Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins Picks and Prediction for Monday, October 13, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Boston Bruins look to stay perfect when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning at TD Garden on Monday at 1:00 PM ET on NHL Network. Boston has started the year 3-0-0, including two strong home wins, while Tampa Bay sits at 0-2-0 and is searching for its first victory. The Lightning dropped a 5-3 game to the Devils on Saturday, while the Bruins handled the Sabres 3-1 behind another strong performance from Jeremy Swayman. Net the value: NHL predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins with trends that matter.
Tampa Bay Lightning Look To Avoid 0-3 Start
Tampa Bay’s early-season slide continued Saturday night with a 5-3 loss to New Jersey, marking the franchise’s first 0-2 start since 2008-09. Defensive shortcomings and struggles in goal have been the story. The Lightning are allowing 5.00 goals per game while scoring 3.50, giving up far too many open chances in front of Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose 4.67 goals-against average and .855 save percentage are much higher than the veteran netminder has for career marks. Nikita Kucherov remains the leader in attack with two goals through two games, while Brayden Point leads the team with four points and three assists.
The Lightning’s offense hasn’t been the problem. Tampa Bay has generated goals in both contests, including multi-point nights from veterans Point and Kucherov. However, defensive lapses have put them behind in games early. Against the Devils, Tampa Bay fell behind 3-0 in the opening period before rallying with goals from Darren Raddysh, Yanni Gourde, and Ryan McDonagh. That push showed the team’s toughness, but the team’s inability to clear rebounds and protect the slot continues to hurt. The power play and penalty kill have been productive, going 2-for-6 on the power play (33.3%) while killing penalties at an 87.5% rate, but that hasn’t offset the 10 total goals allowed in two games.
The blue line is the weak link with J.J. Moser sidelined, forcing Jon Cooper to shuffle pairings. Tampa Bay has been outshot by an average of 31.5 to 21.0 and sits at 30 penalty minutes already. Reducing defensive zone turnovers and getting Vasilevskiy comfortable will be key. With the Bruins averaging 28.7 shots per game, the Lightning must tighten coverage and reduce time spent chasing the puck.
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Injury Report: J.J. Moser (D) and Scott Sabourin (RW) are out, while Zemgus Girgensons (C) and Niko Huuhtanen (RW) are on injured reserve. Nick Paul (LW) is out long-term.
Boston Bruins Continue Perfect Start At Home
The Bruins continue to look like one of the NHL’s most disciplined teams. Saturday’s 3-1 win over Buffalo showcased Boston’s game plan for the season, with Jeremy Swayman stopping 21 of 22 shots to move to 2-0-0 with a 1.00 GAA and .966 save percentage. Boston’s offense is strong, scoring 3.33 goals per game behind Elias Lindholm’s four points (2G, 2A) and David Pastrnak’s experience and goal-scoring ability. The Bruins have opened the season with wins over Washington, Chicago, and Buffalo.
Defensively, the Bruins are playing like they did two seasons ago, smothering opponents in the neutral zone and blocking shooting lanes. The Bruins have allowed just five goals in three games, averaging 27.3 shots against per contest and posting a perfect 100% penalty kill rate. Offensively, the power play has a success rate of 18.2%, converting twice through three games. Pavel Zacha and Mark Kastelic each found the net Saturday, while Sean Kuraly sealed the win with an empty-net goal. Boston has scored at least three goals in each game and looks solid in transition, using speed on the forecheck to force turnovers and create open looks for Pastrnak and Lindholm.
The team’s defense has held strong despite missing Hampus Lindholm. Charlie McAvoy continues to lead the top pair, while Jordan Harris impressed in his Bruins debut against Buffalo. With Jeremy Swayman and Joonas Korpisalo splitting starts effectively, Boston’s goaltending tandem looks to be back to form after a down season in 2024-25.
Injury Report: Defenseman Hampus Lindholm remains out with a lower-body injury. No other significant injuries have been reported.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins Pick
Spread Pick for Lightning vs. Bruins
- Â Boston Bruins -1.5 (+115) (4 Units)
Boston has looked far better through the first week of the season, and their home dominance should continue against a Lightning team searching for answers at the blue line. The Bruins have outscored opponents 10-5 while killing every penalty faced, and Jeremy Swayman is playing like he did two seasons ago. Tampa Bay’s defensive issues, allowing 10 goals and over 30 shots per game, make this matchup a tough one, especially against a Bruins team averaging 3.33 goals per game and thriving at TD Garden. Boston’s disciplined defense, strong goaltending, and superior power play and penalty kill tilt this matchup heavily in their favor. The Lightning’s penalty troubles (30 PIM in two games) could give Boston plenty of power-play chances to build a big lead. Take the Bruins to stay perfect and cover the puck line at home.
Over/Under Pick for Lightning vs. Bruins
- Under 6.0 (5 Units)
While Tampa Bay’s first two games have been high scoring, the Bruins’ defense and excellent goaltending should slow the pace. Boston has allowed just 1.67 goals per game and limited quality scoring chances with tight defense, forechecking, and clogging up the blue line. The Lightning, though capable offensively, will face one of the league’s best defensive pairs and a red-hot goaltender in Swayman. With Boston’s methodical style and penalty kill erasing Tampa Bay’s power play chances, this game should be lower scoring than the first two for Tampa Bay. Expect Boston to dictate the tempo and keep total goals around five in another home win.
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