Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 25, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Ottawa Senators travel to Washington, D.C., to face the Capitals at Capital One Arena on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET, on ESPN+. Ottawa is 3-4-1 after a home win over Philadelphia, while Washington is 5-2-0 following a 4-1 victory against Seattle. Skate to an edge with NHL picks for the Ottawa Senators at the Washington Capitals. (written before Friday night's results).
Ottawa Senators Look to Build on Road Win
The Senators are 3-4-1, averaging 2.88 goals per game while allowing 4.25. Linus Ullmark has seen the most ice time between the pipes, posting a 3.41 goals-against average and an .867 save percentage through seven starts. Ottawa generates 30.0 shots per game but continues to struggle in preventing opponents from shooting and scoring on the power play, surrendering 26.1 shots while allowing 11 power-play goals with a 62.1 percent penalty kill success rate, one of the NHL’s lowest. The offense is led by Shane Pinto’s seven goals and one assist. Claude Giroux’s four assists, but the Senators need more production from the forwards on the second and third lines.
Defensively, the Senators have been inconsistent, as evidenced by 78 penalty minutes and a high goals-against rate. The coverage in the defensive zone has been a problem, especially without captain Brady Tkachuk (IR, expected back Dec. 13). Ottawa’s 21.4 percent power play has been respectable, converting six times, but the penalty kill has struggled to keep the puck out of the net. Ullmark’s ability in the net will be critical against a Capitals offense averaging 3.00 goals per game.
The Senators snapped a two-game slide Thursday with a 2-1 win over Philadelphia. Ullmark recovered from giving up an early goal to make 22 saves. Michael Amadio and Olle Lycksell provided the scoring, while Ottawa finished a four-game homestand 2-1-1. The win helped halt a stretch of defensive mistakes that included an 8-4 road loss in Buffalo and a 5-4 defeat against the Islanders.
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Injuries:
- Brady Tkachuk (LW) IR – out until Dec. 13
Washington Capitals Continue Strong Start at Home
Washington is 5-2-0, backed by one of the league’s best early goaltending tandems. Logan Thompson has been outstanding, going 4-1-0 with a 1.60 goals-against average and .927 save percentage. Backup Charlie Lindgren has also impressed with a .932 save mark. The Capitals have allowed only 1.86 goals per game while limiting opponents to 24.1 shots, ranking among the NHL’s early defensive leaders. Offensively, Tom Wilson leads the way with 10 points (4 goals, 6 assists), and Dylan Strome has been an effective playmaker with seven assists, with four on the power-play.
Washington’s offense generates 32.0 shots per contest and has scored four power-play goals at an 18.2 percent clip. Defensively, the group has been efficient but can improve its penalty kill, currently at 70.6 percent. The Capitals’ disciplined play and steady goaltending have led to their 3-2-0 home record.
The Capitals played well in a 4-1 win over Seattle. Nic Dowd, Ryan Leonard, Jakob Chychrun, and Wilson each scored, while Thompson stopped 23 of 24 shots. Washington rebounded from a 4-3 loss to Vancouver by starting fast and controlling possession early. The team is 3-1 in its current home stand and has posted four straight games with a power-play goal. Wilson continues to pace the attack, while Leonard has emerged as a key contributor with goals in back-to-back outings.
Injuries:
- Rasmus Sandin (D) Out – expected return Oct. 25
- Pierre-Luc Dubois (LW) IR – expected return Oct. 24
Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals Pick
Spread Pick for Senators vs. Capitals
- Washington Capitals -1.5 (4 Units)
Washington’s play on attack and goaltending gives it the edge. The Capitals have allowed two or fewer goals in five of seven games, while Ottawa’s defense remains among the league’s weakest. With Thompson posting excellent numbers and Washington’s offense finding scoring from Leonard and Chychrun, the home side has the clear advantage. Ottawa’s road struggles (1-2-0) and high penalty total mean the Capitals can cover the puck line by scoring up a goal or two on the power play.
Over/Under Pick for Senators vs. Capitals
- Â Under 6.0 (4 Units)
The under is solid given Washington’s defensive form and goaltending stats. The Capitals’ last five games have averaged just 4.4 total goals, and Thompson’s 1.60 GAA should keep Ottawa’s offense limited. Ottawa’s own attack has cooled to 2.5 goals per game over its past four. Expect Washington to dictate tempo behind strong defensive zone play, keeping the total under the closing line.
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