New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Prediction for Saturday October 17, 2026
The New York Islanders will travel to Toronto, Ontario, Saturday night for an Eastern Conference matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. The game is scheduled to begin at 7 PM ET. New York will look to establish more consistency after experiencing an uneven start to the season, as they enter Saturday's matchup 3-3-1 on the year, having dropped 3 of the last 5 following a shootout loss to Ottawa last time out. Toronto returns to Scotiabank Arena Saturday night looking to get their season going in the right direction as they are 3-3-2 this year, having lost 3 of the last 4, including 2 in a row. Toronto is a -142 home favorite coming into Saturday. New York goes on the road as a +120 dog, and the total is set at 6.5. For more NHL news, see our NHL Picks.
New York hunts the road win
The New York Islanders offense has struggled this season, averaging just 2.86 goals on 25.6 shots per game this year. Defensively, New York has been better, allowing 2.29 goals on 25.9 shots, but they've given up 12 goals across their last three losses. Bo Horvat is the offensive leader this season for New York, having boasted 7 points and a team-high four goals. Matthew Schaefer and Matias Maccelli are both tied for second on the roster with 6 points each, and Schaefer is leading the team with six assists this season.
Semyon Varlamov had a shootout lapse in the net last game, giving up one goal on 19 shots to post a .947 save percentage before Ottawa won the game in the shootout. Matias Maccelli was the only life in the New York offense against Ottawa, scoring the lone goal of the game.
Key Injury Report for New York:
- Mathew Barzal (IR-NR) – Oct 20
- Alexander Romanov (Out) – Apr 8
Toronto tries to end the skid
The Toronto offense has been solid this season, averaging 3.5 goals on 27.9 shots per game. Defensively, Toronto has been shaky, allowing 3.38 goals on 30.4 shots, and they've given up 14 goals across their last three losses. Auston Matthews is leading the Toronto offense this season with 13 points, six goals, and seven assists. William Nylander is second on the roster with 12 points scored this season. Kirill Marchenko has added to the scoring with 9 points, and John Tavares has chipped in a fourth-best seven points through seven games.
Sergei Bobrovsky was terrible in the net for Toronto in their last outing, giving up five goals on 34 shots to post an .853 save percentage. Kirill Marchenko led the charge for the Toronto offense with three goals on three shots in just over 18.5 minutes. Auston Matthews added to the Toronto scoring with one goal in the game. John Tavares added two assists to lead the team, while four other Toronto players chipped in one assist each.
Key Injury Report for Toronto:
- John Tavares (Day-To-Day) – Oct 17
- Miles Wood (IR) – Oct 22
- Chris Tanev (IR) – Oct 22
- Dakota Joshua (IR-LT) – Oct 24
- Max Domin (IR-LT) – Nov 21
New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Prediction
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs -142
Toronto should have the offensive advantage Saturday night, particularly if Auston Matthews is able to find space against the Islanders' defensive coverage. Matthews remains one of the league's most dangerous goal scorers, and his ability to create opportunities from the faceoff circles could put considerable pressure on New York. William Nylander provides another scoring threat who can challenge defenders with his speed and puck-handling ability. The Islanders will attempt to slow the game down and rely on their defensive structure, but Toronto has enough talent to generate offense even when opponents limit opportunities in transition. New York will need a strong performance in goal and better puck management to keep the Maple Leafs from establishing momentum. Toronto's offensive firepower and home-ice advantage should ultimately be enough to secure the victory.
Pick: Over 6.5
Toronto's offensive approach could create an entertaining matchup against an Islanders team that has the ability to generate scoring chances of its own. The Maple Leafs should be aggressive in attacking New York's defensive zone, particularly when Matthews and Nylander are on the ice. However, that approach could also create opportunities for the Islanders to counterattack if Toronto turns the puck over or allows its defensemen to get caught too far forward. Bo Horvat gives New York a player capable of taking advantage of those situations. The Islanders may prefer a more controlled contest, but an early Toronto goal could force them to become more aggressive. With both teams capable of producing offense through their top lines, the over is the play.