Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction and Picks - December 6, 2025
National League Hockey action on Saturday evening, and we have a Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction ready to roll for you. Montreal comes in off a 3-2 Shootout win over the Jets at home to move to 14-12 on the year. Toronto comes in off a 5-1 road win over Carolina to improve to 13-14 on the year. These teams have split the first two meetings this year. Read on to see our Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction.
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Habs Grab Two Big Points Against The Jets
Montreal’s most recent game was a 3–2 shootout win over the Winnipeg Jets on December 3, where Cole Caufield buried the deciding goal after Juraj Slafkovsky and Oliver Kapanen scored in regulation. Jakub Dobes stopped 30 shots and all three shootout attempts, helping the Canadiens snap a two‑game skid.
The Canadiens have been one of the more dangerous offensive teams this season, averaging 3.3 goals per game despite ranking last in shots at 24.9 per game. Their efficiency comes from a lethal power play, converting at 26.4%, fourth‑best in the NHL. Nick Suzuki leads the team with 31 points, while Caufield has already scored 14 goals, and rookie Ivan Demidov has chipped in with 20 points. Montreal’s ability to capitalize on limited opportunities has kept them in the playoff mix, even when their shot volume lags behind other contenders.
Defensively, Montreal has struggled, allowing 3.5 goals per game, which ranks last in the league. Their penalty kill sits at 77.4%, and discipline has been an issue with 292 penalty minutes, fifth‑most in the NHL. Still, Dobes and Sam Montembeault have provided timely saves, and the Canadiens’ resilience has shown in close games, like the shootout win over Winnipeg. Against Toronto, their special teams could be the difference, as Montreal’s power play has been a weapon while the Leafs’ unit has lagged.
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Maple Leafs Rout The Hurricanes On The Road
Toronto’s most recent game was a 5–1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on December 4, where Bobby McMann scored twice and Joseph Woll made 23 saves. Auston Matthews, Scott Laughton, and Matthew Knies also found the net, giving the Leafs their third straight victory to close a six‑game road trip.
The Leafs have been potent offensively, averaging 3.5 goals per game, fourth in the NHL. William Nylander leads the team with 32 points, while John Tavares has chipped in 13 goals and 16 assists. Matthews, back from injury, has regained his scoring touch, and Toronto’s depth has shown with contributions from McMann and Dakota Joshua. Their faceoff dominance at 57%, second in the league, has fueled possession and allowed them to dictate pace. The one weak spot has been the power play, converting at just 14.7%, ranking 27th, which has left goals on the table.
Defensively, Toronto allows 3.4 goals per game, ranking near the bottom, and they’ve given up the most shots in the NHL at 31.3 per game. Woll has been sharp with a .927 save percentage, and the penalty kill has held steady at 81.8%, but lapses in coverage have hurt them against faster teams. At home, the Leafs will look to continue their recent surge, leaning on Woll’s consistency and their top‑line firepower. Against Montreal’s potent power play, discipline will be critical, but Toronto’s balanced scoring and recent momentum give them confidence heading into this rivalry clash.
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Pick
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Moneyline Pick
- Montreal +117 (5 Units)
Montreal as a small dog has real appeal because the Canadiens’ offense has been efficient all season, averaging 3.3 goals per game despite ranking last in shots. Their power play sits at 26.4%, fourth in the league, and that’s a major weapon against a Toronto team whose penalty kill is solid but not elite. Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki continue to drive the attack, and Montreal showed resilience in their last outing with a shootout win over Winnipeg. Toronto, meanwhile, is coming off a long road trip, and teams often struggle in that first game back at home — legs can be heavy, rhythm can be off, and the opponent benefits from catching them in that adjustment spot.
The Canadiens’ defensive numbers aren’t pretty, allowing 3.5 goals per game, but Toronto’s own defense has been shaky, giving up 3.4 goals per game and the most shots in the league at 31.3 per game. That opens the door for Montreal’s opportunistic offense to capitalize, especially if they get early power‑play chances. With Toronto’s power play sputtering at just 14.7%, Montreal’s ability to win special‑teams battles could tilt the ice. As a small underdog, the Habs have the right mix of scoring efficiency and situational edge to keep this rivalry tight and potentially steal it late, making them a live play in this spot.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Over/Under Pick
- Over 6.5 (4 Units)
The Over 6.5 feels like the right angle in this rivalry because both Montreal and Toronto bring offensive firepower but shaky defensive numbers. The Canadiens average 3.3 goals per game with a top‑five power play at 26.4%, while the Leafs sit fourth in the league at 3.5 goals per game and dominate faceoffs at 57%, fueling possession and scoring chances. On the flip side, Montreal allows 3.5 goals per game (worst in the NHL) and Toronto isn’t far behind at 3.4 goals against, while also giving up the most shots in the league (31.3 per game). With both teams capable of finishing and both defenses prone to lapses, this matchup has all the ingredients for a wide‑open, high‑scoring game that clears the 6.5 total.
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