Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Prediction for Tuesday September 29 2026
The Montreal Canadiens visit the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, for the opening game of the 2026-27 regular season. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. Montreal enters after an impressive 48-24-10 season that ended in the Eastern Conference Final, while Toronto went 32-36-14 and missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs. DraftKings has Toronto at -115 on the moneyline and Montreal at -105. The Canadiens are -245 at +1.5 on the puck line, while Toronto -1.5 is +200. The total is 6.5, with Over 6.5 at +100 and Under 6.5 at -120. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more NHL predictions throughout the season.
Canadiens Attempt to Build on Breakout Season
Montreal took a major step last season, finishing 48-24-10 and advancing all the way to the Eastern Conference Final. The Canadiens now enter 2026-27 with considerably higher expectations after their young core proved it could translate regular-season improvement into postseason success.
The biggest question is whether Montreal can continue getting enough production beyond its top scoring group. That issue became more important during last season’s playoff run, but the Canadiens enter the year with a more stable foundation than they possessed twelve months ago.
Goaltending also gives Montreal reason for confidence after its younger options gained valuable NHL and playoff experience. The Canadiens no longer enter games against traditional Atlantic Division powers simply hoping to hang around; last season’s 48 victories changed the standard.
Maple Leafs Start Over After Major Changes
Toronto enters Opening Night after one of the most significant offseasons in recent franchise history. The Maple Leafs finished only 32-36-14 last season and responded by making substantial changes throughout the organization and roster.
The new-look Leafs possess considerably more uncertainty than Montreal. Toronto added a veteran Stanley Cup-winning goaltender and the first overall selection from the 2026 draft while also reshaping its forward depth. The upside is obvious, but NHL.com’s season preview specifically identifies developing chemistry quickly as Toronto’s biggest early challenge.
That makes Opening Night particularly interesting. Toronto has enough high-end talent to make last year’s record largely irrelevant once the new group gels, but asking the Leafs to immediately outperform a Montreal club coming off 48 wins and a conference-final appearance may be aggressive.
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Prediction
Pick: Montreal Canadiens -105
Toronto may ultimately make one of the league’s biggest year-over-year improvements, but Montreal enters Opening Night as the more proven current team. The Canadiens won 16 more games than Toronto last season and reached the Eastern Conference Final, while the Maple Leafs are integrating a new coach, new goaltender and multiple significant additions. At essentially a pick’em price, there is little reason to pay for Toronto’s hypothetical improvement before seeing the rebuilt lineup perform in a regular-season game. Montreal -105 is the side.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+100)
This is one of the more appealing plus-money totals on the board. Montreal possesses a dangerous offensive core, while Toronto’s offseason focused heavily on adding talent and scoring depth. At the same time, neither club enters without questions defensively or in goal. Toronto may need time to establish its new structure, and Montreal showed last season that it can create offense against quality opponents. At even money, seven combined goals is a reasonable target in an emotionally charged season opener.
Final Picks: Montreal Canadiens -105 and Over 6.5 (+100)