Ottawa Senators vs Vegas Golden Knights Picks and Prediction - November 26, 2025
Use Code SSWC Wednesday evening National Hockey League action, and we have an Ottawa Senators vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction ready to rock and roll. Ottawa comes in off a 2-1 loss to the Kings on the road to fall to 11-11 on the year. Vegas is off a 5-1 loss to Utah on the road, which dropped them to 10-12 on the year. The Golden Knights won both meetings a year ago. Read on to see our Senators vs Golden Knights prediction.
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Offense Struggles In Loss To The Kings
Ottawa sits at 11-7-4 after a narrow 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on November 24. Fabian Zetterlund scored the lone goal for the Senators midway through the third period, assisted by Nikolas Matinpalo and Nick Jensen, but the Kings answered back minutes later to secure the win. Leevi Merilainen got the start in net and made 26 saves, but Ottawa couldn’t generate enough offense to overcome Los Angeles’ late push. The defeat snapped a brief two-game winning streak and highlighted the Senators’ ongoing struggle to finish games against strong defensive opponents.
The Senators’ offense has been steady, averaging 3.1 goals per game and ranking 11th in the league. Tim Stützle leads the way with 21 points, while Drake Batherson has chipped in 20 points and Shane Pinto adds 16 points. Claude Giroux continues to be a reliable veteran presence, winning faceoffs at an elite 70% clip, which has helped Ottawa rank first overall in faceoff percentage at 58.6%. Their power play has been effective at 22.5%, giving them a weapon in tight contests. However, the team has leaned heavily on its top six forwards, and secondary scoring remains inconsistent.
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Defensively, Ottawa has been less reliable, allowing 3.2 goals per game and ranking 24th overall. Linus Ullmark, who will get the start against Vegas, has posted a 2.95 GAA with eight wins, but the Senators’ penalty kill has been a major weakness at just 69.8%, the worst in the NHL. Thomas Chabot’s return from injury has helped stabilize the blue line, while Jake Sanderson continues to log heavy minutes and contribute offensively. Against Vegas, Ottawa will need Ullmark to be sharp and their penalty kill to hold up against one of the league’s better power plays.
Vegas Got Blasted By Utah
Vegas enters at 10-5-7 after a disappointing 5-1 loss to the Utah Mammoth on November 24. Ivan Barbashev scored the lone goal for the Golden Knights in the second period, assisted by Jack Eichel and Braeden Bowman, but Utah’s Logan Cooley stole the show with four goals and an assist. Vegas fired 34 shots but couldn’t solve Karel Vejmelka, who stopped 33 of them. The defeat capped a rough stretch for the Knights, who have now dropped three of their last four games, raising questions about consistency despite strong underlying numbers.
Offensively, Vegas has been balanced, averaging 3.1 goals per game and ranking 14th overall. Jack Eichel leads the team with 30 points, while Mitch Marner has added 21 points and Ivan Barbashev sits at 19 points. Pavel Dorofeyev has been a pleasant surprise with 11 goals, giving the Knights secondary scoring depth. Their power play has been sharp at 23.4%, ranking ninth in the league, and their faceoff numbers are strong at 54.4%, which helps them control possession. With Mark Stone back in the lineup, Vegas has more playmaking options, though they’ve struggled to convert chances consistently in recent outings.
Defensively, the Golden Knights have been solid overall, allowing 2.9 goals per game and ranking 15th. Akira Schmid, who will get the start against Ottawa, has been reliable with a 2.45 GAA and nine wins in 13 appearances. Shea Theodore and Noah Hanifin anchor the blue line, while Brayden McNabb provides physicality. The penalty kill has been respectable at 81%, but lapses in coverage have hurt them in recent games. Against Ottawa, Vegas will look to tighten up defensively while leaning on their stars to generate offense. If Schmid can hold steady and the Knights’ power play continues to click, they’ll have the tools to bounce back at home.
Ottawa Senators vs Vegas Golden Knights Pick
Senators vs Golden Knights Moneyline Pick
- Vegas -165 (5 Units)
Vegas feels like the right side here, especially with Akira Schmid set to start in net. He’s been steady with a 2.45 GAA and nine wins in 13 appearances, giving the Golden Knights confidence against an Ottawa team that has struggled defensively. Jack Eichel continues to drive the offense with 30 points, while Mitch Marner and Ivan Barbashev provide balance across the top lines. Add in Pavel Dorofeyev’s surprising 11 goals, and Vegas has multiple scoring threats that can exploit Ottawa’s penalty kill, which ranks dead last in the NHL at 69.8%. With a power play clicking at 23.4%, the Knights have the special teams edge in this matchup.
Ottawa has shown flashes, but their defensive issues and inconsistent goaltending make them vulnerable against a team with Vegas’ depth. Linus Ullmark has been serviceable with a 2.95 GAA, yet the Senators allow 3.2 goals per game and struggle to protect leads late. While Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson have provided offensive punch, the Senators rely heavily on their top six, and Vegas’ ability to roll multiple lines gives them the advantage. With Schmid stabilizing the crease and Eichel leading a balanced attack, the Golden Knights look well-positioned to bounce back at home and cover against Ottawa.
Senators vs Golden Knights Over/Under Pick
- Under 5.5 (4 Units)
The Under 5.5 feels like the right angle because both Ottawa and Vegas have shown defensive structure that can slow the pace. The Senators allow 3.2 goals per game, but Linus Ullmark has been steady enough to keep them competitive, and their ability to dominate faceoffs at 58.6% helps limit extended pressure. Vegas, meanwhile, ranks third in shots against at just 25.3 per game, with Akira Schmid posting a strong 2.45 GAA in net. While both teams average just over three goals offensively, neither has been consistently explosive, and with two capable goaltenders plus disciplined defensive play, this matchup sets up for a tighter, lower-scoring contest that stays beneath the 5.5 total.
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