St Louis Blues vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction and Picks - November 18, 2025
Use Code SSWC Tuesday evening on the NHL ice, and we have a St Louis Blues vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction ready to rock and roll. The Blues are at 6-15 on the year and they are off a 4-1 home loss to Vegas. Toronto is off a 3-2 loss at Chicago, which was their 5th loss in a row. Can the Leafs snap their skid? Read on to see our Blues vs Maple Leafs prediction.
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It Has Been A Tough Start For The Blues
The Blues enter their matchup against Toronto coming off a 4-1 loss to Vegas on November 15, where Joel Hofer allowed four goals on limited shots. That defeat capped a rough stretch in which St. Louis dropped six of its last ten games, including high-scoring setbacks against Philadelphia and Washington. Despite a few bright spots like a shutout win over Buffalo and narrow victories against Calgary and Edmonton, the team has struggled to find consistency. Their offensive production sits at 2.8 goals per game, ranking 24th in the league, while their defensive numbers have been even more concerning, allowing 3.8 goals per contest—last in the NHL.
Individually, Jordan Kyrou and Jimmy Snuggerud have been among the more reliable forwards, each posting 11 points, while Robert Thomas leads the team with 12 points in just 15 games. Pavel Buchnevich has chipped in two power-play goals, and Dmitri Dvorsky has shown flashes with two goals in nine appearances, both coming on the man advantage. On the back end, Justin Faulk has contributed 10 points, and Cam Fowler has added eight assists, though both carry negative plus/minus ratings that reflect the team’s defensive struggles. Brayden Schenn has been strong in the faceoff circle at 54.17%, but his -13 rating underscores the challenges St. Louis faces in its own zone.
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Goaltending remains a major issue. Jordan Binnington has a 3.34 goals-against average with a 4-8 record, while Hofer’s 4.04 GAA highlights the team’s difficulty keeping pucks out of the net. The penalty kill has been particularly costly, ranking 30th at just 70.8%, while discipline has also been a problem with 134 penalty minutes, placing them near the bottom of the league. The Blues’ power play, however, has been a relative strength at 22.9%, ranking 10th overall. Against Toronto, St. Louis will need that man-advantage unit to generate offense early while tightening up defensively to avoid being overwhelmed by a deeper attack. This game offers the Blues a chance to rebound from recent struggles, but it will demand sharper execution in all three zones.
Leafs Fall Short Against Chicago
Toronto heads into this contest against St. Louis after a 2-3 loss to Chicago on November 15, where Joseph Woll allowed three goals in his lone start of the season. That defeat marked the Leafs’ fourth straight loss, following setbacks against Los Angeles, Boston, and Carolina. Despite earlier wins over Utah, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Calgary, Toronto has struggled to maintain momentum in November. Their offense remains one of the league’s best at 3.6 goals per game, ranking fourth overall, but defensive lapses have been costly, with 3.8 goals against per game placing them 31st in the NHL.
The Leafs’ forward group has been highly productive, led by William Nylander’s 26 points in 16 games and John Tavares’ 24 points in 19 appearances. Auston Matthews has added 14 points with nine goals, while rookie Matthew Knies has impressed with 22 points, including 17 assists. Morgan Rielly continues to drive play from the blue line with 15 points, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson has chipped in 13 points with steady minutes. Depth scoring has also been present, with Nicholas Robertson and Bobby McMann each contributing five goals, while Max Domi has been effective in the faceoff circle at 53.24%. Toronto’s overall faceoff win rate of 55.9% ranks second in the league, giving them a consistent possession edge.
Goaltending has been less reliable. Anthony Stolarz has carried the bulk of the workload with a 3.51 goals-against average and a 6-6 record, while Dennis Hildeby has struggled in limited action with a 3.81 GAA and three losses. The Leafs’ penalty kill sits at 78.2%, ranking 20th, while their power play has been middle of the pack at 17.0%. Against St. Louis, Toronto’s offensive depth and faceoff dominance should give them opportunities to control play, but defensive breakdowns and inconsistent goaltending remain concerns. If the Leafs can tighten up in their own zone, they’ll be well-positioned to exploit the Blues’ penalty kill struggles and rebound from their recent skid.
St Louis Blues vs Toronto Maple Leafs Pick
Blues vs Maple Leafs Moneyline Pick
- Toronto -127 (3 Units)
Toronto looks like the stronger side heading into this matchup. Despite dropping four straight, the Leafs’ offensive depth has been a clear advantage, with William Nylander, John Tavares, Auston Matthews, and Matthew Knies all producing at high levels. Their 3.6 goals per game ranks fourth in the league, and their dominance in the faceoff circle at 55.9% should allow them to control possession against a Blues team that has struggled defensively. St. Louis enters with the worst goals-against average in the NHL at 3.8 and a penalty kill ranked last at 70.8%, which sets up Toronto’s forwards to capitalize on mistakes and create sustained pressure.
The Leafs’ biggest concern remains in net, where Anthony Stolarz and Dennis Hildeby have both allowed over 3.5 goals per game, but St. Louis’ lack of offensive consistency may ease that burden. The Blues average just 2.8 goals per game, ranking 24th, and their recent losses have highlighted defensive breakdowns and poor discipline. If Toronto can avoid costly turnovers and limit penalties, their scoring depth and possession edge should tilt the game in their favor. This matchup presents a strong opportunity for the Leafs to snap their skid and take advantage of a struggling Blues team.
Blues vs Maple Leafs Over/Under Pick
- Under 6 (1 Unit)
The Under six looks appealing given the way both teams have been trending. St. Louis has averaged just 2.8 goals per game, ranking near the bottom of the league, while Toronto’s recent skid has seen them score three or fewer goals in four straight losses. Both clubs have defensive concerns, but the Blues’ struggles on offense combined with Toronto’s inconsistent finishing suggest a tighter contest than their season averages imply. With special teams likely to play a role and both goaltenders looking to steady their performances, this matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring outcome that stays under the six-goal mark.
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