, Terry McLaurin, who has played in just four games due to a quad injury. He will not play this week.
Sellers no more
Miami was supposed to sell half their team before the trade deadline and wound up dealing Jaelin Phillips to the Eagles and firing GM Chris Grier two weeks ago. They didn't need either last week when they shocked Buffalo 30-13 at home as an 8-point favorite. They sacked Josh Allen three times and forced three turnovers. OLB Chop Robinson (concussion) missed the game, but could help out a pass rush led by Bradley Chubb, who has five sacks and one forced fumble
The key is the performance of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who struggled against the Bills with two INTs (2 TDs) and 173 yards passing. He was assisted by speedy RB De'Von Archane, who had 174 yards rushing and two TDs. He now has 780 rushing yards and five TDs, along with 49 catches for 325 yards and four scores.
Tagovailoa is completing 68.2% of his passes for 1,952 yards with 17 TDs and 13 INTs. The Fins' issues are on both sides of the ball. They are 25th against the run (139.7ypg) and, despite having Archane, are averaging just 107.2 (23rd) yards per game rushing.
Betting Trends for Washington vs. Miami
Washington:
- 0-5 ATS last 5 games.
- 0-4-1 ATS last 5 vs. Miami.
Miami:
- 6-3 Over last 9
- 9-2 Over last 11 at home
- 4-1 Under last 5 vs. Washington
Key Injuries and Analysis for Commanders vs. Dolphins
Washington:
- QB Jayden Daiels (elbow) is out. Starting QB with 1,184 yards passing and 8 TDs. 262 yards rushing
- CB Trey Amos (fibula) is out. Starting corner.
- Starting DT Daron Payne (suspension) is out.
- Starting CB Marshon Lattimore (knee) is out for the season.
Miami :
- LB Chop Robinson (concussion) is questionable. Has one sack.
- OLB Bradley Chubb (foot) is questionable. Was limited on Friday. Leader in sacks with five.
- OT Austin Jackson (toe) is doubtful.
- C Aaron Brewer (foot/ankle) is questionable.
- CB Rasul Douglas (foot/ankle) did not practice. Starter. Has two sacks and five passes defensed.
- S Ashtyn Davis (quad) is questionable. Starter. Has 26 tackles and 2 TFLs.
Commanders vs. Dolphins ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
Check out my analysis of the pick and total below in this matchup from Spain, where Marcus Mariota faces Tua Tagovailoa.
Washington vs. Miami Spread
- Miami -2.5 (5 units)
Total for Dolphins vs. Commanders
- Over 49.5 (4 units)
Commanders vs. Dolphins Final Score Prediction
- Miami 28-Washington 17
The Bradley Chubb injury just popped up as I was writing this, but I still like Miami here with so many injuries on the defensive side for Washington. Archane should have another huge game with Payne out due to the suspension and the Commanders' linebackers banged up. Washington should put up some points with injuries in the Miami secondary. Miami also struggles against the run, allowing 140 yards per game and Mariota can find some open lanes as a runner. Miami has some explosive players in Archane and Jaylen Waddle, who have 670 yards in receiving. They'll help the Fins get this one and put the score over the total.
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