New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Picks and Prediction for Thursday, October 9, 2025
Use Code SSWC PPG Paints Arena hosts a Metropolitan Division showdown when the Islanders visit the Penguins on Thursday at 8:00 p.m. ET. New York opens its season after an injury-plagued 2024-25. Pittsburgh is 1-0-0 after a 3–0 win against the New York Rangers, highlighted by Justin Brazeau’s two-goal debut and Arturs Silovs’ 25-save shutout. Skate to an edge with NHL picks for the New York Islanders vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Islanders and a Fresh Direction
Last season exposed plenty of issues on Long Island. The Islanders tied for 27th in goals per game (2.71) and finished 31st on the power play (12.6%). Expected goals at five-on-five (2.59/60, tied 16th) displayed the ability to create enough looks, but finishing them was the problem. Mathew Barzal must remain healthy for the Islanders to have success, and Bo Horvat must become a top points producer. The club added Jonathan Drouin to help with assists on the top line. Anders Lee, Kyle Palmieri, and the young talent Simon Holmstrom give the Islanders hope for a strong rebound.
Defensively, New York was 20th in goals against per game (3.13) and dead last on the penalty kill (72.2%). With Noah Dobson traded, rookie Matthew Schaefer will be the top defenseman by midseason. Adam Pelech remains the steadying presence at the back, while Scott Mayfield and Ryan Pulock need to make it harder for opponents to have open shots on goal.
Goaltending is an important piece of New York’s success. Ilya Sorokin is above average, but dipped a bit last season. Semyon Varlamov is out injured, while veteran David Rittich provides much-needed depth. If Sorokin is on his game, the Islanders can return to being a top-level defense, giving the offense time to gel.
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Injuries: Calum Ritchie (IR), Semyon Varlamov (IR), Jesse Nurmi (IR), Ethan Bear (IR), Daylan Kuefler (IR).
Penguins and a Clean Sheet Start
Pittsburgh blanked the Rangers 3–0 in the opener: Brazeau netted two (including an empty net goal), Blake Lizotte scored, and Silovs finished with a 25-save shutout. Evgeni Malkin recorded two assists, and the Penguins carried play early, then tightened up in front of the goal to protect the lead.
Personnel-wise, the top leaders on this team remain Sidney Crosby, Malkin, and Kris Letang, now in season 20 together, supplemented by new faces like Brazeau and Silovs. The immediate question is whether success with this personnel is sustainable through a long season or will opponents learn to adjust and pick apart Pittsburgh’s weaknesses. If Silovs holds form in goal, Pittsburgh’s hopes of making a deep run in the postseason in May look strong.
Injuries: Tanner Howe (IR), Rutger McGroarty (IR), Jack St. Ivany (IR), Kevin Hayes (IR), Joel Blomqvist (IR).
New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Pick
Money Line Pick for Islanders vs. Penguins
- Penguins (4 units)
The market favors the visitors, but Pittsburgh holds several advantages in this matchup. New York’s special teams lagged badly last season (31st PK, 31st-ranked PP) and now breaks in a completely new blue line without Noah Dobson. The Penguins used four lines in the opener, won key draws (Malkin’s faceoff win that resulted in Brazeau’s opening goal), and protected the goal well enough for Silovs to see everything. Add in Pittsburgh being at home and New York’s injuries—Varlamov still out, several forwards out, and the home side is the one with the better overall advantage. Pittsburgh has one game under its belt, while New York will be making its season debut; therefore, take the Penguins to win as a home underdog.
Over/Under Pick for Islanders vs. Penguins
- Under 5.5 (4 units)
Pittsburgh just opened with a 3–0 road shutout, controlling the game from the start, while the Islanders’ last season stats (2.71 GF/G, weak PP) indicated they are not likely to score often. New York, behind the play of Sorokin and heavy forechecking, will take time off the clock before each possession. Pittsburgh’s season opener against the Rangers was not played at a fast pace, and expect much of the same when the Pens host the Islanders. With early-season timing not at mid-season levels, expect to see missed passes from both making both re-start attacks while the clock keeps ticking. Under 5.5 is the play here when these two meet in the Steel City on Thursday.
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