Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, October 23, 2025
Use Code SSWC It’s a rematch of the NBA Finals, so strap in, check out our Thunder vs. Pacers predictions and get ready to beat the books. Oklahoma City (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) escaped their season opener with a 125-124 double-overtime win against Houston as -6.5 favorites at home. This will be the season opener for Indiana (65-40 SU, 50-52-3 ATS in 2024-24), who are coming off of their first NBA Finals run in 25 years. This matchup will tip off at 7:30 EST from the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. No air balls here-only slam dunks with our NBA Picks!
Title defense underway for Thunder
In front of a grateful home crowd on Tuesday, the banner was unfurled, the team got their championship rings and the Thunder set forth on their first-ever title defense. They certainly had their hands full with a Rockets side looking to make major strides this season, and they needed to make a late comeback to force overtime, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hit two free throws with 2.3 seconds remaining.
Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the league with 32.7 points per game last season, had only five first-half points against Houston but would finish with 35, shooting 12-16 from the field and 10-14 from the line. He was also just 1-9 from beyond the arc. Chet Holmgren added 28 points and seven rebounds to the winning effort and Isaiah Hartenstein grabbed a team-high eight rebounds. Four bench players logged at least 13 minutes, and Alex Caruso put in 30 minutes of work, scoring eight points and adding three assists, two rebounds, two steals and a block.
The 125 points scored in the opener were right around their 120.5 points per game average from a year ago. The team shot 44.2% from the field on Tuesday, hit 13 threes, and went 20-25 from the charity stripe. Despite having two seven-footers, they were crushed on the glass by Houston, 52-38, but defensively, they were able to make up for it by forcing 22 turnovers out of the Rockets. They also had them shooting 44.3% from the field and 28.2% from three-point range. Oklahoma City has 12 steals and four blocked shots in game one.
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Team notes
- Jalen Williams missed the season opener on Tuesday as he recovers from wrist surgery.
- In 15 minutes off the bench, Ajay Mitchell shot 6-8 from the field, hit six threes and scored 16 points.
- Ousman Dieng, the 11th overall pick of the 2022 draft, was the team’s lone ‘DNP-Coach’s Decision’ versus Houton.
Pacers enter under duress
While last season’s run to the NBA Finals was exhilarating for the Pacers and their fandom, this season is going to look a whole lot different for the Eastern Conference champs. One win shy of their first NBA Championship, Indiana’s hopes were squashed in the wake of Tyrese Haliburton tearing his Achilles tendon in the first quarter of Game 7.
Indiana will now play the entire season without their best player, who provided 31 double-doubles, 18.6 points and 9.2 assists per game last season. On top of that, they saw center Myles Turner depart via free agency in the offseason. Former first-rounder Isaiah Jackson is slotted in as the team’s center this season, but at 6-foot-8, 205 pounds, they’ll lack a major presence in the paint. On the bright side, Pascal Siakam will have every chance to improve on his team-leading 20.2 points and 6.9 rebounds per game from last year. Bennedict Mathurin, third on the team with 16.1 points, will start at the shooting guard and Aaron Nesmith with slide into Haliburton’s spot as the swingman.
The Pacers were a team that averaged 117.4 points per game last season, seventh in the NBA. They shot 47% overall, hit 13.2 threes a night and had a 2.13 assist-to-turnover ratio, which was second best in the league. Their defense ranked 17th overall, allowing 115.1 points per game while teams shot 47.4% against them. Indiana averaged 8.5 steals and 5.5 blocks a game last season, which allowed them to coax 14.2 turnovers per game from foes.
Team notes
- Toppin was 16th in the league last season, shooting 52.9% from the field.
- T.J. McConnell, who has been one of the top bench scorers for the club over the last few years, will miss at least one month with a hamstring injury.
- Backup point guards Quenton Jackson (hamstring) and Kam Jones (back) are both out to start the season.
Thunder vs. Pacers Picks
Spread Pick for Thunder vs. Pacers
- Indiana +7.5 (5 units)
Including the championship series, these two teams met nine times last season, and each time a team won straight up, they also won against the spread. Williams remains sidelines for the Thunder with the wrist and his absence was noted on Tuesday night. OKC had a wakeup call in their opene,r and I am expecting them to have more of a full effort in this one. But without their swingman, they lacked continuity, and that doesn’t get replaced with more of an effort. Even though the Pacers are in a very tough spot this season, Siakam and Mathurin should be able to keep the team in this one long enough to make it worth your while. Indiana is 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five game at home against the Thunder.
Take the Pacers getting the points at home.
Over/Under Pick for OKC Thunder vs. Pacers
- Under 229.5 (5 units)
These two got defensive in the NBA Finals, averaging a combined 215.9 points per game. The Pacers have two of their top three scorers back from last season, but didn’t do anything in the offseason to address the departure of their second and fourth-best scorers not being around. Indiana was sixth in the league in pace last season, averaging 100.9 possessions per 48 minutes, but they were also 22nd in defensive possession length, per DunksandThrees.com, so opponents found that they could slow things down against them with their own offense. The Thunder scored 125 points on Tuesday but needed two overtimes to get there. In regulation, they scored only 104 points. Without Williams in the lineup, they were a touch slower. The under went 4-1 in the last five games between these two.
Take the under.
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