Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Prediction - November 24, 2025
Use Code SSWC National Hockey League action on Monday evening, and we have a Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction ready to rock and roll. The Flyers enter this game off a 6-3 home win over the Devils to move to 11-9 on the year. Tampa Bay enters off a 5-3 road win over Washington, which puts them at 12-9 on the year. Philadelphia took two of the three meetings a year ago. Read on to see our Flyers vs Lightning prediction.
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Flyers Are Off To A Solid Start
Sitting at 11-6-3, the Flyers made headlines in their last outing with a 6-3 win over the Devils on November 23, a game that will be remembered for their franchise-record three goals in just 26 seconds. Tyson Foerster scored twice in that burst, Matvei Michkov added another, and the building erupted as Philadelphia seized control early. Bobby Brink and Trevor Zegras added insurance tallies, while Dan Vladar stopped 32 shots to secure the victory. It was a night of emotion too, as the team honored Bernie Parent, and the Flyers responded with one of their most electric performances of the season.
Beyond the fireworks, Philadelphia has leaned on balanced contributions across the roster. Trevor Zegras leads the team with 21 points, while Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett continue to provide steady offense on the wings. Sean Couturier remains the two-way anchor, winning faceoffs and setting up teammates, while Tyson Foerster’s scoring touch has added another layer to their attack. The Flyers aren’t a high-volume shooting team, ranking near the bottom in shots per game, but they’ve been opportunistic and efficient when chances arise. Their young core, including Michkov and Brink, has injected energy and creativity, making them more dangerous than their raw numbers might suggest.
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Defensively, Philadelphia has been one of the league’s better units, allowing just 2.8 goals per game and ranking top ten in penalty kill efficiency at 85%. Travis Sanheim and Cam York log heavy minutes on the blue line, while Emil Andrae and Jamie Drysdale have shown promise as puck movers. Vladar has been steady in net, but Samuel Ersson is slated to start tonight, bringing a 3.30 GAA into the crease. The Flyers’ ability to limit shots — only 25.9 per game against, sixth-best in the NHL — has kept them competitive even when their offense stalls. Against Tampa Bay, their defensive structure will be tested by elite scorers, but the Flyers have shown they can frustrate opponents with disciplined play.
The Bolts Have Won Three In A Row
At 12-7-2, Tampa Bay enters this matchup riding momentum from a 5-3 win over Washington on November 23, where Brandon Hagel stole the show with two goals and two assists. Nikita Kucherov added a goal and two helpers before leaving with an injury, while Anthony Cirelli and Oliver Bjorkstrand also found the back of the net. The Lightning exploded for four goals in the first period, including a shorthanded tally from Hagel, and held off a late Capitals push to secure their third straight victory. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 29 saves, steadying the team in the final frame.
Offensively, Tampa Bay has been steady, averaging 3.1 goals per game with contributions spread across the lineup. Jake Guentzel leads the team with 22 points, while Kucherov has matched him with 10 goals and 12 assists. Hagel’s recent surge has been critical, and Cirelli continues to provide secondary scoring with 14 points. Brayden Point has been quieter than usual, but his playmaking remains valuable, and Victor Hedman anchors the blue line with 12 assists. The Lightning’s power play sits at 17.6%, middle of the pack, but their ability to generate offense at even strength has kept them in the mix in the Atlantic Division.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has been strong, allowing 2.9 goals per game and boasting the league’s second-best penalty kill at 87.3%. Vasilevskiy remains the backbone, carrying a 2.52 GAA and eight wins in 15 starts. Hedman and Erik Cernak provide stability on the back end, while Darren Raddysh and J.J. Moser have chipped in offensively from the blue line. The Lightning do take penalties at a high rate — ranking second in penalty minutes — but their kill has been reliable enough to offset that aggression. Against Philadelphia, Tampa Bay’s challenge will be maintaining discipline while leaning on their stars to break through a Flyers defense that has been stingy all season.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Pick
Flyers vs Lightning Moneyline Pick
- Tampa Bay -162 (5 Units)
Tampa Bay looks like the stronger side here, and backing them makes sense given the way they’ve been playing. The Lightning are averaging just over 3.1 goals per game and have multiple scoring threats who can tilt the ice in their favor. Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov both sit at 22 points, while Brandon Hagel has caught fire with nine goals and ten assists. Add in Anthony Cirelli’s steady two-way play and Victor Hedman’s ability to drive offense from the blue line, and Tampa has the kind of depth that can break down Philadelphia’s defense. With Andrei Vasilevskiy in net carrying a 2.52 GAA, the Lightning have the backbone to match their scoring punch.
On the other side, the Flyers have been scrappy but inconsistent offensively, ranking near the bottom of the league at 2.8 goals per game and generating the second-fewest shots per night. Their defense has been solid, but Tampa’s power play and even-strength scoring should test them in ways they haven’t seen recently. Philadelphia leans heavily on Trevor Zegras and Travis Konecny to create offense, and if Tampa can neutralize those two, the Flyers don’t have the same depth of finishers. With the Lightning riding momentum from their win over Washington and boasting one of the league’s best penalty kills at 87.3%, they’re well-positioned to control pace and come out on top in this matchup.
Flyers vs Lightning Over/Under Pick
- Under 5.5 (4 Units)
The Under 5.5 feels like the right angle because both teams have shown defensive stability that can slow the pace. Philadelphia ranks top ten in goals against at 2.8 per game and limits opponents to just 25.9 shots per night, while Tampa Bay sits at 2.9 goals allowed per game with the league’s second-best penalty kill at 87.3%. With Samuel Ersson and Andrei Vasilevskiy slated to start, both clubs have goaltending capable of keeping this matchup tight. Add in the Flyers’ low shot volume and Tampa’s disciplined defensive structure, and this game sets up more like a grind than a shootout, making the Under 5.5 a strong play.
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