Buffalo Sabres vs Pittsburgh Penguins Picks and Prediction - November 26, 2025
Use Code SSWC National Hockey League action on Wednesday evening, and we have a Buffalo Sabres vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction ready to rock and roll. The Sabres enter this contest off a 4-1 home win over the Hurricanes to move to 9-13 on the year. Pittsburgh checks in at 10-11 on the year and they are off a 3-2 OT loss to Seattle at home. Pittsburgh won two of the three meetings last year. Read on to see our Sabres vs Penguins prediction.
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Sabres Weather The Eye Of the Hurricane
Buffalo comes into this matchup at 9-9-4, riding momentum from a convincing 4-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on November 23. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who will get the start against Pittsburgh, was sharp with 29 saves, while Beck Malenstyn, Jack Quinn, and Tage Thompson all found the back of the net. Alex Tuch chipped in with a power-play goal, and Ryan McLeod added two assists as the Sabres knocked off one of the East’s top teams. That victory capped a strong homestand where Buffalo showed flashes of the offensive depth that has kept them competitive despite inconsistency earlier in the season.
The Sabres’ offense has been productive, ranking seventh in the NHL with 3.2 goals per game. Thompson leads with 12 goals and 21 points, while Tuch and Doan have chipped in balanced scoring. Rasmus Dahlin continues to drive play from the blue line with 16 points, and Bowen Byram has added offense from the back end as well. Buffalo’s power play has been middling at 17.9%, but their penalty kill has been elite, ranking first in the league at 87.7%. That special teams balance has helped them stay afloat even when their five-on-five play has been uneven.
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Defensively, Buffalo still has issues, allowing 3.4 goals per game and ranking near the bottom in shots against at 31.5 per contest. Luukkonen has been steadier than Alex Lyon, posting a 2.67 GAA, and his start against Pittsburgh gives Buffalo a chance to build on recent defensive improvements. If the Sabres can continue to get scoring from multiple lines while leaning on their top-ranked penalty kill, they’ll be in position to push the Penguins in a tight divisional battle.
Penguins Surprises By Seattle At Home
Pittsburgh sits at 10-6-5 after a 3-2 overtime loss to the Seattle Kraken on November 22. Sidney Crosby scored his 13th goal and added an assist, becoming just the sixth player in NHL history to record 500 multipoint games. Evgeni Malkin also scored on the power play, but the Penguins couldn’t hold the lead, as Matty Beniers tied it in the third before Brandon Montour won it in overtime. Sergei Murashov made 18 saves in the loss, and the Penguins dropped their fifth game in six outings, continuing a rough stretch after a hot start.
Offensively, Pittsburgh has leaned on its stars, with Crosby at 23 points and Malkin at 24 points through 21 games. Bryan Rust and Anthony Mantha have provided secondary scoring, while Erik Karlsson has chipped in 13 points from the blue line. The Penguins’ power play has been lethal, ranking first in the NHL at 32%, and remains their biggest weapon. Their faceoff numbers are solid at 49.8%, giving them possession advantages, but they’ve struggled to consistently convert at even strength.
Defensively, Pittsburgh has been strong overall, allowing just 2.6 goals per game, ranking fourth in the league. Tristan Jarry, who will start against Buffalo, has been reliable with a 2.60 GAA and five wins. The Penguins’ penalty kill is also top-five at 85.2%, giving them balance on special teams. Still, their recent skid highlights lapses in execution, particularly late in games. Against Buffalo, Pittsburgh will need Jarry to stabilize things in net and their stars to carry the offense. If they can avoid costly turnovers and maintain discipline, they’ll have the edge, but the Sabres’ recent surge makes this matchup far from straightforward.
Buffalo Sabres vs Pittsburgh Penguins Pick
Sabres vs Penguins Moneyline Pick
Pittsburgh -117 (4 Units)
Pittsburgh looks like the right side here, especially with Tristan Jarry back in net and the Penguins’ defensive structure holding strong. They rank fourth in the NHL in goals against at just 2.6 per game, and their penalty kill sits top‑five at 85.2%, giving them the balance to neutralize Buffalo’s attack. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin continue to drive the offense, combining for nearly 50 points, while Bryan Rust and Anthony Mantha have chipped in secondary scoring. With the league’s best power play at 32%, Pittsburgh has the special teams edge, and Jarry’s consistency makes them tough to crack in a divisional matchup.
Buffalo has shown flashes, but their inconsistency and defensive lapses are hard to ignore. The Sabres allow 3.4 goals per game and rank dead last in faceoff percentage at 43.3%, which means Pittsburgh should control possession and dictate pace. Ukko‑Pekka Luukkonen has been solid, but he’ll be tested by a Penguins team that thrives on puck movement and finishing around the net. With Crosby still producing at an elite level and Malkin orchestrating the power play, Pittsburgh has the depth and structure to exploit Buffalo’s weaknesses. At plus money or near even odds, backing the Penguins feels like the sharper play.
Sabres vs Penguins Over/Under Pick
- Over 6.5 (4 Units)
The Over 6.5 makes sense here because both Buffalo and Pittsburgh bring enough offensive firepower and special teams efficiency to push this game past seven goals. The Sabres average 3.2 goals per game with Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Jack Quinn all capable of scoring in bunches, while their defense still allows 3.4 goals per contest, creating plenty of chances for opponents. On the other side, the Penguins have Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin driving a power play that leads the NHL at 32%, and they’ve consistently converted in high‑scoring affairs. With Buffalo’s penalty kill ranked first but their five‑on‑five defense shaky, and Pittsburgh’s offense clicking despite recent losses, this matchup sets up for a fast pace and enough combined scoring to clear the 6.5 total.
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