NHL Picks for October 5, 2026

Monday's NHL schedule is small, but the four-game card still offers several very different betting situations. Tampa Bay and Dallas are substantial favorites whose moneyline prices are difficult to justify, Winnipeg is catching a large plus price on the second half of a back-to-back, and Boston has a confirmed goaltending advantage in a near pick'em against Ottawa. With the season still only days old, price discipline matters more than chasing early records.

The best bets below are tied to specific thresholds. If the market moves materially beyond those numbers, the value changes with it. Starting-goalie information also remains especially important this early in the season, when several teams are already dealing with injuries or unsettled crease situations.

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Pick

Philadelphia is still searching for its first victory after falling to 0-1-2 with Saturday's 3-2 overtime loss to Carolina. The performance was considerably better than the Flyers' 7-0 loss to Pittsburgh earlier in the week. Joseph Woll stopped 37 shots against the Hurricanes, while Owen Tippett and Matvei Michkov supplied the offense. Philadelphia still has a larger problem to solve, though: it has been outscored 13-4 through three games.

Tampa Bay responded to its opening loss by beating Washington 3-1 on Saturday. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 20 saves in his 600th NHL game, Jake Guentzel had a goal and an assist, and Brandon Hagel recorded two assists. The Lightning controlled the opening period and were much more disciplined defensively than they had been in their first game.

The Tampa Bay moneyline is priced around -200, which asks bettors to pay too much for a team only two games into its season. The puck line offers a better route. Philadelphia has already shown it can struggle to generate sustained offense, and Rasmus Ristolainen's hand injury adds another question to the Flyers' defensive situation. Tampa Bay has enough scoring depth to create separation without requiring bettors to lay an extreme moneyline.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 at +120 or better.

Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins Pick

Winnipeg has the most obvious scheduling disadvantage on Monday. The Jets won 3-2 in Detroit on Sunday and now travel directly to Pittsburgh. Kyle Connor scored twice on the power play, Cole Perfetti finished with a goal and two assists, and Stuart Skinner made 33 saves. Skinner will not be asked to handle both ends of the back-to-back. Clay Stevenson is confirmed to start Monday for Winnipeg.

Pittsburgh is 2-0 after opening with an 8-0 rout of Philadelphia and then surviving Montreal 6-5 in overtime. The second game revealed why laying a heavy price with the Penguins is uncomfortable. Pittsburgh led Montreal 5-1 before surrendering four unanswered goals, with Tommy Novak eventually rescuing the win in overtime.

The Penguins deserve to be favored. They are rested, at home and facing a backup goalie making his first start of the season. But the market has Pittsburgh around -170 or worse, while Winnipeg is available in the +145 to +150 range. That is a substantial adjustment for the rest disadvantage. Mark Scheifele, Connor and Perfetti give the Jets enough offensive quality to punish the same defensive lapses Montreal exploited.

Winnipeg's back-to-back and Stevenson start make this the most volatile play on the card, but the price compensates for those concerns. The Jets do not need to be the safer team to offer value as a sizeable underdog.

Pick: Winnipeg Jets moneyline at +145 or better.

Ottawa Senators vs Boston Bruins Pick

Ottawa opened its season with a 3-2 win in Toronto. Thomas Chabot, now the Senators' captain, had a goal and an assist, Stephen Halliday scored the third-period winner, and Linus Ullmark stopped 27 of 29 shots. Ottawa's post-Brady Tkachuk lineup still has plenty of offensive talent, including Tim Stutzle, Dylan Cozens, Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux.

The concern is the Senators' injury situation. Jake Sanderson aggravated an injury during the Toronto game, while Andre Burakovsky has been placed on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. Ottawa recalled defenseman Jorian Donovan as it manages the uncertainty on the blue line. Sanderson's availability is particularly important because Boston can pressure opponents through multiple forward combinations.

Boston enters 2-1 and has Jeremy Swayman confirmed in goal. Swayman is 2-0 with a 1.47 goals-against average, a .947 save percentage and a shutout. JJ Peterka has also made an immediate impact offensively, giving a Bruins attack led by David Pastrnak another dangerous finisher.

This is priced close to a coin flip, which makes Boston attractive at home. Ottawa has enough skill to win, and Ullmark's return to Boston would add another layer if he starts, but the Bruins have the confirmed goaltending foundation while the Senators are managing fresh defensive uncertainty.

Pick: Boston Bruins moneyline at +100 or better.

San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars Pick

San Jose is one of the early season's more entertaining surprises. The Sharks are 2-0 after overtime victories over Florida and Los Angeles. Macklin Celebrini has five assists through two games, while Igor Chernyshov had two goals and an assist, including the overtime winner, in Saturday's 5-4 victory over the Kings.

Dallas has experienced the opposite start. The Stars are 0-2, have scored only one goal and are 0-for-5 on the power play. They were shut out 4-0 by St. Louis before losing 2-1 in Nashville. Matt Duchene is sidelined, although Dallas still has enough established offensive talent with Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen that the scoring drought should eventually end.

The question is whether Monday becomes a breakout or a more conservative response from a team desperate to stabilize itself. Dallas is around -170 on the moneyline, an unattractive price for a team that has scored once. San Jose's plus price is tempting, but both Sharks victories have come in overtime and their first two games have been wide open.

The total provides the better angle. Dallas needs to reduce mistakes and establish its defensive structure rather than turn this into another high-event San Jose game. With the number at 6.5, a 4-2 result would still stay Under. The Stars can win without suddenly producing five or six goals themselves.

Pick: Under 6.5 goals at -125 or better.

NHL Best Bets for October 5, 2026

Monday's card is Tampa Bay -1.5 at +120 or better, Winnipeg moneyline at +145 or better, Boston moneyline at +100 or better, and San Jose-Dallas Under 6.5 at -125 or better.

The Winnipeg play carries the most obvious risk because the Jets are on a back-to-back with Clay Stevenson starting, but the plus price is what makes the wager viable. Boston offers the cleanest near-even-money setup with Swayman confirmed, while Tampa Bay's puck line avoids an inflated moneyline. In Dallas, the total is preferable to paying a premium for a Stars team still trying to solve its early offensive problems.