Pittsburgh Penguins vs Dallas Stars Prediction and Picks - December 7, 2025
National League Hockey action on Sunday evening, and we have a Pittsburgh Penguins vs Dallas Stars Prediction ready to roll for you. The Penguins come in off a 4-3 road win over Tampa Bay to move to 14-12 on the year. The Stars come in off a 4-1 home win over the Sharks to move to 119-10 on the year. Dallas has won four of the last five in this series. Read on to see our Penguins vs Stars prediction.
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Penguins Grab Big Road Win Over Tampa Bay
The Penguins’ most recent game was a 4–3 win over Tampa Bay on December 4, where Evgeni Malkin scored twice, including the game‑winner with under three minutes left, and Tristan Jarry stopped 37 shots. Pittsburgh built a 3–0 lead with goals from Ville Koivunen, Malkin, and Ben Kindel, but the Lightning stormed back before Malkin’s late strike sealed it. The victory pushed the Penguins to 14‑7‑5 and gave them points in five of their last six games.
Offensively, Pittsburgh has been sharp, averaging 3.2 goals per game (10th) while leading the NHL in power‑play efficiency at 34.4%. Sidney Crosby continues to drive the attack with 18 goals and 11 assists, while Malkin has chipped in nine goals and 20 assists. Bryan Rust and Anthony Mantha provide secondary scoring, and Erik Karlsson has been a steady playmaker from the blue line. The Penguins don’t generate a ton of shots (27.2 per game, 19th), but their puck movement and finishing on the man‑advantage have kept them dangerous.
Defensively, Pittsburgh allows 2.7 goals per game (8th) and owns the 4th‑ranked penalty kill at 84.8%, a balance that has kept them competitive even when the offense cools. Jarry has been reliable with a .913 save percentage, and the team has limited opponents to 28.8 shots per game (22nd). Discipline has been a strength, ranking 2nd in fewest penalty minutes, which helps them avoid extended defensive pressure. With Crosby and Malkin both in form, the Penguins enter Dallas confident but aware they’ll need to match the Stars’ depth and pace.
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Dallas Easily Top San Jose At Home
Dallas’ most recent game was a 4–1 win over San Jose on December 5, where Mikko Rantanen had a goal and two assists, Jason Robertson scored his 18th of the season, and Jake Oettinger made 16 saves. The Stars broke open a tight game with three third‑period goals, extending their point streak to nine games (7‑0‑2) and improving to 19‑5‑5 overall.
Offensively, Dallas averages 3.4 goals per game (5th) and owns the 3rd‑ranked power play at 31.5%, a lethal combination when paired with their faceoff strength (52.4%, 7th). Robertson leads the team with 18 goals, Wyatt Johnston has chipped in 16, and Rantanen has been a dynamic addition with 13 goals and 25 assists. Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen round out a balanced attack that doesn’t rely on volume shooting (26.0 shots per game, 26th) but thrives on efficiency and puck control.
Defensively, Dallas has been one of the league’s best, allowing just 2.6 goals per game (3rd) and limiting opponents to 28.0 shots per game (18th). Oettinger has been steady in net with a .906 save percentage, and the Stars’ penalty kill sits at 80.9% (17th). Their physicality shows in penalty minutes (252, 14th), but they’ve managed to stay disciplined enough to avoid costly breakdowns. With Robertson and Rantanen driving the offense and Oettinger anchoring the back end, Dallas enters this matchup as a tough home favorite, looking to extend their unbeaten run against a Penguins team that has also been surging.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Dallas Stars Pick
Penguins vs Stars Moneyline Pick
- Dallas -173 (4 Units)
Dallas looks like the right side here because the Stars are rolling, fresh off a 4–1 win over San Jose on December 5 where Mikko Rantanen had a goal and two assists, Jason Robertson scored his 18th of the season, and Jake Oettinger turned away 16 shots. That victory extended their point streak to nine games (7‑0‑2), and it showed how balanced this team is — they don’t need to overwhelm with shot volume, but their efficiency and depth scoring consistently tilt games in their favor. With Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, and Rantanen all producing, Dallas has the offensive firepower to test Pittsburgh’s defense, even with the Penguins riding momentum from their own win over Tampa Bay.
The other angle is Dallas’ defensive structure, which has been among the league’s best, allowing just 2.6 goals per game (3rd) while pairing that with a top‑five offense at 3.4 goals per game. Oettinger has been steady in net, and the Stars’ ability to control faceoffs (52.4%, 7th) and rebound (46.3 per game, 3rd) gives them extra possession advantages that wear opponents down. Pittsburgh’s power play is elite, but Dallas counters with discipline and depth, making them tough to crack over 60 minutes. With the Stars unbeaten in regulation over their last nine and playing at home, laying the number with Dallas feels justified.
Penguins vs Stars Over/Under Pick
- Under 6 (5 Units)
The Under 6 makes sense in Penguins–Stars because both teams have leaned on strong defensive play and reliable goaltending to win games. Pittsburgh just beat Tampa Bay 4–3, but they rank 8th in goals against (2.7 per game) and own the 4th‑best penalty kill at 84.8%, which helps them keep opponents in check. Dallas, meanwhile, held San Jose to just one goal in their 4–1 win on December 5, and they sit 3rd in goals allowed (2.6 per game) with Jake Oettinger anchoring the net. Both clubs have top‑tier special teams — Pittsburgh’s power play and Dallas’ penalty kill — but their defensive structures and disciplined play suggest this matchup is more likely to grind below the total than turn into a shootout.
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