Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction and Picks for Thursday, October 9th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Atlantic Division foes get their season going on Thursday night, and to make sure you are ready for the first shift, we’re bringing you our Senators vs. Lightning predictions and breakdowns. Ottawa (45-30-1 in 2024-25) ended a seven-season streak without the postseason but fell in the first round. Tampa Bay (47-27-8 in 2024-25) also fell in the first round of the postseason for the third straight season. They’ll start their pursuit of a further run with a 7:00 EST puck drop from the Benchmark International Arena in Tampa. If you’re looking to cross-check the books and put some cash in your pocket, check out more of our free NHL picks!
Senators look to extend season once again
The Senators finished fourth in the Atlantic last season and were able to end a nine-season playoff drought. Their 45 wins were their most since they won 48 in 2006-07. Ottawa finished the regular season on a 4-2-2 run before losing to Toronto, 4-2, in the first round of the playoffs.
Last season, the Senators were in the bottom half of the league in terms of scoring, averaging 2.95 goals per game. They were aggressive in their efforts to score, sitting eighth in the league with 2,403 shots. Their special teams registered 64 power play goals and nine shorthanded. The top four goal scorers from last season are all back in the mix, though winger Drake Batherson (26 goals last season) will start the season in IR. Brady Tkachuk had a team-high 29 goals last season, his fourth straight season of at least that many goals. He also finished fourth in the NFL with 123 penalty minutes.
Ottawa’s defense was 13th in the league last year with a 2.83 goals against average. They allowed 2,346 shots, tied for the 14th most. The top pairing is headed by Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub and the club acquired Jordan Spence from L.A., shoring things up on the third unit. Linus Ullmark was a massive reason for the team’s resurgence last season as the team allowed 49 fewer goals than they had a year ago after acquiring the former Vezina winner. He went 25-14-3 with a 2.72 goals against average last season. Leevi Merilainen (1.99 GAA in 12 games last season) steps up the be the full-time backup in the wake of Anton Forsberg’s departure.
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Injury notes
- RW Drake Batherson (upper body) IR
- LD Tyler Kleven (undisclosed) IR
Lightning stall out once again
For the fourth straight season, the Lightning won at least 45 games but also lost in the playoffs following their back-to-back Cup titles. They finished second in the Atlantic Division, went 7-5-1 down the stretch of the regular season, then lost in five games to eventual champs Florida in the first round.
The Tampa Bay offense was tops in the NHL last season in scoring, averaging 3.56 goals per game. They had a 12.5% shooting percentage, second best in the league behind 2,341 shots. The Lightning scored 60 goals on the power play and 11 short-handed. The team had four players with at least 80 points last season. Nikita Kucherov led the league with 121 points and was tied for the league lead with 84 assists. Brayden Point was on the tail end of many of those passes and he led the team with 42 goals, sixth most in the NHL. Jake Guentzel was one spot below him with 41 goals.
On the defensive end, Tampa Bay finished fourth in the league with a 2.63 goals against average. The penalty kill was sixth in the league 81.6% and they allowed a total of 2,311 shots. Victor Hedman continues to be one of the best d-men in the game and he should eventually be pair up with Janis Moser who is sitting out the first two games of the season as he serves a boarding suspension. Moser played three seasons in Arizona prior to linking up with Tampa Bay. Andrei Vasilvesky had an all-star campaign between the pipes with 38 wins, six shutouts and a 2.18 goals against average that was fourth best overall. Jonas Johansson (3.13 GAA in 19 games last season) will once again be the backup in net.
Injury notes
- LW Brandon Hagel (undisclosed) day-to-day
- LD Victor Hedman (undisclosed) day-to-day
- RD Erik Cernak (undisclosed) day-to-day
- LW Zemgus Girgensons (undisclosed) IR
- RW Nick Paul (upper body) IR
- LD Janis Moser (suspension) suspended for two games
Senators vs. Lightning Picks
Money Line Pick for Senators vs. Lightning
- Ottawa +137 (5 units)
These two split the four-game season series last year with each side winning their two games on home ice. Ullmark proved the real deal last season, boosting Ottawa up after moving on from Boston. When he faced the Lightning last, he stopped 31 of 32 shots for the win. The Lightning are banged up coming into this game, with their top defenseman dealing with a lingering issue while his partner will miss the first two games of the season on suspension. The Sens are more a grittier bunch, so they should be able to overcome their missing players more than Tampa Bay will. They’ll just need to clamp down on their top two lines and limit the shots against Ullmark. With it being just the first game of the season, it's probably their best opportunity to slow the Lightning's offense. Ottawa is 7-3 in the last ten games between these two teams.
Take the Senators sneaking one out on the road in the season opener.
Over/Under Pick for Senators vs. Lightning
- Under 6 (4 units)
This game does feature the league’s top offense from a year ago, complete with their top six goal scorers. They also had one of the better defenses in the league last season and are up against one of the lower scoring offenses from a season ago. What Ottawa lacks in offense, they make up for in defense and the addition of a top-notch goalie last season proved a massive difference maker for the club. All of that is still in play and I’m looking for them to feature that aspect of their game in the early goings. They are averaging a combined six goals per game over their last six meetings. With it being the first game of the season, I’m expecting a little bit of a slower start as players get their regular season legs under them.
Take the under.
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